“中国自伊朗战争初期总结的6点经验教训”国人外网撰文嘲讽：美国在伊朗进展如何了？（下）
正文翻译
Three F-15Es have been shot down in one morning on March 2. The US claims they were downed by “friendly fires”, which I am not sure makes it less embarrassing.
The last time such a “friendly fire” happened was when USS Gettysburg shot down a F/A-18F Super Hornet in Yemen in December 2024, when the “world’s greatest military” was fighting the Houthis to a tie.
Three multi-million-dollar jets downed in a single morning by “friendly fire” must be a world record worthy of a golden trophy.
The lie sounds less plausible for people who have heard of Identification of Friend or Foe (IFF) system that every military uses in the world.
3月2日上午，三架F-15E战斗机被击落。美国声称它们是被"友军火力"击落的，我不确定这是否让它不那么尴尬。
上一次发生这样的"友军火力"事件是在2024年12月，当时"世界上最伟大的军队"与胡塞武装打成平手，美国海军"葛底斯堡"号巡洋舰在也门击落了一架F/A-18F超级大黄蜂战斗机。
一个上午被"友军火力"击落三架价值数百万美元的喷气式飞机，这一定是值得获得金质奖杯的世界纪录。
对于听说过世界上所有军队都在使用的敌我识别系统（IFF）的人来说，这个谎言听起来更不可信。
A $1.1 billion AN/FPS-132 Upgraded Early Warning Radar (UEWR) at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar was blown to pieces by a $10,000 Iranian suicide drone.
Three Patriot and THAAD air defense systems were destroyed in the region, according to al Jazeera.
US carrier and warships have been attacked and had to retreat hundreds of miles to stay out of the Iranian missile range.
Iran has deployed ballistic missiles with cluster bombs to attack Israeli targets. Hezbollah has launched multiple rounds of rockets into Israel.
Social media videos clearly show a majority of Iranian missiles and drones are breaking through air defense and impacting targets in Tel Aviv, Dubai, Doha, and Bahrain.
卡塔尔乌代德空军基地一座价值11亿美元的AN/FPS-132升级型早期预警雷达（UEWR）被一架价值1万美元的伊朗自杀式无人机炸成碎片。
据半岛电视台报道，该地区三套"爱国者"和"萨德"防空系统被摧毁。
美国航母和军舰遭到攻击，不得不后撤数百英里以脱离伊朗导弹射程。
伊朗已部署携带集束炸弹的弹道导弹攻击以色列目标。真主党已向以色列发射多轮火箭弹。
社交媒体视频清楚地显示，大多数伊朗导弹和无人机突破了防空系统，击中了特拉维夫、迪拜、多哈和巴林的目标。
The famed Iron Dome, Patriot, David Sling, and THAAD systems have failed quite spectacularly. Perhaps they are running low with interceptors and preserving ammo for the more valuable targets.
Most US bases in the region are now closed and the GIs pulled out to hide elsewhere. US embassies, CIA stations, Israel military and government facilities, and hotels housing USrael personnel have been struck.
In addition, the cost exchange is horrible for USrael – they are firing 2 or 3 interceptors costing between 2 to 4 million dollars each to shoot down a single Iranian missile or drone that cost less than 5 or 10% of each interceptor.
If you compare Iranian firepower against its military budget, the battle so far is simply lopsided in Iran’s favor.
著名的"铁穹"、"爱国者"、"大卫投石索"和"萨德"系统都相当壮观地失败了。也许它们的拦截弹快用完了，正在为更有价值的目标保存弹药。
该地区大多数美军基地现已关闭，美国大兵被撤出并躲藏到其他地方。美国大使馆、中央情报局站点、以色列军事和政府设施，以及容纳美国以色列人员的酒店都遭到了打击。
此外，成本交换对美国以色列来说非常糟糕——他们发射2或3枚拦截弹，每枚成本在200万到400万美元之间，以击落一枚伊朗导弹或无人机，而每枚拦截弹的成本不到其5%或10%。
如果你将伊朗的火力与其军事预算进行比较，迄今为止的战斗完全是对伊朗有利的一边倒。
Iran’s 2025 military budget is $7.9 billion, less than half of Singapore’s ($17 billion), while Israel spends $47 billion a year on top of US aid.
Saudi’s military spending is $80 billion and the US over $900 billion. Almost every Gulf Arab state spends more than Iran.
However, Iran has not only withstood the pounding by USrael, it has taken on the whole region.
The vaulted military power of USrael simply hasn’t delivered a knockout blow to a weaker opponent. Instead, Iran is punching back hard.
While it is too early to tell which side will prevail, it is clear that this war will last more than 4 or 5 days.
The day before yesterday, Trump changed his timeline to 4 or 5 weeks.
伊朗2025年的军事预算是79亿美元，不到新加坡（170亿美元）的一半，而以色列每年的军费开支为470亿美元，这还不包括美国的援助。
沙特的军费开支是800亿美元，美国则超过9000亿美元。几乎每个海湾阿拉伯国家的军费开支都超过伊朗。
然而，伊朗不仅顶住了美国以色列的打击，还对抗了整个地区。
美国以色列吹嘘的军事实力根本没有对较弱的对手造成致命打击。相反，伊朗正在猛烈反击。
虽然现在判断哪一方会获胜还为时过早，但很明显，这场战争将持续超过4或5天。
前天，特朗普将他的时间表改为4或5周。
Yesterday, Trump angrily denied USrael is running short on ammo, claiming the US has the weapons to “fight forever”. Now it’s becoming a new “forever” war?
There is an old Chinese proverb exactly for such occasions called 此地无银三百两 (don’t look; there is no silver buried here).
昨天，特朗普愤怒地否认美国以色列弹药短缺，声称美国有武器可以"永远战斗下去"。现在这要变成一场新的"永久"战争了吗？
有一句古老的中国谚语正好适用于这种情况，叫做"此地无银三百两"。
Implication for China and how it will support Iran
I wrote about China’s perspective on the Middle Eastern conflict last June when Iran was attacked in the 12-day war.
Beijing’s position remains largely the same, although there is an elevated need for China to help Iran to resist USrael and defeat their war obxtive this time.
The main difference is the 12-day war was mainly about Iran’s nuclear capabilities while the goal of current USrael aggression is regime change.
Iran is a critical node in the multipolar world order China envisions. It is also in a critical geostrategic region that the world depends on for energy security.
Beijing’s position on the war seems to consolidate around several pillars, based on a review of official pronouncements, think tank analysis, and social media commentaries.
对中国的影响以及中国将如何支持伊朗
去年六月，当伊朗在为期12天的战争中遭受攻击时，我撰写了关于中国对中东冲突的立场。北京方面的立场基本保持不变，尽管此次中国更需要帮助伊朗抵抗"美以"并挫败其战争目标。
主要区别在于：12天战争主要涉及伊朗的核能力，而当前"美以"侵略的目标是政权更迭。
伊朗是中国设想的多极世界秩序中的关键节点。它也位于一个对世界能源安全至关重要的关键地缘战略区域。
基于对官方声明、智库分析和社交媒体评论的梳理，北京方面对这场战争的立场似乎围绕以下几个支柱进行整合。
First, China will offer continued diplomatic and economic support to Iran. About 20% of Iran’s economy depends on trade with China, which also helps Iran get around the sanctions and dollar restrictions imposed by the West.
Secondly, China is deepening intelligence sharing and supplying critical technologies to Iran.
Chinese firms such as MizarVision have been supplying and publishing high-definition satellite images of US military deployment in the Middle East.
Beijing has supplied Iran with the Beidou navigation and guidance system, which has massively improved the accuracy of Iranian missile strikes since the US cannot switch off or jam Beidou signals as it does with the GPS system.
首先，中国将继续向伊朗提供外交和经济支持。 伊朗约20%的经济依赖于与中国的贸易，这也有助于伊朗规避西方实施的制裁和美元限制。
其次，中国正在深化与伊朗的情报共享，并向其提供关键技术。
像MizarVision这样的中国公司一直在提供并发布美国在中东军事部署的高清卫星图像。
北京已向伊朗提供了北斗导航和制导系统，这极大地提高了伊朗导弹打击的精确度，因为美国无法像干扰GPS系统那样关闭或干扰北斗信号。
Space-based intelligence is a critical node in high tech wars and beyond the reach of most. Such support can deliver a step-function improvement to Iran’s attack lethality.
China has accelerated parts and components supply to Iran’s missile and drone production, including the propulsion fuel for Iran’s ballistic missiles.
China is also providing AI-enabled surveillance technology to help Iran’s security forces to identify and capture moles and infiltrators within Iran.
Despite Beijing’s traditional posture not to provide kinetic weapons to countries in war (including Russia), it is accelerating military cooperation with Iran and likely to transfer both defensive and offensive weapons in the future.
Third, the US is indeed a “paper tiger”. It is physically incapable to fight a prolonged war with large casualties despite its posturing.
天基情报是高科技战争中的关键节点，且超出大多数国家的能力范围。此类支持能使伊朗的攻击杀伤力实现阶跃式提升。
中国已加快向伊朗导弹和无人机生产供应零部件，包括伊朗弹道导弹的推进燃料。
中国还提供人工智能驱动的监控技术，以帮助伊朗安全部队识别并抓捕伊朗境内的间谍和渗透者。
尽管北京方面传统上不向处于战争状态的国家（包括俄罗斯）提供动能武器，但它正在加快与伊朗的军事合作，未来很可能转让防御性和进攻性武器。
第三，美国确实是"纸老虎"。尽管姿态强硬，但它在物理上无力进行一场造成重大伤亡的持久战。
The US military industrial complex suffers from the same issue as the rest of the financialized economy. It is not optimized to deliver weapons at scale and cost to win wars. It is optimized for profit maximization.
The MIC is driven by just-in-time efficiency and zero surge capacity in order to achieve highest return on capital, rather than to achieve resilience for large scale conflicts.
The high-tech, overengineered weapons in the US arsenal can be easily exhausted and, once depleted, almost impossible to replenish.
Just 5-days of high-intensity conflict with Iran has shown its vulnerabilities.
美国军工复合体面临着与金融化经济的其他部分相同的问题。它的优化目标不是以规模和成本优势交付武器以赢得战争，而是为了利润最大化。
军工复合体受准时制效率和零备用产能驱动，以实现最高的资本回报率，而不是为了在大规模冲突中实现韧性。
美国武器库中高科技、过度设计的武器很容易耗尽，一旦耗尽，几乎不可能补充。
仅仅与伊朗进行5天的高强度冲突就暴露了其脆弱性。
The US is simply incapable a war of attrition with China, with its inexhaustible industrial capacity (called “overcapacity” by the West) and national resilience.
Given its ever expanding strength over the US, China can afford the long game and strategic patience to wait for the inevitable decline and implosion of US power.
Fourth, Beijing is keenly aware the need for caution when navigating the cesspool of Middle Eastern politics.
The war has shown the Gulf monarchs are still very much vassals of the US and Israel.
美国根本无力与中国进行一场消耗战， 因为中国拥有取之不尽的工业产能（被西方称为"产能过剩"）和国家韧性。
鉴于其实力相对于美国持续增长，中国有能力进行长期博弈并保持战略耐心，等待美国实力不可避免的衰落和内爆。
第四，北京方面敏锐地意识到，在中东政治泥潭中航行时需要保持谨慎。
这场战争表明，海湾君主国在很大程度上仍是美国和以色列的附庸。
According to the Washington Post, Mohammed bin Salman was heavily lobbying Trump to attack Iran.
This is despite the rapprochement Beijing brokered between Iran and Saudi Abria in 2023. Clearly, the sheiks are not to be trusted.
Turkey’s Erdoğan is a double-headed snake who publicly decried Israel’s GENOCIDE in Gaza while supplying Israel with its oil lifeline.
He stabbed Russia in the back with treacherous collusion with the Jews in Syria to overthrow Bashar Assad.
The Middle East will return to camel land once oil and gas is exhausted or becomes irrelevant as a result of the green energy revolution China is driving.
据《华盛顿邮报》报道， 穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼曾极力游说特朗普攻击伊朗。
尽管北京在2023年促成了伊朗和沙特阿拉伯之间的和解， 但显然，这些酋长国并不可信。
土耳其的埃尔多安是一条双头蛇， 他公开谴责以色列在加沙的种族灭绝，同时却向以色列供应其石油生命线。
他曾与犹太人在叙利亚进行背信弃义的勾结， 试图推翻巴沙尔·阿萨德，从而在背后捅了俄罗斯一刀。
一旦石油和天然气耗尽， 或者因中国推动的绿色能源革命而变得无关紧要，中东将回归骆驼之地。
For now, China is managing its energy vulnerability by strategic stockpiling and diversifying its supplies away from the Middle East to countries like Russia, Brazil, and Angola.
Fifth, the Iran war is proving the US military bases in the Persian Gulf are not strategic assets, but liabilities and sitting ducks.
If Iran can prevail the defenses of these bases with its missile and drone salvos, China can hit the US bases in the First Island Chain with much bigger barrages.
The US air defense doctrine is simply technically and financially unsustainable against high-velocity saturation attacks.
目前，中国正通过战略储备和供应多元化来管理其能源脆弱性， 将供应从中东转向俄罗斯、巴西和安哥拉等国家。
第五，伊朗战争正在证明， 美国在波斯湾的军事基地不是战略资产，而是负债和活靶子。
如果伊朗能用其导弹和无人机齐射突破这些基地的防御， 中国就能以更强大的火力覆盖打击美国在第一岛链的基地。
美国防空学说在技术和财力上根本无法应对高速饱和攻击。
Those states hosting US assets, including Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, are targets with a bull-eye painted on their back. They will face the same fate as the Gulf states hosting US bases.
Lastly, Beijing is fully aware of the American Perfidy. The US is a rogue state unworthy of trust.
By launching an unprovoked war against Iran, the US is operating as an interloper that believes it can fundamentally alter the cultural and political trajectory of a 5,000-year old civilization through the application of air power.
And it launched the war under pretense of “negotiations” – behavior of a “barbarian” state.
Clearly, the US is willing to destabilize an entire region to pursue its hegemonic dominance. It is a state that believes power is a substitute for legitimacy.
那些容纳美国军事资产的国家， 包括日本、韩国和菲律宾，都是背后画着靶心的目标。它们将面临与容纳美国基地的海湾国家相同的命运。
最后，北京方面完全了解美国的背信弃义。 美国是一个不值得信任的流氓国家。
通过对伊朗发动一场无端战争， 美国作为一个干涉者行事，它相信通过运用空中力量就能从根本上改变一个拥有5000年历史的文明的文化和政治轨迹。
而且它在"谈判"的幌子下发动了战争—— 这是一种"野蛮"国家的行为。
显然， 美国愿意为了追求其霸权主导地位而破坏整个地区的稳定。这是一个相信权力可以替代合法性的国家。
The US actions serve as a clear warning to small and medium-sized powers that if international law can be suspended to remove the leadership of a nation as significant as Iran (the most populous country in the Middle East), no nation’s sovereignty is truly secure.
Beyond the US, the collective West is a hypercritical and bad-faith actor.
By supporting USrael’s illegal war against Iran while condemning Russia’s war in Ukraine as “unprovoked”, the West has revealed its ugly double standard and its total vassalage to the US and Israel.
There is an old Chinese saying “国虽大，好战必亡；天下虽安，忘战必危。” It translates as “Though a state may be large, if it is fond of war, it will perish; though the world may be at peace, if one forgets about war, one will be in danger.”
美国的行动向中小型国家发出了明确的警告： 如果国际法可以被暂停以推翻像伊朗这样重要国家（中东人口最多的国家）的领导层，那么没有任何国家的主权是真正安全的。
除了美国之外， 整个西方集体都是一个极度虚伪且不怀好意的行为体。
通过支持"美以"对伊朗的非法战争， 同时谴责俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争是"无端"的，西方暴露了其丑陋的双重标准及其对美国和以色列的完全附庸地位。
中国有句古话："国虽大，好战必亡；天下虽安，忘战必危。" 意思是：一个国家即使再强大，如果好战，终将灭亡；天下即使太平，如果忘记战争，必将面临危险。
In the West, similar phrases include “Those who live by the sword, die by the sword” and “He who sows the wind will reap the whirlwind”.
The warmongering by the US will eventually boomerang back to damage itself.
Beijing understands wars are easy to start, but hard to stop. It is pleased to see the US step into a bear trap of its own making, yet again.
By exercising strategic patience, Beijing is waiting for Washington’s inevitable implosion.
在西方， 类似的短语包括"持剑而生者，必死于剑下"和"种风者，必收获旋风"。
美国的战争贩子行径最终将反噬自身。
北京方面明白， 战争易于开启，却难以停止。它乐于看到美国再次踏入自己设下的捕熊陷阱。
通过运用战略耐心， 北京正在等待华盛顿不可避免的内爆。
What we are witnessing today
In the peak of its global power, the US military interventions over the past two decades have cost trillions of dollars and caused millions of civilian casualties.
These interventions utterly failed to achieve their intended geopolitical goals and have significantly weakened American strengths and legitimacy.
Now the US is already in a weakened state, these past interventions pale in comparison with the likely new disaster awaiting the US as Iran is much more powerful than Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, or Syria.
As the proverb warns, even the most powerful nation, if strategically overextended, faces resource depletion and national decline.
我们今天所见证的
在其全球权力的巅峰时期， 美国过去二十年的军事干预耗费了数万亿美元，并造成了数百万平民伤亡。
这些干预完全未能实现其预期的地缘政治目标， 并显著削弱了美国的实力和合法性。
如今美国已处于衰弱状态， 与可能等待美国的新灾难相比，过去的这些干预显得微不足道，因为伊朗远比伊拉克、阿富汗、利比亚或叙利亚更加强大。
正如谚语所警告的， 即使是最强大的国家，如果战略上过度扩张，也将面临资源枯竭和国家衰落。
The Trump regime, like its predecessors, has failed to understand military superiority doesn’t equal strategic success.
With the Operation Epic Fury, the US has dropped the pretense of any “rule-based order”. It is now openly acting as a hegemon using force to reshape an old civilization, on behalf of Zionist Jews.
The fact that Iran has immediately retaliated by striking US and Israeli assets across the Gulf suggests that the Iranian state is not going to collapse, even with the death of its leadership.
What we are seeing is a 5,000-year-old civilization, even when wounded and destabilized, is more resilient than an interloper state that relies on the “sham” of temporary military dominance.
特朗普政权与其前任一样， 未能理解军事优势并不等同于战略成功。
通过"史诗之怒"行动， 美国已放弃了任何"基于规则的秩序"的伪装。它现在公开作为霸权国家，代表犹太复国主义者使用武力来重塑一个古老文明。
伊朗立即通过打击海湾地区的美以资产进行报复的事实表明， 即使其领导层死亡，伊朗国家也不会崩溃。
我们正在看到的是， 一个拥有5000年历史的文明，即使受伤且不稳定，也比一个依赖暂时军事优势"假象"的干涉国家更具韧性。
（完）
Three F-15Es have been shot down in one morning on March 2. The US claims they were downed by “friendly fires”, which I am not sure makes it less embarrassing.
The last time such a “friendly fire” happened was when USS Gettysburg shot down a F/A-18F Super Hornet in Yemen in December 2024, when the “world’s greatest military” was fighting the Houthis to a tie.
Three multi-million-dollar jets downed in a single morning by “friendly fire” must be a world record worthy of a golden trophy.
The lie sounds less plausible for people who have heard of Identification of Friend or Foe (IFF) system that every military uses in the world.
3月2日上午，三架F-15E战斗机被击落。美国声称它们是被"友军火力"击落的，我不确定这是否让它不那么尴尬。
上一次发生这样的"友军火力"事件是在2024年12月，当时"世界上最伟大的军队"与胡塞武装打成平手，美国海军"葛底斯堡"号巡洋舰在也门击落了一架F/A-18F超级大黄蜂战斗机。
一个上午被"友军火力"击落三架价值数百万美元的喷气式飞机，这一定是值得获得金质奖杯的世界纪录。
对于听说过世界上所有军队都在使用的敌我识别系统（IFF）的人来说，这个谎言听起来更不可信。
A $1.1 billion AN/FPS-132 Upgraded Early Warning Radar (UEWR) at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar was blown to pieces by a $10,000 Iranian suicide drone.
Three Patriot and THAAD air defense systems were destroyed in the region, according to al Jazeera.
US carrier and warships have been attacked and had to retreat hundreds of miles to stay out of the Iranian missile range.
Iran has deployed ballistic missiles with cluster bombs to attack Israeli targets. Hezbollah has launched multiple rounds of rockets into Israel.
Social media videos clearly show a majority of Iranian missiles and drones are breaking through air defense and impacting targets in Tel Aviv, Dubai, Doha, and Bahrain.
卡塔尔乌代德空军基地一座价值11亿美元的AN/FPS-132升级型早期预警雷达（UEWR）被一架价值1万美元的伊朗自杀式无人机炸成碎片。
据半岛电视台报道，该地区三套"爱国者"和"萨德"防空系统被摧毁。
美国航母和军舰遭到攻击，不得不后撤数百英里以脱离伊朗导弹射程。
伊朗已部署携带集束炸弹的弹道导弹攻击以色列目标。真主党已向以色列发射多轮火箭弹。
社交媒体视频清楚地显示，大多数伊朗导弹和无人机突破了防空系统，击中了特拉维夫、迪拜、多哈和巴林的目标。
The famed Iron Dome, Patriot, David Sling, and THAAD systems have failed quite spectacularly. Perhaps they are running low with interceptors and preserving ammo for the more valuable targets.
Most US bases in the region are now closed and the GIs pulled out to hide elsewhere. US embassies, CIA stations, Israel military and government facilities, and hotels housing USrael personnel have been struck.
In addition, the cost exchange is horrible for USrael – they are firing 2 or 3 interceptors costing between 2 to 4 million dollars each to shoot down a single Iranian missile or drone that cost less than 5 or 10% of each interceptor.
If you compare Iranian firepower against its military budget, the battle so far is simply lopsided in Iran’s favor.
著名的"铁穹"、"爱国者"、"大卫投石索"和"萨德"系统都相当壮观地失败了。也许它们的拦截弹快用完了，正在为更有价值的目标保存弹药。
该地区大多数美军基地现已关闭，美国大兵被撤出并躲藏到其他地方。美国大使馆、中央情报局站点、以色列军事和政府设施，以及容纳美国以色列人员的酒店都遭到了打击。
此外，成本交换对美国以色列来说非常糟糕——他们发射2或3枚拦截弹，每枚成本在200万到400万美元之间，以击落一枚伊朗导弹或无人机，而每枚拦截弹的成本不到其5%或10%。
如果你将伊朗的火力与其军事预算进行比较，迄今为止的战斗完全是对伊朗有利的一边倒。
Iran’s 2025 military budget is $7.9 billion, less than half of Singapore’s ($17 billion), while Israel spends $47 billion a year on top of US aid.
Saudi’s military spending is $80 billion and the US over $900 billion. Almost every Gulf Arab state spends more than Iran.
However, Iran has not only withstood the pounding by USrael, it has taken on the whole region.
The vaulted military power of USrael simply hasn’t delivered a knockout blow to a weaker opponent. Instead, Iran is punching back hard.
While it is too early to tell which side will prevail, it is clear that this war will last more than 4 or 5 days.
The day before yesterday, Trump changed his timeline to 4 or 5 weeks.
伊朗2025年的军事预算是79亿美元，不到新加坡（170亿美元）的一半，而以色列每年的军费开支为470亿美元，这还不包括美国的援助。
沙特的军费开支是800亿美元，美国则超过9000亿美元。几乎每个海湾阿拉伯国家的军费开支都超过伊朗。
然而，伊朗不仅顶住了美国以色列的打击，还对抗了整个地区。
美国以色列吹嘘的军事实力根本没有对较弱的对手造成致命打击。相反，伊朗正在猛烈反击。
虽然现在判断哪一方会获胜还为时过早，但很明显，这场战争将持续超过4或5天。
前天，特朗普将他的时间表改为4或5周。
Yesterday, Trump angrily denied USrael is running short on ammo, claiming the US has the weapons to “fight forever”. Now it’s becoming a new “forever” war?
There is an old Chinese proverb exactly for such occasions called 此地无银三百两 (don’t look; there is no silver buried here).
昨天，特朗普愤怒地否认美国以色列弹药短缺，声称美国有武器可以"永远战斗下去"。现在这要变成一场新的"永久"战争了吗？
有一句古老的中国谚语正好适用于这种情况，叫做"此地无银三百两"。
Implication for China and how it will support Iran
I wrote about China’s perspective on the Middle Eastern conflict last June when Iran was attacked in the 12-day war.
Beijing’s position remains largely the same, although there is an elevated need for China to help Iran to resist USrael and defeat their war obxtive this time.
The main difference is the 12-day war was mainly about Iran’s nuclear capabilities while the goal of current USrael aggression is regime change.
Iran is a critical node in the multipolar world order China envisions. It is also in a critical geostrategic region that the world depends on for energy security.
Beijing’s position on the war seems to consolidate around several pillars, based on a review of official pronouncements, think tank analysis, and social media commentaries.
对中国的影响以及中国将如何支持伊朗
去年六月，当伊朗在为期12天的战争中遭受攻击时，我撰写了关于中国对中东冲突的立场。北京方面的立场基本保持不变，尽管此次中国更需要帮助伊朗抵抗"美以"并挫败其战争目标。
主要区别在于：12天战争主要涉及伊朗的核能力，而当前"美以"侵略的目标是政权更迭。
伊朗是中国设想的多极世界秩序中的关键节点。它也位于一个对世界能源安全至关重要的关键地缘战略区域。
基于对官方声明、智库分析和社交媒体评论的梳理，北京方面对这场战争的立场似乎围绕以下几个支柱进行整合。
First, China will offer continued diplomatic and economic support to Iran. About 20% of Iran’s economy depends on trade with China, which also helps Iran get around the sanctions and dollar restrictions imposed by the West.
Secondly, China is deepening intelligence sharing and supplying critical technologies to Iran.
Chinese firms such as MizarVision have been supplying and publishing high-definition satellite images of US military deployment in the Middle East.
Beijing has supplied Iran with the Beidou navigation and guidance system, which has massively improved the accuracy of Iranian missile strikes since the US cannot switch off or jam Beidou signals as it does with the GPS system.
首先，中国将继续向伊朗提供外交和经济支持。 伊朗约20%的经济依赖于与中国的贸易，这也有助于伊朗规避西方实施的制裁和美元限制。
其次，中国正在深化与伊朗的情报共享，并向其提供关键技术。
像MizarVision这样的中国公司一直在提供并发布美国在中东军事部署的高清卫星图像。
北京已向伊朗提供了北斗导航和制导系统，这极大地提高了伊朗导弹打击的精确度，因为美国无法像干扰GPS系统那样关闭或干扰北斗信号。
Space-based intelligence is a critical node in high tech wars and beyond the reach of most. Such support can deliver a step-function improvement to Iran’s attack lethality.
China has accelerated parts and components supply to Iran’s missile and drone production, including the propulsion fuel for Iran’s ballistic missiles.
China is also providing AI-enabled surveillance technology to help Iran’s security forces to identify and capture moles and infiltrators within Iran.
Despite Beijing’s traditional posture not to provide kinetic weapons to countries in war (including Russia), it is accelerating military cooperation with Iran and likely to transfer both defensive and offensive weapons in the future.
Third, the US is indeed a “paper tiger”. It is physically incapable to fight a prolonged war with large casualties despite its posturing.
天基情报是高科技战争中的关键节点，且超出大多数国家的能力范围。此类支持能使伊朗的攻击杀伤力实现阶跃式提升。
中国已加快向伊朗导弹和无人机生产供应零部件，包括伊朗弹道导弹的推进燃料。
中国还提供人工智能驱动的监控技术，以帮助伊朗安全部队识别并抓捕伊朗境内的间谍和渗透者。
尽管北京方面传统上不向处于战争状态的国家（包括俄罗斯）提供动能武器，但它正在加快与伊朗的军事合作，未来很可能转让防御性和进攻性武器。
第三，美国确实是"纸老虎"。尽管姿态强硬，但它在物理上无力进行一场造成重大伤亡的持久战。
The US military industrial complex suffers from the same issue as the rest of the financialized economy. It is not optimized to deliver weapons at scale and cost to win wars. It is optimized for profit maximization.
The MIC is driven by just-in-time efficiency and zero surge capacity in order to achieve highest return on capital, rather than to achieve resilience for large scale conflicts.
The high-tech, overengineered weapons in the US arsenal can be easily exhausted and, once depleted, almost impossible to replenish.
Just 5-days of high-intensity conflict with Iran has shown its vulnerabilities.
美国军工复合体面临着与金融化经济的其他部分相同的问题。它的优化目标不是以规模和成本优势交付武器以赢得战争，而是为了利润最大化。
军工复合体受准时制效率和零备用产能驱动，以实现最高的资本回报率，而不是为了在大规模冲突中实现韧性。
美国武器库中高科技、过度设计的武器很容易耗尽，一旦耗尽，几乎不可能补充。
仅仅与伊朗进行5天的高强度冲突就暴露了其脆弱性。
The US is simply incapable a war of attrition with China, with its inexhaustible industrial capacity (called “overcapacity” by the West) and national resilience.
Given its ever expanding strength over the US, China can afford the long game and strategic patience to wait for the inevitable decline and implosion of US power.
Fourth, Beijing is keenly aware the need for caution when navigating the cesspool of Middle Eastern politics.
The war has shown the Gulf monarchs are still very much vassals of the US and Israel.
美国根本无力与中国进行一场消耗战， 因为中国拥有取之不尽的工业产能（被西方称为"产能过剩"）和国家韧性。
鉴于其实力相对于美国持续增长，中国有能力进行长期博弈并保持战略耐心，等待美国实力不可避免的衰落和内爆。
第四，北京方面敏锐地意识到，在中东政治泥潭中航行时需要保持谨慎。
这场战争表明，海湾君主国在很大程度上仍是美国和以色列的附庸。
According to the Washington Post, Mohammed bin Salman was heavily lobbying Trump to attack Iran.
This is despite the rapprochement Beijing brokered between Iran and Saudi Abria in 2023. Clearly, the sheiks are not to be trusted.
Turkey’s Erdoğan is a double-headed snake who publicly decried Israel’s GENOCIDE in Gaza while supplying Israel with its oil lifeline.
He stabbed Russia in the back with treacherous collusion with the Jews in Syria to overthrow Bashar Assad.
The Middle East will return to camel land once oil and gas is exhausted or becomes irrelevant as a result of the green energy revolution China is driving.
据《华盛顿邮报》报道， 穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼曾极力游说特朗普攻击伊朗。
尽管北京在2023年促成了伊朗和沙特阿拉伯之间的和解， 但显然，这些酋长国并不可信。
土耳其的埃尔多安是一条双头蛇， 他公开谴责以色列在加沙的种族灭绝，同时却向以色列供应其石油生命线。
他曾与犹太人在叙利亚进行背信弃义的勾结， 试图推翻巴沙尔·阿萨德，从而在背后捅了俄罗斯一刀。
一旦石油和天然气耗尽， 或者因中国推动的绿色能源革命而变得无关紧要，中东将回归骆驼之地。
For now, China is managing its energy vulnerability by strategic stockpiling and diversifying its supplies away from the Middle East to countries like Russia, Brazil, and Angola.
Fifth, the Iran war is proving the US military bases in the Persian Gulf are not strategic assets, but liabilities and sitting ducks.
If Iran can prevail the defenses of these bases with its missile and drone salvos, China can hit the US bases in the First Island Chain with much bigger barrages.
The US air defense doctrine is simply technically and financially unsustainable against high-velocity saturation attacks.
目前，中国正通过战略储备和供应多元化来管理其能源脆弱性， 将供应从中东转向俄罗斯、巴西和安哥拉等国家。
第五，伊朗战争正在证明， 美国在波斯湾的军事基地不是战略资产，而是负债和活靶子。
如果伊朗能用其导弹和无人机齐射突破这些基地的防御， 中国就能以更强大的火力覆盖打击美国在第一岛链的基地。
美国防空学说在技术和财力上根本无法应对高速饱和攻击。
Those states hosting US assets, including Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, are targets with a bull-eye painted on their back. They will face the same fate as the Gulf states hosting US bases.
Lastly, Beijing is fully aware of the American Perfidy. The US is a rogue state unworthy of trust.
By launching an unprovoked war against Iran, the US is operating as an interloper that believes it can fundamentally alter the cultural and political trajectory of a 5,000-year old civilization through the application of air power.
And it launched the war under pretense of “negotiations” – behavior of a “barbarian” state.
Clearly, the US is willing to destabilize an entire region to pursue its hegemonic dominance. It is a state that believes power is a substitute for legitimacy.
那些容纳美国军事资产的国家， 包括日本、韩国和菲律宾，都是背后画着靶心的目标。它们将面临与容纳美国基地的海湾国家相同的命运。
最后，北京方面完全了解美国的背信弃义。 美国是一个不值得信任的流氓国家。
通过对伊朗发动一场无端战争， 美国作为一个干涉者行事，它相信通过运用空中力量就能从根本上改变一个拥有5000年历史的文明的文化和政治轨迹。
而且它在"谈判"的幌子下发动了战争—— 这是一种"野蛮"国家的行为。
显然， 美国愿意为了追求其霸权主导地位而破坏整个地区的稳定。这是一个相信权力可以替代合法性的国家。
The US actions serve as a clear warning to small and medium-sized powers that if international law can be suspended to remove the leadership of a nation as significant as Iran (the most populous country in the Middle East), no nation’s sovereignty is truly secure.
Beyond the US, the collective West is a hypercritical and bad-faith actor.
By supporting USrael’s illegal war against Iran while condemning Russia’s war in Ukraine as “unprovoked”, the West has revealed its ugly double standard and its total vassalage to the US and Israel.
There is an old Chinese saying “国虽大，好战必亡；天下虽安，忘战必危。” It translates as “Though a state may be large, if it is fond of war, it will perish; though the world may be at peace, if one forgets about war, one will be in danger.”
美国的行动向中小型国家发出了明确的警告： 如果国际法可以被暂停以推翻像伊朗这样重要国家（中东人口最多的国家）的领导层，那么没有任何国家的主权是真正安全的。
除了美国之外， 整个西方集体都是一个极度虚伪且不怀好意的行为体。
通过支持"美以"对伊朗的非法战争， 同时谴责俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争是"无端"的，西方暴露了其丑陋的双重标准及其对美国和以色列的完全附庸地位。
中国有句古话："国虽大，好战必亡；天下虽安，忘战必危。" 意思是：一个国家即使再强大，如果好战，终将灭亡；天下即使太平，如果忘记战争，必将面临危险。
In the West, similar phrases include “Those who live by the sword, die by the sword” and “He who sows the wind will reap the whirlwind”.
The warmongering by the US will eventually boomerang back to damage itself.
Beijing understands wars are easy to start, but hard to stop. It is pleased to see the US step into a bear trap of its own making, yet again.
By exercising strategic patience, Beijing is waiting for Washington’s inevitable implosion.
在西方， 类似的短语包括"持剑而生者，必死于剑下"和"种风者，必收获旋风"。
美国的战争贩子行径最终将反噬自身。
北京方面明白， 战争易于开启，却难以停止。它乐于看到美国再次踏入自己设下的捕熊陷阱。
通过运用战略耐心， 北京正在等待华盛顿不可避免的内爆。
What we are witnessing today
In the peak of its global power, the US military interventions over the past two decades have cost trillions of dollars and caused millions of civilian casualties.
These interventions utterly failed to achieve their intended geopolitical goals and have significantly weakened American strengths and legitimacy.
Now the US is already in a weakened state, these past interventions pale in comparison with the likely new disaster awaiting the US as Iran is much more powerful than Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, or Syria.
As the proverb warns, even the most powerful nation, if strategically overextended, faces resource depletion and national decline.
我们今天所见证的
在其全球权力的巅峰时期， 美国过去二十年的军事干预耗费了数万亿美元，并造成了数百万平民伤亡。
这些干预完全未能实现其预期的地缘政治目标， 并显著削弱了美国的实力和合法性。
如今美国已处于衰弱状态， 与可能等待美国的新灾难相比，过去的这些干预显得微不足道，因为伊朗远比伊拉克、阿富汗、利比亚或叙利亚更加强大。
正如谚语所警告的， 即使是最强大的国家，如果战略上过度扩张，也将面临资源枯竭和国家衰落。
The Trump regime, like its predecessors, has failed to understand military superiority doesn’t equal strategic success.
With the Operation Epic Fury, the US has dropped the pretense of any “rule-based order”. It is now openly acting as a hegemon using force to reshape an old civilization, on behalf of Zionist Jews.
The fact that Iran has immediately retaliated by striking US and Israeli assets across the Gulf suggests that the Iranian state is not going to collapse, even with the death of its leadership.
What we are seeing is a 5,000-year-old civilization, even when wounded and destabilized, is more resilient than an interloper state that relies on the “sham” of temporary military dominance.
特朗普政权与其前任一样， 未能理解军事优势并不等同于战略成功。
通过"史诗之怒"行动， 美国已放弃了任何"基于规则的秩序"的伪装。它现在公开作为霸权国家，代表犹太复国主义者使用武力来重塑一个古老文明。
伊朗立即通过打击海湾地区的美以资产进行报复的事实表明， 即使其领导层死亡，伊朗国家也不会崩溃。
我们正在看到的是， 一个拥有5000年历史的文明，即使受伤且不稳定，也比一个依赖暂时军事优势"假象"的干涉国家更具韧性。
（完）
评论翻译
mulga mumblebrain says:
The plan, as it has always been, is for ‘Ersatz Yisrael’, ‘..from the Nile to the Euphrates and Dnieper’, then on to Pax Judaica across the universe. The Judeosupremacists tell you over and over that they are insane, but none dare listen.
计划一如既往， 是为了建立"替代以色列"，"从尼罗河到幼发拉底河和第聂伯河"，然后在整个宇宙实现"犹太和平"。犹太至上主义者一遍又一遍地告诉你他们是疯狂的，但没有人敢倾听。
xcd says:
Dunning-Kruger effect: Social scientists do what they can in an attempt at immortality through a label, even for something known long ago. “As empty vessels make the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest blabbers.” -plato
If you compare Iranian firepower against its military budget
But the Empire is a “free market” – free for you know who. Don’t compare it to a theocracy. /sarc
Saudi’s military spending is $80 billion
An analysis of the Patriot system in USA showed that it had only intercepted 1 missile, an old Scud, over 28 years. Yet, Saudi Arabia paid $5.4 billion for it in 2015, Romania $4 billion in 2017, Poland $4.5 billion in 2018 and Turkey $3.5 billion in 2019. -Conn Hallinan 2019
Erdogan.. stabbed Russia in the back
He also provided drones to Ukraine.
邓宁-克鲁格效应：社会科学家尽其所能，试图通过一个标签来获得不朽，即使是为了早已为人所知的东西。"正如空容器发出的声音最响亮，那些智慧最少的人最喋喋不休。"——柏拉图
如果你将伊朗的火力与其军事预算进行比较，但帝国是一个"自由市场"——对你知道的那些人是自由的。不要把它与神权政体相提并论。/讽刺
沙特的军费开支是800亿美元 对美国爱国者系统的分析显示，28年来它只拦截了1枚导弹，一枚老旧的飞毛腿导弹。然而，沙特阿拉伯在2015年为此支付了54亿美元，罗马尼亚在2017年支付了40亿美元，波兰在2018年支付了45亿美元，土耳其则在2019年支付了35亿美元。——康恩·哈利南，2019年
至于埃尔多安……在背后捅了俄罗斯一刀 他还向乌克兰提供了无人机。
Paleologos says:
Erdogan and his allies will now fix Iran and the ‘Kurds’ , before’ they’ get their hands on the carpet weaving business . Erdogan is of the same Lodge as Bibi . Prayer mats for Solomon and Astro Boy .
埃尔多安和他的盟友现在将在"他们"插手地毯编织生意之前，摆平伊朗和"库尔德人"。埃尔多安和比比属于同一个会所。为所罗门和阿童木准备的祈祷垫。
Aldonichts says:
Nothing new or substantial, but you do confirm something, Hua Bin:
First and only lesson: The great perfidy and hypocrisy of China.
Lesson for the West and the “Global South” of Pablo Escobar and company: In a fight (in the neighborhood, at school, or in a bar), don’t expect anything from those who claim to be your friends or allies. They’ll prefer to politely tell you that it’s better to wait (strategically) if the thug hasn’t already sent you to the hospital in a coma. That when he’s exhausted, weakened from riddling you with bullets, then your close friend will intervene. Cheers.
没什么新鲜或实质性的内容，但你确实证实了一件事，华彬： 第一也是唯一的教训：
中国的巨大背信弃义和虚伪。
给西方以及巴勃罗·埃斯科瓦尔及其同伙的"全球南方"的教训：在斗争中（在邻里、在学校、或在酒吧），不要指望那些声称是你朋友或盟友的人。他们会更愿意礼貌地告诉你，最好（战略性地）等待——如果那个恶棍还没把你打成昏迷送进医院的话。等到他筋疲力尽，用子弹把你打成筛子而虚弱时，你亲密的朋友才会介入。干杯。
Che Guava says:
The great perfidy and hypocrisy of China.
All of this whining about China and Russia not helping is rubbish. Neither the R.F. nor the P.R.C. has a formal mutual defense treaty with Iran.
Both have been helping: R.F. with unspecified shipments of materiel or materials, P.R.C. with satellite guidance and surveillance data, possibly other points.
Russia has enough trouble with the E.U./N.A.T.O. throwing anything they can in Russia’s direction via the Ukraine, which has been under total jewish control for at least 12 years now.
“中国的巨大背信弃义和虚伪。”
所有这些关于中国和俄罗斯不帮忙的抱怨都是废话。俄罗斯联邦和中国都没有与伊朗签订正式的共同防御条约。
两国一直在提供帮助：俄罗斯联邦运送了未具体说明的物资或材料，中国提供了卫星制导和监视数据，可能还有其他方面。
俄罗斯已经够头疼了，欧盟/北约正通过乌克兰（该地至少12年来一直处于犹太人的完全控制之下）把一切能扔的东西都扔向俄罗斯。
The plan, as it has always been, is for ‘Ersatz Yisrael’, ‘..from the Nile to the Euphrates and Dnieper’, then on to Pax Judaica across the universe. The Judeosupremacists tell you over and over that they are insane, but none dare listen.
计划一如既往， 是为了建立"替代以色列"，"从尼罗河到幼发拉底河和第聂伯河"，然后在整个宇宙实现"犹太和平"。犹太至上主义者一遍又一遍地告诉你他们是疯狂的，但没有人敢倾听。
xcd says:
Dunning-Kruger effect: Social scientists do what they can in an attempt at immortality through a label, even for something known long ago. “As empty vessels make the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest blabbers.” -plato
If you compare Iranian firepower against its military budget
But the Empire is a “free market” – free for you know who. Don’t compare it to a theocracy. /sarc
Saudi’s military spending is $80 billion
An analysis of the Patriot system in USA showed that it had only intercepted 1 missile, an old Scud, over 28 years. Yet, Saudi Arabia paid $5.4 billion for it in 2015, Romania $4 billion in 2017, Poland $4.5 billion in 2018 and Turkey $3.5 billion in 2019. -Conn Hallinan 2019
Erdogan.. stabbed Russia in the back
He also provided drones to Ukraine.
邓宁-克鲁格效应：社会科学家尽其所能，试图通过一个标签来获得不朽，即使是为了早已为人所知的东西。"正如空容器发出的声音最响亮，那些智慧最少的人最喋喋不休。"——柏拉图
如果你将伊朗的火力与其军事预算进行比较，但帝国是一个"自由市场"——对你知道的那些人是自由的。不要把它与神权政体相提并论。/讽刺
沙特的军费开支是800亿美元 对美国爱国者系统的分析显示，28年来它只拦截了1枚导弹，一枚老旧的飞毛腿导弹。然而，沙特阿拉伯在2015年为此支付了54亿美元，罗马尼亚在2017年支付了40亿美元，波兰在2018年支付了45亿美元，土耳其则在2019年支付了35亿美元。——康恩·哈利南，2019年
至于埃尔多安……在背后捅了俄罗斯一刀 他还向乌克兰提供了无人机。
Paleologos says:
Erdogan and his allies will now fix Iran and the ‘Kurds’ , before’ they’ get their hands on the carpet weaving business . Erdogan is of the same Lodge as Bibi . Prayer mats for Solomon and Astro Boy .
埃尔多安和他的盟友现在将在"他们"插手地毯编织生意之前，摆平伊朗和"库尔德人"。埃尔多安和比比属于同一个会所。为所罗门和阿童木准备的祈祷垫。
Aldonichts says:
Nothing new or substantial, but you do confirm something, Hua Bin:
First and only lesson: The great perfidy and hypocrisy of China.
Lesson for the West and the “Global South” of Pablo Escobar and company: In a fight (in the neighborhood, at school, or in a bar), don’t expect anything from those who claim to be your friends or allies. They’ll prefer to politely tell you that it’s better to wait (strategically) if the thug hasn’t already sent you to the hospital in a coma. That when he’s exhausted, weakened from riddling you with bullets, then your close friend will intervene. Cheers.
没什么新鲜或实质性的内容，但你确实证实了一件事，华彬： 第一也是唯一的教训：
中国的巨大背信弃义和虚伪。
给西方以及巴勃罗·埃斯科瓦尔及其同伙的"全球南方"的教训：在斗争中（在邻里、在学校、或在酒吧），不要指望那些声称是你朋友或盟友的人。他们会更愿意礼貌地告诉你，最好（战略性地）等待——如果那个恶棍还没把你打成昏迷送进医院的话。等到他筋疲力尽，用子弹把你打成筛子而虚弱时，你亲密的朋友才会介入。干杯。
Che Guava says:
The great perfidy and hypocrisy of China.
All of this whining about China and Russia not helping is rubbish. Neither the R.F. nor the P.R.C. has a formal mutual defense treaty with Iran.
Both have been helping: R.F. with unspecified shipments of materiel or materials, P.R.C. with satellite guidance and surveillance data, possibly other points.
Russia has enough trouble with the E.U./N.A.T.O. throwing anything they can in Russia’s direction via the Ukraine, which has been under total jewish control for at least 12 years now.
“中国的巨大背信弃义和虚伪。”
所有这些关于中国和俄罗斯不帮忙的抱怨都是废话。俄罗斯联邦和中国都没有与伊朗签订正式的共同防御条约。
两国一直在提供帮助：俄罗斯联邦运送了未具体说明的物资或材料，中国提供了卫星制导和监视数据，可能还有其他方面。
俄罗斯已经够头疼了，欧盟/北约正通过乌克兰（该地至少12年来一直处于犹太人的完全控制之下）把一切能扔的东西都扔向俄罗斯。
