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中国2025年贸易顺差将达到创纪录的1.2万亿美元

JOJOyu 4354
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@Do-not-be-sheep It will take a few years to move manufacturing out of China but it must be done, the USA and Europe need to introduce sweeping legislation to completely disconnect from China by making it illegal to invest in China, setting quotas for Chinese imports, massive tariffs, sanctions, etc. And keep escalating the barriers until Chinese trade with europe and the USA is balanced (it will take less than 3 years). Chinese companies will survive by moving their operations to other countries - this is OK - the next result is that most of money from exports will stay in these new countries - improving their infrastructure, education, and health care. This will go along way to balancing global trade and improving the state of have not countries while denying China the revenue they need to build their military ,

将制造业从中国转移出去需要几年时间,但必须这样做,美国和欧洲需要出台全面的立法,通过规定在中国投资为非法、设定中国进口配额、大规模征收关税、制裁等措施,彻底与中国断绝关系。并不断升级壁垒,直到中国与欧洲和美国的贸易达到平衡(这需要不到3年的时间)。中国公司将通过把业务转移到其他国家来生存--这没有问题--接下来的结果是出口所得的大部分资金将留在这些新国家--改善它们的基础设施、教育和医疗保健。这将有助于平衡全球贸易,改善“无出口”国家的状况,同时使中国无法获得建军所需的收入。

@jishe8957 If you can do what you say, India has already become a developed country, so why does it still need to compete with China for its small interests?Really stupid.

如果你能做到你说的那样,印度已经是发达国家了,为什么还要和中国争夺那点蝇头小利呢?真蠢。

@jishe8957 @Do-not-be-sheep Some people said 30 years ago that China was going to collapse; 20 years ago, some people said that China would never surpass Japan; Ten years ago, some people said that China would be crushed by the strategic transformation of the United States; Five years ago, an Indian said to me, "Now that the United States is in a trade war with China, China's foreign trade will collapse this year." It’s been 30 years, can you guys say something that can be achieved? Can you Indians learn the word "now" instead of always saying "future"? I really have no interest in communicating with you people who can do nothing but brag.

30年前,有人说中国会崩溃; 20年前,有人说中国永远超越不了日本; 10年前,有人说中国会被美国的战略转型击垮; 5年前,一个印度人对我说:"现在美国跟中国打贸易战,中国的对外贸易今年就会崩溃。” 30年过去了,你们能说点能实现的吗? 你们印度人能不能学学“现在”这个词,别老是说“未来”? 我真的没兴趣和你们这些只会吹牛的人交流。

@jishe8957 @Do-not-be-sheep 30 years ago some people said that China was going to collapse; 20 years ago, some people said that China’s GDP would never surpass Japan’s; Ten years ago, some people said that China would definitely be overwhelmed by the United States’ “Rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific” strategy; Five years ago, an Indian commented to me here like you, "The United States is in a trade war with China, and China's foreign trade will definitely collapse." ...I have heard too many boring attacks on China over the years. Compared with them, you are just a little hamster. Indians should say "now" more than "will", otherwise you will always be a hamster.

30年前,有人说中国会崩溃; 20年前,有人说中国永远超越不了日本; 10年前,有人说中国会被美国的战略转型击垮; 5年前,一位印度人像你一样在这里对我评论说:"现在美国跟中国打贸易战,中国的对外贸易今年就会崩溃。” ......这些年来,我听到了太多对中国的无聊攻击。与他们相比,你只是一只小仓鼠。 印度人应该多说“现在”而不是“将来”,否则你永远是一只仓鼠。

@angrydad1907 That’s so weird…. For the past 30 years I’ve heard how the Chinese economy will collapse.

太奇怪了.... 过去30年,我一直听说中国经济会崩溃。

@ranjusranjus143 Yesterday a popular Indian youtube channel proclaimed that Chinese banks have collapsed

昨天,印度一个受欢迎的youtube频道宣称中国的银行已经倒闭了。

@harunamusacloud4843 @ranjusranjus143 anything coming out of an Indian channel about China is expected to be negative..they've taken the American route when it comes to truth about China

印度频道发布的有关中国的任何消息都预计是负面的……当谈到有关中国的真相时,他们采取的是美国的口径。

@SumTingWong888 Are you a 5 years old. What does fallen import from n China tell you. They can export all they want l. When what they export are heavily subsidize

你是五岁小孩吗?中国的进口下降说明了什么?当他们出口的产品受到大量补贴时,他们想出口什么就出口什么。

@angrydad1907 @SumTingWong888 the US ‘fallen’ imports from China is due to the US increased imports from countries like Mexico and Vietnam. Now if you’re a bit curious, you could go have a look at China’s increased exports to countries like Mexico and Vietnam and connect the dots.

美国从中国的进口“下降”是因为美国增加了从墨西哥和越南等国的进口。如果你有些好奇,你可以去看看中国对墨西哥和越南等国的出口增加情况,然后把这些点联系起来。

@SumTingWong888 @angrydad1907 is that why China is begging for foreign investment ?

这就是中国乞求外国投资的原因吗?

@angrydad1907 @SumTingWong888 I’m not Chinese, I’m white as snow… I’m just not a hater like you

我不是中国人,我肤白如雪......我只是不像你一样恨中国人。

@waiyee1995 @SumTingWong888 wtf are you smoking why will they subsidize other countries consumption

你抽了什么?为什么他们要补贴其他国家的消费者?

@SumTingWong888 @waiyee1995 yeah I’m smoking on a Chinese pack. You know what I mean China boy

是啊,我抽的是中国烟。你了解我的意思,中国男孩。

@PhilipWong55 If one country adds 10 billion dollars of debt daily while the other gains a trade surplus of 3 billion dollars daily, which country is broke?

如果一个国家每天增加100亿美元的债务,而另一个国家每天获得30亿美元的贸易顺差,哪个国家会破产?

@donttryitjohn364 If one country posts record surpluses then other countries must absorb those surpluses. The US has played that role for decades now. China has exploited free trade for a long time now to pursue their investment-led growth model. That will change in the coming years as the rest of the world is fed-up with it. I love how you glorify making things and sending it to other countries for IOUs that will just be inflated to near worthlessness. Don't be naive and see the world for what it is not what you want it to be

如果一个国家出现创纪录的盈余,那么其他国家就必须吸收这些盈余。几十年来,美国一直扮演着这个角色。长期以来,中国一直利用自由贸易来追求以投资为主导的增长模式。未来几年,随着世界其他国家对此感到厌倦,这种情况将会改变。我喜欢你美化制造东西,然后把它送到其他国家去换取欠条,而这些欠条只会被膨胀到几乎一文不值。别天真了,看看这个世界的本来面目而不是你想让它变成的样子。

@AIPretendingToBeHuman 208.81B drop in imports -- "Sign of Weak Domestic Demand" or an alternate explanation may be local companies are replacing foreign imports. I'm not an expert but I can imagine a Chinese consumer buying a 15k car, instead of a 25k European or American import and putting the 10k in the bank. It might look bad on the China's GDP number; but the consumer would be happy. As a US citizen, I wish I had that problem -- but the only option available to me is a 40k Tesla.

进口下降2088.1亿--“国内需求疲软的迹象”,或者另一种解释可能是本地公司正在替代外国进口。虽然我不是专家,但我可以想象中国消费者购买一辆1.5万美元的汽车,而不是2.5万美元的欧美进口车,然后省下来的1万美元存入银行。虽然这可能会影响中国的GDP数据,但消费者会很高兴。作为一名美国公民,我希望我也能遇到这样的问题,但我唯一的选择是一辆价值4万美元的特斯拉汽车。

@kl9518 All my friends and relatives in Hong Kong are buying Chinese products. They are just better quality and value now. BYD, Volvo, Polestar, MG, xiaomi, Huawei, Dji, Lenovo

我在香港(特区)的亲戚朋友都在买中国大陆的产品。 现在中国产品(比如比亚迪、沃尔沃、极星、名爵、小米、华为、大疆、联想)的质量和价值都更棒。

@matsmcmats Wishful thinking. They are hoarding their cash because the future looks kind of uncertain.

这只是一厢情愿,他们囤积现金是因为未来看起来有点不确定。

@kamsunleong6648 @matsmcmats Wishing thinking. China is still the largest car market in the world. They are still travelling the world. More than any other country.

这只是一厢情愿。中国仍然是世界上最大的汽车市场,他们仍在环游世界,比任何其他国家都多。

@danielli9167 chip. China used to import alot. Now alot chips are made inside China by Chinese companies.

芯片。中国过去需要进口很多芯片,现在很多芯片都是由中国公司在中国制造的。

@ZweiZwolf Pretty much. The Chinese are importing less because imports are not competitive with domestic Chinese goods. I know several families in China who replaced their BMWs & Mercedes with Chinese EVs last year. The Chinese cars were substantially less expensive than their German counterparts, with better performance and lower operating costs. They're not hurting for consumer goods which they can purchase domestically at similarly excellent prices and quality. As a result, China has very low inflation, which keeps their GDP down.

差不多吧。中国减少进口是因为进口商品与中国国产商品相比没有竞争力。我认识几个中国家庭,他们去年把宝马和奔驰换成了中国的电动汽车。中国汽车的价格大大低于德国汽车,而且性能更好,运营成本更低。他们在国内也能买到物美价廉的消费品。因此,中国的通货膨胀率非常低,这使得他们的GDP持续走低。

@omegabulldog5001 @matsmcmats Hoarding? More like SAVINGS! We Chinese SAVE because that's how we were taught growing up, saving up is in our BLOOD!

囤积?这更像是储蓄!我们中国人储蓄是因为我们从小就受到这样的教育,储蓄是我们的天性!

@lisa.e5776 3 of the reasons for Chinese people to spend money on are housing, education and medication. Nowadays, the Chinese government has subsidiaring education and medication of their people. The Chinese has more than enough for consumptions but most of them prefer to save money, for the future ��

中国人花钱的三个原因是住房、教育和医疗。 如今,中国政府对人民的教育和医疗进行补贴。 中国人的消费能力绰绰有余,但大多数人更愿意把钱存起来,留给未来。

@Enfinauniverso China used to spend more on imported chips than imported oil. That could be part of the reason.

中国过去花在进口芯片上的钱比进口石油还多,这可能是部分原因。

@thisiskevin1000 Today, and in no particular order, electric vehicles (EVs), solar panels, machinery and equipment, semiconductors, aircraft components and aerospace products, chemicals and electronic devices are the biggest source of exports.

如今,电动汽车(EV)、太阳能电池板、机械设备、半导体、飞机零部件和航空航天产品、化学品和电子设备是中国最大的出口来源,排名不分先后。

@izajahmed8863 Chips are being made locally.. still not at the level to demand but it's gonna be there in 2-3 years.. west self destructing and there is no way they can compete with China as they keep prices exaggerated

芯片正在中国本地生产,虽然还没有达到需求水平,但2-3年后就会达到。西方正在自我毁灭,他们没有办法与中国竞争,因为他们一直在抬高价格。

@ZweiZwolf At the rate things are going, China won't be importing much of either by the end of the decade. China's got a LOT of chips capacity coming on line over the next few years, and imports of older chip tech are collapsing. Samsung is already seeing big revenue drops, and we're starting to see the same at Intel, Nvidia and Qualcomm. This will accelerate even further as China continues to push 5nm and more advanced nodes, further reducing the range of what China needs vs what the West is allowed to sell. As for oil, China probably hit Peak Oil last year and their renewables and nuclear push is going strong. Last year, China added more solar than the rest of the world combined. This year, China has twice as much solar & wind under construction as the rest of the world combined, along with more nuclear approved and under construction than anywhere else.

按照目前的发展速度,到本十年末,中国也不会进口太多芯片。未来几年,中国将有大量芯片产能投产,而旧芯片技术的进口正在崩溃。三星的收入已经大幅下降,英特尔、英伟达和高通也开始出现同样的情况。随着中国继续推进5纳米和更先进的节点,这种情况将进一步加速,从而进一步缩小中国需求与西方允许销售的范围。至于石油,中国很可能在去年就达到了石油峰值,而且他们对可再生能源和核能的推动也很强劲。去年,中国新增的太阳能发电量超过了世界其他国家的总和。今年,中国在建的太阳能和风能项目是世界其他国家总和的两倍,已批准和在建的核电项目也比其他任何地方都多。

@piderryder- Weak domestic demand? China is a manufacturing powerhouse, why would they even need to import much? This reporting is always a pain to watch

内需疲软?中国是制造业强国,为什么还需要大量进口? 这种报道总是让人看不下去

@morganangel340 Considering chips where the main imports, and China replace more and more imported chips, no surprise imports fall.

考虑到芯片是主要进口商品,而中国取代了越来越多的进口芯片,进口下降也就不足为奇了。

@jason-us8pc WHO IS THE China EXPERT THAT SAYS China IS COLLAPSING?

说中国正在崩溃的中国问题专家是谁?

@Luming-di9rf The same expert who says the the US economy is at its strongest it's ever been.

和说美国经济正处于有史以来最强劲的时期的那位专家是同一个人。

@scientistlarry6313 China does not print global reserve currency. So it is trying to increase export and reduce imports. Using US method of printing money and buying goods, it is a non-starter for China.

中国不印全球储备货币。因此,中国正在努力增加出口并减少进口。用美国印的钞票购买商品的做法对中国来说是不可行的。

@ssuwandi3240 They did very recently thru $50, billion bonds issuance

他们最近发行了500亿美元的债券。

@ssuwandi3240 Plus adjusting the mid point daily in Yuan conversations. Dollar got zero manipulation like your beloved foreign country

此外,他们每天调整人民币汇率中间价,而美元就像你心爱的外国一样没有受到任何操纵。

@billinsf88 @ssuwandi3240 but the bonds issued wasn’t used to support a deficit like your “beloved country.

但发行的债券并不像你“心爱的国家”那样用于支持赤字。

@ssuwandi3240 @SaretGnasoh China has stated they're expecting a 3% DEFICIT due to property bust. Oops slowdown. You should help your beloved by spending more IN China Keyboard warrior alone is pretty worthless

中国已经表示由于房地产萧条,他们预计将出现3%的赤字。哎呀,经济放缓了。你应该在中国花更多的钱来帮助你的爱人,光做键盘侠是毫无价值的。

@madsam0320 @ssuwandi3240 there is no Enron nor Lehman Brothers type of crash in China, none of the property developers have gone bust, not Evergrande nor Country Garden. Spending more is not a solution like you and your beloved country think, not in the long term especially if you borrow beyond your means.. like your beloved country.

中国没有安然事件,也没有雷曼兄弟事件,中国没有一家房地产开发商破产,恒大和碧桂园也没有。 多花钱并不像你和你热爱的国家所想的那样是个解决办法,从长远来看不是,尤其是如果你们的借贷超出了你们的能力的话。

@madsam0320 @ssuwandi3240 you are confusing deflation with deficits, China has biggest trade surplus in the world, by a long chalk. If China has deficits, all countries will have deficits too, and that is impossible. Short term deflation is not a bad thing, especially after a long period of inflations. It means things are less expensive and money can go further.

你把通货紧缩和赤字混为一谈了,中国是世界上最大的贸易顺差国,遥遥领先。如果中国有赤字,所有国家也会有赤字,这是不可能的。 短期通货紧缩并非坏事,尤其是在长期通货膨胀之后,这意味着东西更便宜了,钱可以花得更值了。

@madsam0320 @ssuwandi3240 China huge surplus is again breaking records despite the trade war. China can easily boost their economy by encouraging massive consumption, like your beloved country. Although that won’t entails massive borrowings like some countries you know who, because of China big foreign reserves, it won’t be prudent. Also the US has to put up interest rates because the treasury bonds are not in demand, the house of cards is wobbling, when it collapses, it will be quick, and no warning, only panics.

尽管有贸易战,但中国的巨额顺差再次刷新纪录。就像你心爱的国家一样,中国可以通过鼓励大量的消费来轻松提振经济。由于中国拥有庞大的外汇储备,所以它不会像你知道的某些国家那样需要大量借贷,因为这样做并不明智。 另外,美国不得不提高利率,因为其国债缺乏需求,纸牌屋摇摇欲坠,当它倒塌时,会很快,没有警告,只有恐慌。

@rolandeyezz It could be weak demand, or Chinese people may choose to buy local

可能是需求疲软,也可能是中国人选择购买本地产品。

@Kingofthehill84 No, local demand are down.

不,本地需求都下降了。

@kamsunleong6648 @Kingofthehill84 One of the possible reason. But not the main reason. People still need to live and work and consume.

这是可能的原因之一,但不是主要原因,因为人们仍然需要生活、工作和消费。

@chanbengfoo342 Imports slow is not because of less Domestic consumption Luckin instead of Starbuck Li Ning instead of Nike

进口放缓不是因为国内消费减少,而是: 瑞幸替代了星巴克 李宁替代了耐克

@gliu1431 China imports less semiconductor chips (7nm and above) because they can now produce them. This going to reduce total import amounts.

中国进口半导体芯片(7纳米及以上)的数量减少是因为他们现在可以生产这些芯片,这将减少中国的进口总额。

@kamalkashyap2496 Well they produce everything domestically so they always in surplus

好吧,他们在国内生产所有东西,所以总是过剩。

@billinsf88 If China is banned from purchasing semiconductor chips, wouldn’t that reduce their imports?

如果禁止中国购买半导体芯片,不是会减少他们的进口吗?

@danielli9167 simple logic. I can not believe that some people do not have that logic in their head.

这是个简单的逻辑,我不相信有些人脑子里没有这个逻辑。

@ZweiZwolf They're generally shifting to 'unsanctionable' and patriotic domestic suppliers at lower cost vs expensive Western brands. It's a macro trend across a host of consumer goods, from automobiles and energy to coffee and clothing.

与昂贵的西方品牌相比,他们一般会转向“不受制裁”的、爱国的、成本较低的国内供应商。 从汽车、能源到咖啡、服装等众多消费品,这是一个大趋势。

@sanzhang-tx1zm

我们的军事实力在这,你有什么资格禁止我们购买,更何况我们能够自己生产。

@DucaTech Drop in imports is due to export control of advanced semiconductor chips by US and China is building domestic ones. Otherwise they would have imported $400B worth of nVidia GPUs.

进口下降是由于美国对先进半导体芯片实行出口管制,而中国正在制造国产芯片,否则他们会进口价值4000亿美元的英伟达的 GPU。

@antonmihoc4109 You can not beat a country that plays the long game. We should learn from China, not try to stop them.

你不可能打败一个玩长期游戏的国家。我们应该向中国学习,而不是试图阻止他们。

@georgewilder7423 Exports fell slightly cheaper as said...does that necessarily mean that things are slowing down in China. Chips were one of their biggest imports,so maybe China's becoming self -sufficient in that line so imports are down.

正如所说,进口略有下降……这是否一定意味着中国经济正在放缓? 芯片是中国最大的进口产品之一,因此也许中国在这方面已经自给自足,因此进口量下降了。

@ceychungyu7462 High tariffs is actually a free lunch to local manufacturers, who will include the tariff value to their local sales, every car sold will be a coupon value of the tariffs on vehicles sold. The losers are the consumers who pay the additional value. Never works, robbing Paul to pay Peter.

高关税对本土制造商来说其实是免费的午餐,他们会把关税价值计入本土销售额,每卖出一辆车,就会得到一张所售车辆关税的优惠券价值,而消费者则承担了额外的费用。拆东墙补西墙是行不通的。

@ZweiZwolf Huh? No, tariffs worked great for Australia's Holden motors. Also the UK's MG, Lotus, Rover, Mini, and Vauxhall. And Sweden's SAAB and Volvo. They're all doing just fine, right?

啊?不,关税对澳大利亚的霍顿汽车公司,还有英国的MG、Lotus、Rover、Mini和Vauxhall以及瑞典的萨博和沃尔沃非常有效。它们都做得很好,不是吗?

@FredJones-lo2df We Westerners can never achieve the acumen of asiabs.we think we are a lynx, but are a kitty.

我们西方人永远无法达到亚洲人的敏锐度。我们自以为是猞猁,其实只是小猫。

@KlKl-k4x This channel's info is lackadaisical. Imports fell because of massive export bans, like chips, to China. However, China has embarked upon concerted import substitution to overcome these bans.

这个频道的信息乏善可陈。 进口下降是因为对中国的大规模出口禁令,比如芯片。 不过,中国已开始采取协调一致的进口替代措施来克服这些禁令。

@tedb5432 Their imports are going down, as they have substituted products with own technologies, which are on par or higher.

他们的进口量正在下降,因为他们用自己的与进口产品技术相当或更高的产品替代了进口产品。

关键词: 中国 2025年 贸易顺差
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