工党称，到2030年，英国将“比波兰更穷”
正文翻译
(Labour leader Keir Starmer setting out his ‘five missions’ last week.)
（工党领袖基尔·斯塔默上周提出了他的“五大使命”。）
新闻：
UK on course to be ‘poorer than Poland’ by 2030, claims Labour
-Keir Starmer says his vision is the ‘only show in town’ that can boost economic growth
工党称，到2030年，英国将“比波兰更穷”
——基尔·斯塔默说，他的愿景是能够促进经济增长的“只此一家”
-Keir Starmer says his vision is the ‘only show in town’ that can boost economic growth
工党称，到2030年，英国将“比波兰更穷”
——基尔·斯塔默说，他的愿景是能够促进经济增长的“只此一家”
(Labour leader Keir Starmer setting out his ‘five missions’ last week.)
（工党领袖基尔·斯塔默上周提出了他的“五大使命”。）
新闻：
Britons are on course to become poorer than people in Poland, Hungary and Romania, Sir Keir Starmer will claim as he sets out his plans for a Labour government to boost economic growth.
基尔·斯塔默爵士在为工党政府制定促进经济增长的计划时表示，英国人正在变得比波兰、匈牙利和罗马尼亚的人更穷。
基尔·斯塔默爵士在为工党政府制定促进经济增长的计划时表示，英国人正在变得比波兰、匈牙利和罗马尼亚的人更穷。
The Labour leader will use a speech on Monday morning to set out how his economic vision is the “only show in town” to lead the UK out of the Conservatives’ “low wage, high tax, doom-loop”.
这位工党领袖将利用周一上午的演讲，阐述他的经济愿景是如何带领英国走出保守党“低工资、高税收、恶性循环”的“只此一家”。
这位工党领袖将利用周一上午的演讲，阐述他的经济愿景是如何带领英国走出保守党“低工资、高税收、恶性循环”的“只此一家”。
According to Labour analysis of World Bank data, the wealth prospects in Britain are set to be surpassed within the next 20 years by eastern European rivals.
根据工党对世界银行数据的分析，未来20年内，英国的财富前景将被东欧竞争对手超越。
根据工党对世界银行数据的分析，未来20年内，英国的财富前景将被东欧竞争对手超越。
The party’s calculations of Britain’s wealth decline were based on assuming UK gross domestic product (GDP) per capita continues to grow at a similar rate of 0.5 per cent in real terms as it did between 2010 and 2021.
该党对英国财富下降的计算是基于假设英国人均GDP继续以与2010年至2021年期间类似的0.5%的实际增长率增长。
该党对英国财富下降的计算是基于假设英国人均GDP继续以与2010年至2021年期间类似的0.5%的实际增长率增长。
That compares with 3.6 per cent for Poland, 3 per cent for Hungary and 3.8 per cent for Romania in the same timefrx.
而相比之下，同期波兰、匈牙利和罗马尼亚分别为3.6%、3%和3.8%。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
而相比之下，同期波兰、匈牙利和罗马尼亚分别为3.6%、3%和3.8%。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Should that trajectory be sustained, Labour said it would mean the average Briton would be poorer than their Polish counterpart by 2030, and less well-off than those residing in Romania and Hungary by 2040.
工党表示，如果这种趋势持续下去，到2030年，英国人的平均收入将低于波兰人，到2040年，英国人的平均收入将低于罗马尼亚和匈牙利人。
工党表示，如果这种趋势持续下去，到2030年，英国人的平均收入将低于波兰人，到2040年，英国人的平均收入将低于罗马尼亚和匈牙利人。
Sir Keir’s speech in central London is set to expand on his unveiling of five “missions” his party will focus on if it wins the next general election. He will warn that Britain is at risk of a “brain drain”.
基尔爵士在伦敦市中心的演讲，将进一步阐述他的政党如果赢得下届大选，将重点关注的五项“使命”。他将警告称，英国正面临“人才流失”的风险。
基尔爵士在伦敦市中心的演讲，将进一步阐述他的政党如果赢得下届大选，将重点关注的五项“使命”。他将警告称，英国正面临“人才流失”的风险。
The opposition leader, according to a pre-briefed extract of his speech, is set to say: “We need to be frank about the path of decline the Tories have set our country on.
根据事先简报的演讲摘录，这位反对党领袖将称：“我们需要坦诚地面对保守党让我们的国家走上的衰落之路。
根据事先简报的演讲摘录，这位反对党领袖将称：“我们需要坦诚地面对保守党让我们的国家走上的衰落之路。
“The British people are falling behind while our European neighbours get richer, in the east as well as in countries like France and Germany.
“英国人民正在落后，而我们的欧洲邻国却越来越富有，在东部的，以及法国和德国等国家也是。
“英国人民正在落后，而我们的欧洲邻国却越来越富有，在东部的，以及法国和德国等国家也是。
“I’m not comfortable with that; not comfortable with a trajectory that will soon see Britain overtaken by Poland. Nor am I prepared to accept what the consequences of this failure would mean.”
“我对此感到不舒服；对英国很快将被波兰超越的发展轨迹感到不舒服。我也不准备接受这次失败的后果。”
“我对此感到不舒服；对英国很快将被波兰超越的发展轨迹感到不舒服。我也不准备接受这次失败的后果。”
He is set to add: “I don’t want a Britain where young people, in our great towns and cities, are left with no option but to get out. A brain drain, not just to London or Edinburgh, but to Lyon, Munich and Warsaw. That’s not the future our country deserves.”
他还将补充说：“我不希望英国的年轻人在我们伟大的城镇和城市里别无选择，只能离开。人才流失，不仅流向伦敦或爱丁堡，还流向里昂、慕尼黑和华沙。这不是我们国家应得的未来。”
他还将补充说：“我不希望英国的年轻人在我们伟大的城镇和城市里别无选择，只能离开。人才流失，不仅流向伦敦或爱丁堡，还流向里昂、慕尼黑和华沙。这不是我们国家应得的未来。”
Sir Keir pledged to secure the highest sustained growth in the G7, along with providing productivity growth in every part of the country. He is expected to tell voters on Monday they should “judge me on whether you feel better-off after five years of a Labour government”.
基尔爵士承诺确保七国集团中最高的持续增长，同时在全国各地实现生产率增长。预计他将在周一告诉选民，他们应该“根据你在工党执政5年后是否感觉更好来评判我”。
基尔爵士承诺确保七国集团中最高的持续增长，同时在全国各地实现生产率增长。预计他将在周一告诉选民，他们应该“根据你在工党执政5年后是否感觉更好来评判我”。
Labour said the party’s leader will pledge to “unlock the potential of every region and every nation” if he enters No 10 after the next election, which is expected in 2024.
工党表示，如果党首在下届大选（预计2024年举行）后入主唐宁街10号，他将承诺“释放每个地区和每个国家的潜力”。
工党表示，如果党首在下届大选（预计2024年举行）后入主唐宁街10号，他将承诺“释放每个地区和每个国家的潜力”。
Officials briefed that Sir Keir will lay out how higher growth will be passed on to families under his proposals. A paper set to be published ahead of the speech says that having the highest sustained growth in the G7 would mean income growing faster, people having more savings, new jobs and vibrant high streets.
官员们通报说，基尔爵士将阐述如何根据他的提议将更高的增长传递给家庭。在他发表讲话之前将发表的一篇论文称，拥有七国集团中最高的持续增长，将意味着收入增长更快、人们有更多储蓄、新的就业机会和充满活力的大街。
官员们通报说，基尔爵士将阐述如何根据他的提议将更高的增长传递给家庭。在他发表讲话之前将发表的一篇论文称，拥有七国集团中最高的持续增长，将意味着收入增长更快、人们有更多储蓄、新的就业机会和充满活力的大街。
After the speech, the leader and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves will host a roundtable of business leaders. It comes as Lord Sainsbury revealed that he had made a £2m donation to Labour, his first multimillion pound gift to the party since 2016.
演讲结束后，这位党派领导人和影子大臣瑞秋·里夫斯将主持商业领袖圆桌会议。与此同时，塞恩斯伯里勋爵透露，他向工党捐赠了200万英镑，这是他自2016年以来首次向该党捐赠数百万英镑。
演讲结束后，这位党派领导人和影子大臣瑞秋·里夫斯将主持商业领袖圆桌会议。与此同时，塞恩斯伯里勋爵透露，他向工党捐赠了200万英镑，这是他自2016年以来首次向该党捐赠数百万英镑。
Speaking ahead of Sir Keir’s speech, John Allan, Tesco chairman, said many businesses “will welcome Labour’s commitment to achieving sustained economic growth”, adding: “Now we need to work together to create a detailed plan so that, if Labour form the next government, they can hit the ground running on day one.”
在基尔爵士发表演讲之前，乐购董事长约翰·艾伦表示，许多企业“将欢迎工党对实现持续经济增长的承诺”。他补充称：“现在我们需要共同努力，制定一份详细的计划，这样，如果工党组建下一届政府，他们就能在第一天就开始工作。”
在基尔爵士发表演讲之前，乐购董事长约翰·艾伦表示，许多企业“将欢迎工党对实现持续经济增长的承诺”。他补充称：“现在我们需要共同努力，制定一份详细的计划，这样，如果工党组建下一届政府，他们就能在第一天就开始工作。”
Tory chairman Greg Hands claimed that Labour’s plan for government included £90bn of “unfunded spending”.
保守党主席格雷格·汉兹则声称，工党的政府计划包括900亿英镑的“无资金支持的支出“。
保守党主席格雷格·汉兹则声称，工党的政府计划包括900亿英镑的“无资金支持的支出“。
He said: “The last time Labour left office, there was no money left, debt was spiralling, and unemployment soared, something the British people will never forget. Everyone already knows what Labour would do to the economy – with £90bn of unfunded spending, that would just lead to endless borrowing and higher debt.”
他说：“上次工党下台时，没有钱了，债务不断上升，失业率飙升，英国人永远不会忘记这些。每个人都知道工党会对经济做什么——900亿英镑的无资金支持的支出，只会导致无休止的借贷和更高的债务。”
他说：“上次工党下台时，没有钱了，债务不断上升，失业率飙升，英国人永远不会忘记这些。每个人都知道工党会对经济做什么——900亿英镑的无资金支持的支出，只会导致无休止的借贷和更高的债务。”
评论翻译
ConfidentBag592
Maybe I got it wrong but from my german perspective economicly speaking poland is doing well isnt it?
也许我搞错了，但从我一个德国人的角度来看，波兰在经济上做得不错，不是吗？
Maybe I got it wrong but from my german perspective economicly speaking poland is doing well isnt it?
也许我搞错了，但从我一个德国人的角度来看，波兰在经济上做得不错，不是吗？
PaciorrMazovia (Poland)
One of the highest growths in the last 30 years but it’s not all that great either. We dont innovate much and the social security is going to collapse under it’s weight sooner or later because of demographic crisis.
是过去30年里最高的增长之一，但也不是很好。我们没有太多创新，社会保障迟早会因为人口危机而崩溃的。
One of the highest growths in the last 30 years but it’s not all that great either. We dont innovate much and the social security is going to collapse under it’s weight sooner or later because of demographic crisis.
是过去30年里最高的增长之一，但也不是很好。我们没有太多创新，社会保障迟早会因为人口危机而崩溃的。
EmbarrassedBlock1977
the social security is going to collapse under it’s weight sooner or later because of demographic crisis.
This is something that's going on in almost all western nations right now. Including Japan and China. Too many old to people to care for and too few young/middle-aged people to pay for elderly care.
“社会保障迟早会因为人口危机而崩溃的”
这是现在几乎所有西方国家都在发生的事情。包括日本和中国。太多的老人需要照顾，而太少的年轻人/中年人负担不起老年人的照顾。
the social security is going to collapse under it’s weight sooner or later because of demographic crisis.
This is something that's going on in almost all western nations right now. Including Japan and China. Too many old to people to care for and too few young/middle-aged people to pay for elderly care.
“社会保障迟早会因为人口危机而崩溃的”
这是现在几乎所有西方国家都在发生的事情。包括日本和中国。太多的老人需要照顾，而太少的年轻人/中年人负担不起老年人的照顾。
Portalrules123
Yeah turns out we KINDA accidentally created a global ponzi scheme. I mean it should have been obvious that exponential growth couldn't last but.....
是啊，结果我们不小心创造了一个全球庞氏骗局。我的意思是，很明显，指数增长不可能持续下去，但（人口危机会越来越严重）……
Yeah turns out we KINDA accidentally created a global ponzi scheme. I mean it should have been obvious that exponential growth couldn't last but.....
是啊，结果我们不小心创造了一个全球庞氏骗局。我的意思是，很明显，指数增长不可能持续下去，但（人口危机会越来越严重）……
IamWildlamb
Productivity increases coud have continued on forever. The real ponzi schemes are european welfare systems that guaranteed certain and unsustainable baseline quality of life but that guarantee is going to last only for 2-3 generations while the rest will pay for it their entire working life and get nothing in return. And this (which is paid by constantly increasing tax burden) is also something that sped up demographic crisis because if young peope live in tax hell holes, indirectly taking care of other adults so they do not really feel like having children of their own to take care of another burden on top of it. I can guarantee you that US system will not have these same issues that Europe, Japan and China faces. Because people there are used to taking care of themselves rather than having someone else care for them. And while someone could argue that it is not as "morally right" as European social security net I learned to disagree. What I think is not morally right is to give current few generations better treatment on expense of future generations that will never see the same treatment ever in their lifes. Because it exists on borrowed time.
生产率的提高本可以永远持续下去。真正的庞氏骗局是欧洲的福利制度，它保证了一定的和不可持续的基线生活质量，但这种保证只会持续2-3代人，而其余的人将在整个工作生涯中为此付出，却得不到任何回报。而这（通过不断增加的税收负担来支付）也加速了人口危机，因为如果年轻人生活在税收地狱，间接地照顾其他成年人，所以他们真的不想有自己的孩子来照顾另一个负担。我可以向你保证，美国的体系不会出现欧洲、日本和中国面临的这些问题。因为那里的人习惯了照顾自己，而不是让别人来照顾他们。虽然有人可能会说，它不像欧洲的社会安全网那样“在道德上正确”，但我学会了不同意。因为我认为，以牺牲未来几代人一生中永远不会看到同样的待遇为代价，给这几代人更好的待遇，这才是道德上的不正确。因为它借用了子孙后代的福利。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Productivity increases coud have continued on forever. The real ponzi schemes are european welfare systems that guaranteed certain and unsustainable baseline quality of life but that guarantee is going to last only for 2-3 generations while the rest will pay for it their entire working life and get nothing in return. And this (which is paid by constantly increasing tax burden) is also something that sped up demographic crisis because if young peope live in tax hell holes, indirectly taking care of other adults so they do not really feel like having children of their own to take care of another burden on top of it. I can guarantee you that US system will not have these same issues that Europe, Japan and China faces. Because people there are used to taking care of themselves rather than having someone else care for them. And while someone could argue that it is not as "morally right" as European social security net I learned to disagree. What I think is not morally right is to give current few generations better treatment on expense of future generations that will never see the same treatment ever in their lifes. Because it exists on borrowed time.
生产率的提高本可以永远持续下去。真正的庞氏骗局是欧洲的福利制度，它保证了一定的和不可持续的基线生活质量，但这种保证只会持续2-3代人，而其余的人将在整个工作生涯中为此付出，却得不到任何回报。而这（通过不断增加的税收负担来支付）也加速了人口危机，因为如果年轻人生活在税收地狱，间接地照顾其他成年人，所以他们真的不想有自己的孩子来照顾另一个负担。我可以向你保证，美国的体系不会出现欧洲、日本和中国面临的这些问题。因为那里的人习惯了照顾自己，而不是让别人来照顾他们。虽然有人可能会说，它不像欧洲的社会安全网那样“在道德上正确”，但我学会了不同意。因为我认为，以牺牲未来几代人一生中永远不会看到同样的待遇为代价，给这几代人更好的待遇，这才是道德上的不正确。因为它借用了子孙后代的福利。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
shweatin
Indirectly taking care of each other through taxation and social services is the definition of a kind society. I wouldn’t want to live anywhere that doesn’t do this. And your wrong, Medicaid and state pensions are some of the most popular schemes in the history of modern America. Ever seen a politician try and cut it and succeed? Yeah you won’t, cause they don’t make it to their next term. There’s a lot of problems with Western European countrys but social safety nets and state funded healthcare isn’t one of them.
通过税收和社会服务间接照顾彼此，这就是善良社会的定义。我可不想生活在没有这个的地方。你错了，医疗补助和国家养老金是现代美国历史上最受欢迎的计划。你见过政客试图切断它并成功吗？是啊，你不会看到的，因为他们不会坚持到下个任期的。西欧国家有很多问题，但社会安全网和国家资助的医疗保健不是其中之一。
Indirectly taking care of each other through taxation and social services is the definition of a kind society. I wouldn’t want to live anywhere that doesn’t do this. And your wrong, Medicaid and state pensions are some of the most popular schemes in the history of modern America. Ever seen a politician try and cut it and succeed? Yeah you won’t, cause they don’t make it to their next term. There’s a lot of problems with Western European countrys but social safety nets and state funded healthcare isn’t one of them.
通过税收和社会服务间接照顾彼此，这就是善良社会的定义。我可不想生活在没有这个的地方。你错了，医疗补助和国家养老金是现代美国历史上最受欢迎的计划。你见过政客试图切断它并成功吗？是啊，你不会看到的，因为他们不会坚持到下个任期的。西欧国家有很多问题，但社会安全网和国家资助的医疗保健不是其中之一。
IamWildlamb
Of course that something has to exist and of course that US has something as well. But there is no universe that it should be on borrowed time. Ever. The moment you introduce it as ponzi scheme so people who are of certain age will get it right now until money runs and the rest who paid for it does not get anything in few decades of time then you set up that system wrong. And this is precisely what is going to happen in Europe. Italy will be first big economy to falll with Spain to follow and with Germany to follow. Germany will be able to leech young Italians and Spanish that will start fleeing once their countries completely fall apart but even they will not escape the pyramid scheme they created. The difference between European systems and US system is that US one is sustainable. For many reasons including the general consensus of people who know that noone will take care of them and work their entire life to be independant. Which is attitude that does not exist in Europe. This attitude is also what fuels US growth and why we are falling further behind each year. Americans invest because they know they need to invest. And as such companies get money and economy grows. Which grows money that is not just blindly redistributed like it is in European systems but that is invested and snowballs value over time.
You can indeed be selfish and want your absurd social security net that someone else pays for. If you are like 20-60 years old depending on country then you will of course benefit immensly on someone elses expense. I for one think that this is the thing that is immoral. Taking absurd amount of money from someone because you can squeeze it from him for your own benefit while fully knowing he will not get the same treatment is not moral in my book. And it is the reason why young people do not have kids. Social security contributions in Germany increased almost 3 times in last 60 years. Like what are we even tallking about. Of course that people do not want to care about their own chidren if they are allready paying absurd amount to indirectly take care of other people. And not just take care of. To give them absurdly high and unsustainable baseline.
The extremelly simple comparison between US and Germany to see which is ponzi scheme and which is not. US pensions - both private and public are invested in funds. German public pensions just like most of Europe with very few exceptions such as Norway are "pay as you go" which means redistributed. You pay your contribution and it is immidiately taken and given to someone else with zero added value over time. This makes them pyramid schemes because it requires more people to pay for aging population. And while Germany does have private pension funds just like US, people are so absurdly taxed there that even if they wanted to they could not send there any meaningful contribution anyway. So noone except for like top 1% can realistically escape the unsustainable codependancy that once again works on borrowed time and eventually there will be the day where some people wil not see any of those benefits that you take for granted. Because it is not granted, it is borrowed.
当然，有些东西必须存在，当然，美国也有一些东西。但是，没有什么世界是应该被借走的。永远没有。当你把它称为庞氏骗局的时候，即一定年龄的人会马上得到它，直到钱用光，而其他人在几十年后什么都得不到，那么你就把这个体系设置错了。这正是欧洲将要发生的事情。意大利将是第一个衰落的大型经济体，西班牙紧随其后，德国紧随其后。德国将能够吸引意大利和西班牙的年轻人，一旦他们的国家完全崩溃，他们就会开始逃离，但即使是他们也无法逃离自己创造的金字塔骗局。欧洲体系和美国体系的区别在于，美国体系是可持续的。有很多原因，包括人们的普遍共识，他们知道没有人会照顾他们，他们的整个生活都是独立的。但这种心态在欧洲并不存在。这种心态也是美国经济增长的动力，也是我们每年都在进一步落后的原因。美国人投资是因为他们知道他们需要投资。随着这些公司获得资金和经济增长。这就增加了资金，而不是像欧洲体系那样盲目地重新分配，而是随着时间的推移进行投资和滚雪球式的增值。
你确实可以很自私，想要别人支付的荒谬的社会保障网络。如果你的年龄在20-60岁之间，这取决于你所在的国家，那么你当然会从别人的支出中获益良多。我个人认为这是不道德的事情。在我看来，从别人那里拿走荒谬的钱，因为你可以为了自己的利益从他那里榨取，同时完全知道他不会得到同样的待遇，这就是不道德的。这也是为什么年轻人不肯生孩子的原因。在过去的60年里，德国的社会保障缴款增加了近3倍。就像我们正在说的。人们显然不想照顾自己的孩子，如果他们已经支付了荒谬的金额来间接照顾其他人。而且不仅仅是照顾。而是给他们一个高得离谱且不可持续的（社保）基线。
美国和德国之间的比较非常简单，可以看出哪些是庞氏骗局，哪些不是。美国的养老金——无论是私人的还是公共的——都投资于基金。德国的公共养老金就像大多数欧洲国家一样，只有极少数例外，比如挪威，是“现收现付”，这意味着重新分配。你支付了你的贡献，它立即被拿走，并随着时间的推移给别人零附加值。这使得这些社保项目变成了传销，因为它需要更多的人来支付老龄化人口。尽管德国确实像美国一样有私人养老基金，但那里的人们被荒谬地征税，以至于即使他们想要，他们也无法向那里缴纳任何有意义的缴款。所以，除了最富有的1%，没有人能够真正摆脱这种不可持续的相互依赖，这种相互依赖再次在借来的时间里起作用，最终有一天，一些人将看不到任何你认为理所当然的好处。因为它不是被授予的，而是（跟后代）借来的。
Of course that something has to exist and of course that US has something as well. But there is no universe that it should be on borrowed time. Ever. The moment you introduce it as ponzi scheme so people who are of certain age will get it right now until money runs and the rest who paid for it does not get anything in few decades of time then you set up that system wrong. And this is precisely what is going to happen in Europe. Italy will be first big economy to falll with Spain to follow and with Germany to follow. Germany will be able to leech young Italians and Spanish that will start fleeing once their countries completely fall apart but even they will not escape the pyramid scheme they created. The difference between European systems and US system is that US one is sustainable. For many reasons including the general consensus of people who know that noone will take care of them and work their entire life to be independant. Which is attitude that does not exist in Europe. This attitude is also what fuels US growth and why we are falling further behind each year. Americans invest because they know they need to invest. And as such companies get money and economy grows. Which grows money that is not just blindly redistributed like it is in European systems but that is invested and snowballs value over time.
You can indeed be selfish and want your absurd social security net that someone else pays for. If you are like 20-60 years old depending on country then you will of course benefit immensly on someone elses expense. I for one think that this is the thing that is immoral. Taking absurd amount of money from someone because you can squeeze it from him for your own benefit while fully knowing he will not get the same treatment is not moral in my book. And it is the reason why young people do not have kids. Social security contributions in Germany increased almost 3 times in last 60 years. Like what are we even tallking about. Of course that people do not want to care about their own chidren if they are allready paying absurd amount to indirectly take care of other people. And not just take care of. To give them absurdly high and unsustainable baseline.
The extremelly simple comparison between US and Germany to see which is ponzi scheme and which is not. US pensions - both private and public are invested in funds. German public pensions just like most of Europe with very few exceptions such as Norway are "pay as you go" which means redistributed. You pay your contribution and it is immidiately taken and given to someone else with zero added value over time. This makes them pyramid schemes because it requires more people to pay for aging population. And while Germany does have private pension funds just like US, people are so absurdly taxed there that even if they wanted to they could not send there any meaningful contribution anyway. So noone except for like top 1% can realistically escape the unsustainable codependancy that once again works on borrowed time and eventually there will be the day where some people wil not see any of those benefits that you take for granted. Because it is not granted, it is borrowed.
当然，有些东西必须存在，当然，美国也有一些东西。但是，没有什么世界是应该被借走的。永远没有。当你把它称为庞氏骗局的时候，即一定年龄的人会马上得到它，直到钱用光，而其他人在几十年后什么都得不到，那么你就把这个体系设置错了。这正是欧洲将要发生的事情。意大利将是第一个衰落的大型经济体，西班牙紧随其后，德国紧随其后。德国将能够吸引意大利和西班牙的年轻人，一旦他们的国家完全崩溃，他们就会开始逃离，但即使是他们也无法逃离自己创造的金字塔骗局。欧洲体系和美国体系的区别在于，美国体系是可持续的。有很多原因，包括人们的普遍共识，他们知道没有人会照顾他们，他们的整个生活都是独立的。但这种心态在欧洲并不存在。这种心态也是美国经济增长的动力，也是我们每年都在进一步落后的原因。美国人投资是因为他们知道他们需要投资。随着这些公司获得资金和经济增长。这就增加了资金，而不是像欧洲体系那样盲目地重新分配，而是随着时间的推移进行投资和滚雪球式的增值。
你确实可以很自私，想要别人支付的荒谬的社会保障网络。如果你的年龄在20-60岁之间，这取决于你所在的国家，那么你当然会从别人的支出中获益良多。我个人认为这是不道德的事情。在我看来，从别人那里拿走荒谬的钱，因为你可以为了自己的利益从他那里榨取，同时完全知道他不会得到同样的待遇，这就是不道德的。这也是为什么年轻人不肯生孩子的原因。在过去的60年里，德国的社会保障缴款增加了近3倍。就像我们正在说的。人们显然不想照顾自己的孩子，如果他们已经支付了荒谬的金额来间接照顾其他人。而且不仅仅是照顾。而是给他们一个高得离谱且不可持续的（社保）基线。
美国和德国之间的比较非常简单，可以看出哪些是庞氏骗局，哪些不是。美国的养老金——无论是私人的还是公共的——都投资于基金。德国的公共养老金就像大多数欧洲国家一样，只有极少数例外，比如挪威，是“现收现付”，这意味着重新分配。你支付了你的贡献，它立即被拿走，并随着时间的推移给别人零附加值。这使得这些社保项目变成了传销，因为它需要更多的人来支付老龄化人口。尽管德国确实像美国一样有私人养老基金，但那里的人们被荒谬地征税，以至于即使他们想要，他们也无法向那里缴纳任何有意义的缴款。所以，除了最富有的1%，没有人能够真正摆脱这种不可持续的相互依赖，这种相互依赖再次在借来的时间里起作用，最终有一天，一些人将看不到任何你认为理所当然的好处。因为它不是被授予的，而是（跟后代）借来的。
ThereYouGoreg
In terms of Demographics, Poland is 15 years behind Germany. The largest age group in Poland is 40 years of age, while the largest age group in Germany is 55 years of age. Before any kind of demographic crisis hits Poland, it will take another 20 years. Most people in Poland are still in prime-working age. In addition, Poland is one of the high-achievers in PISA, so most young people in Poland are well-educated.
Poland already has a nominal GDP/capita of $20,000. By 2030, Polish GDP/capita should reach a value between $30,000 to $35,000.
For the past 10 years, the british GDP/capita is stuck between $40,000 to $45,000. If the british pound decreases in value and the economy of the United Kingdom shrinks slightly due to Brexit, then Poland might reach a comparable GDP/capita compared to the UK between 2030 and 2040.
With current trends, this scenario is realistic. I doubt, that the UK will be poorer than Poland by 2030. Equality by 2035 is quite feasible with the current trajectory of Poland.
就人口结构而言，波兰低于德国15年。波兰最大的年龄组是40岁，而德国最大的年龄组是55岁。在任何形式的人口危机袭击波兰之前，还有20年的缓冲期。波兰大多数人仍处于黄金工作年龄。此外，波兰在国际学生评估项目（PISA）中名列前茅，所以波兰的大多数年轻人都受过良好的教育。
波兰的名义GDP已经达到了人均2万美元。到2030年，波兰人均GDP将达到3万至3.5万美元。
在过去10年里，英国人均GDP一直徘徊在4万美元到4.5万美元之间。如果英镑贬值，英国经济因英国脱欧而略有萎缩，那么波兰的人均GDP可能在2030年至2040年间与英国相当。
按照目前的趋势，这种情况是现实的。我怀疑，到2030年，英国会比波兰更穷。按照波兰目前的发展轨迹，到2035年实现平等是完全可行的。
In terms of Demographics, Poland is 15 years behind Germany. The largest age group in Poland is 40 years of age, while the largest age group in Germany is 55 years of age. Before any kind of demographic crisis hits Poland, it will take another 20 years. Most people in Poland are still in prime-working age. In addition, Poland is one of the high-achievers in PISA, so most young people in Poland are well-educated.
Poland already has a nominal GDP/capita of $20,000. By 2030, Polish GDP/capita should reach a value between $30,000 to $35,000.
For the past 10 years, the british GDP/capita is stuck between $40,000 to $45,000. If the british pound decreases in value and the economy of the United Kingdom shrinks slightly due to Brexit, then Poland might reach a comparable GDP/capita compared to the UK between 2030 and 2040.
With current trends, this scenario is realistic. I doubt, that the UK will be poorer than Poland by 2030. Equality by 2035 is quite feasible with the current trajectory of Poland.
就人口结构而言，波兰低于德国15年。波兰最大的年龄组是40岁，而德国最大的年龄组是55岁。在任何形式的人口危机袭击波兰之前，还有20年的缓冲期。波兰大多数人仍处于黄金工作年龄。此外，波兰在国际学生评估项目（PISA）中名列前茅，所以波兰的大多数年轻人都受过良好的教育。
波兰的名义GDP已经达到了人均2万美元。到2030年，波兰人均GDP将达到3万至3.5万美元。
在过去10年里，英国人均GDP一直徘徊在4万美元到4.5万美元之间。如果英镑贬值，英国经济因英国脱欧而略有萎缩，那么波兰的人均GDP可能在2030年至2040年间与英国相当。
按照目前的趋势，这种情况是现实的。我怀疑，到2030年，英国会比波兰更穷。按照波兰目前的发展轨迹，到2035年实现平等是完全可行的。
machine4891Opole (Poland) 3
. I doubt, that the UK will be poorer than Poland by 2030
I doubt it will be poorer ever. Your data assumes constant rate of growth and given, that growth slows with time we can seriously get caught into middle-income trap quite soon. It's not that our GDP pc is going to grow by 10k$ ad infinitum.
UK has a lot of things, that we don't: top world's universities, finance sector, research and development, ports, hubs. To compete, we would need to catch them on a lot of areas at once.
“我怀疑，到2030年，英国会比波兰更穷”
我怀疑更穷的说法。因为你的数据假设增长率恒定，考虑到增长随着时间的推移而放缓，我们很快就会严重陷入中等收入陷阱。这并不是说我们的GDP会无限增长1万美元。
英国有很多我们没有的东西：世界顶尖的大学、金融部门、研发、港口和枢纽。为了与他们竞争，我们需要在很多方面同时赶上他们。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
. I doubt, that the UK will be poorer than Poland by 2030
I doubt it will be poorer ever. Your data assumes constant rate of growth and given, that growth slows with time we can seriously get caught into middle-income trap quite soon. It's not that our GDP pc is going to grow by 10k$ ad infinitum.
UK has a lot of things, that we don't: top world's universities, finance sector, research and development, ports, hubs. To compete, we would need to catch them on a lot of areas at once.
“我怀疑，到2030年，英国会比波兰更穷”
我怀疑更穷的说法。因为你的数据假设增长率恒定，考虑到增长随着时间的推移而放缓，我们很快就会严重陷入中等收入陷阱。这并不是说我们的GDP会无限增长1万美元。
英国有很多我们没有的东西：世界顶尖的大学、金融部门、研发、港口和枢纽。为了与他们竞争，我们需要在很多方面同时赶上他们。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
ThereYouGoreg
Poland is already past the middle-income trap. Countries caught in the middle-income trap don't go much further than a GDP/capita of $10,000.
In PISA, Brazil reached 400 points. Argentina reached 395 points. Poland is at 513 points, it's one of the highest values in the world. A lot of Polish Pupils are capable to be trained in high-tech jobs. [Source]
Poland will be richer than most Southern European Countries by 2030. Depending on the circumstances, it's likely that Poland reaches equality with the United Kingdom by 2035.
波兰已经越过了中等收入陷阱。陷入中等收入陷阱的国家的人均GDP不会超过1万美元。
在PISA测试中，巴西达到了400分。阿根廷395分。波兰的得分为513分，是世界上得分最高的国家之一。许多波兰学生有能力接受高科技工作的培训。（来源链接）
到2030年，波兰将比大多数南欧国家更富有。根据具体情况，波兰很可能在2035年与英国实现平起平坐。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Poland is already past the middle-income trap. Countries caught in the middle-income trap don't go much further than a GDP/capita of $10,000.
In PISA, Brazil reached 400 points. Argentina reached 395 points. Poland is at 513 points, it's one of the highest values in the world. A lot of Polish Pupils are capable to be trained in high-tech jobs. [Source]
Poland will be richer than most Southern European Countries by 2030. Depending on the circumstances, it's likely that Poland reaches equality with the United Kingdom by 2035.
波兰已经越过了中等收入陷阱。陷入中等收入陷阱的国家的人均GDP不会超过1万美元。
在PISA测试中，巴西达到了400分。阿根廷395分。波兰的得分为513分，是世界上得分最高的国家之一。许多波兰学生有能力接受高科技工作的培训。（来源链接）
到2030年，波兰将比大多数南欧国家更富有。根据具体情况，波兰很可能在2035年与英国实现平起平坐。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Aururian Romania
you are genuinely delusional if you believe this to be the case.
other people in this thread have already debunked this and i’m not going to repeat the same points. what i will say is this - london, on its own, accounts for about 40% of global foreign currency trading (about double the market share of new york), and this % has only been rising despite brexit. london is obxtively one of the two biggest financial centres in the world and there are many arguments as to why it should be considered the biggest.
if you genuinely think that in 2030 poland will be wealthier than the uk, you’re completely out of your mind. it’s actually likelier that romania will catch poland as polish growth plateaus following the 2.5 decades of continuous EU investment lmao
如果你相信这是真的，那你就是在妄想。
这个帖子里的其他人已经揭穿了这一点，我不想重复同样的观点。我要说的是——伦敦自己就占了全球外汇交易的40%（大约是纽约市场份额的两倍），尽管英国脱欧了，但这一比例还在上升。伦敦客观上是世界上最大的两个金融中心之一，关于为什么它应该被认为是最大的，有很多争论。
如果你真的认为2030年波兰会比英国更富有，那你就大错特错了。实际上，在欧盟持续投资25年之后，罗马尼亚更有可能赶上波兰，成为波兰的增长平台，呵呵
you are genuinely delusional if you believe this to be the case.
other people in this thread have already debunked this and i’m not going to repeat the same points. what i will say is this - london, on its own, accounts for about 40% of global foreign currency trading (about double the market share of new york), and this % has only been rising despite brexit. london is obxtively one of the two biggest financial centres in the world and there are many arguments as to why it should be considered the biggest.
if you genuinely think that in 2030 poland will be wealthier than the uk, you’re completely out of your mind. it’s actually likelier that romania will catch poland as polish growth plateaus following the 2.5 decades of continuous EU investment lmao
如果你相信这是真的，那你就是在妄想。
这个帖子里的其他人已经揭穿了这一点，我不想重复同样的观点。我要说的是——伦敦自己就占了全球外汇交易的40%（大约是纽约市场份额的两倍），尽管英国脱欧了，但这一比例还在上升。伦敦客观上是世界上最大的两个金融中心之一，关于为什么它应该被认为是最大的，有很多争论。
如果你真的认为2030年波兰会比英国更富有，那你就大错特错了。实际上，在欧盟持续投资25年之后，罗马尼亚更有可能赶上波兰，成为波兰的增长平台，呵呵
cosmodisc
I suggest to visit other parts of the UK,not just London. Big parts of the country have declined a lot, only have low paid jobs and no prospects whatsoever to prosper,no matter who is in the government. London will always remain London, but there's the rest of the country too.
我建议你去英国的其他地方看看，而不仅仅是伦敦。这个国家的大部分地区已经衰落了很多，只有低薪工作，没有任何繁荣的前景，无论是谁在政府。伦敦永远是伦敦，但这个国家的其他地方也一样。
I suggest to visit other parts of the UK,not just London. Big parts of the country have declined a lot, only have low paid jobs and no prospects whatsoever to prosper,no matter who is in the government. London will always remain London, but there's the rest of the country too.
我建议你去英国的其他地方看看，而不仅仅是伦敦。这个国家的大部分地区已经衰落了很多，只有低薪工作，没有任何繁荣的前景，无论是谁在政府。伦敦永远是伦敦，但这个国家的其他地方也一样。
mfizzled United Kingdom
All the big cities are doing well, Leeds/Manchester/Birmingham are also all growing, with Leeds growing at a rate of over 5% in the past decade. The rural places getting poorer while cities get richer is something is happening across the planet.
所有的大城市都做得很好，利兹/曼彻斯特/伯明翰也都在增长，利兹在过去十年的增长率超过5%。农村地区越来越穷，而城市越来越富，这是全球都正在发生的事情。
All the big cities are doing well, Leeds/Manchester/Birmingham are also all growing, with Leeds growing at a rate of over 5% in the past decade. The rural places getting poorer while cities get richer is something is happening across the planet.
所有的大城市都做得很好，利兹/曼彻斯特/伯明翰也都在增长，利兹在过去十年的增长率超过5%。农村地区越来越穷，而城市越来越富，这是全球都正在发生的事情。
JTTGTL Switzerland
Ridiculous headline, UK median wealth per adult 11th in the world with 141k USD while Poland 57th with 16k USD. Long way to go. Whatever metric you look Poland would not reach UK level of development within that short amount of time. Just because Poland has a high eonomic growth doesn't mean anything. Growth is higher in poorer countries but it stagnates at a certain point.
可笑的标题，英国成年人人均财富中位数排名全球第11位，为14.1万美元，波兰为第57位，为1.6万美元。还有很长的路要走。不管你以什么标准衡量，波兰都无法在这么短的时间内达到英国的发展水平。仅仅因为波兰经济高速增长并不意味着什么。贫穷国家的增长率更高，但在一定程度上停滞不前。
Ridiculous headline, UK median wealth per adult 11th in the world with 141k USD while Poland 57th with 16k USD. Long way to go. Whatever metric you look Poland would not reach UK level of development within that short amount of time. Just because Poland has a high eonomic growth doesn't mean anything. Growth is higher in poorer countries but it stagnates at a certain point.
可笑的标题，英国成年人人均财富中位数排名全球第11位，为14.1万美元，波兰为第57位，为1.6万美元。还有很长的路要走。不管你以什么标准衡量，波兰都无法在这么短的时间内达到英国的发展水平。仅仅因为波兰经济高速增长并不意味着什么。贫穷国家的增长率更高，但在一定程度上停滞不前。
Reginaferguson
I know people are putting a negative spin on this but surely the other way to look at it is congratulations to Poland for good economic growth since joining the EU and receiving extra investment.
我知道人们对此有负面看法，但从另一个角度来看，恭喜波兰加入欧盟以来经济增长良好，并获得了额外投资。
I know people are putting a negative spin on this but surely the other way to look at it is congratulations to Poland for good economic growth since joining the EU and receiving extra investment.
我知道人们对此有负面看法，但从另一个角度来看，恭喜波兰加入欧盟以来经济增长良好，并获得了额外投资。
Clayer55Bavaria (Germany)
I'm curious on the math or metric of that, Poland would need to grow over 20% per year for the next 8 years to be on par with the current GDP of the UK by 2030
我对这方面的数学知识或衡量指标很好奇，波兰需要在未来8年每年增长20%以上，才能到2030年达到英国目前的GDP水平
I'm curious on the math or metric of that, Poland would need to grow over 20% per year for the next 8 years to be on par with the current GDP of the UK by 2030
我对这方面的数学知识或衡量指标很好奇，波兰需要在未来8年每年增长20%以上，才能到2030年达到英国目前的GDP水平
Asisvenia
Such a stupid and irresponsible statement from such a trash party. I’m an immigrant in the UK and there is something that I definitely admire about Britain and this is: the values we have here. We have got independent judiciary, very mature democracy, one of the most free and less regulated economy if you compare with EU, individualistic life style in which gives people more freedom and there is this trust that Britain built in a long time. Look at the tech industry in the Europe, during 2022 fast-growing UK tech companies have continued to raise at near-record levels (£24 billion), more than France (£11.8 billion) and Germany (£9.1 billion) combined. So, do you still believe that Poland can take over the UK?
Never been in Poland before but it’s obvious that they do not have these values. They are doing good economically because they are in the EU market and they managed to attract and create businesses there which is good they must have done something correctly but still this achievement is a tiny bit success if you compare with the UK. The values we have cannot be created in a day this needs trust and suitable culture to build on it.
这么愚蠢又不负责任的言论居然出自垃圾党之口。我是英国的一名移民，我非常欣赏英国的一些东西，那就是：我们这里的价值观。我们有独立的司法，非常成熟的民主，如果你与欧盟相比，会发现我们是最自由和监管较少的经济体之一，个人主义的生活方式给了人们更多的自由，英国长期以来建立了这种信任。看看欧洲的科技行业，在2022年，快速增长的英国科技公司继续以接近创纪录的水平（240亿英镑）融资，超过法国（118亿英镑）和德国（91亿英镑）的总和。那么，你还相信波兰能接管英国吗？
我以前从未去过波兰，但很明显他们没有这些价值观。他们在经济上做得很好，因为他们在欧盟市场里，他们设法在那里吸引和创建企业，这很好，他们肯定做了一些正确的事情，但如果与英国相比，这一成就仍然是微小的成功。我们所拥有的价值观不是一天就能创造出来的，这需要信任和合适的文化来建立它。
Such a stupid and irresponsible statement from such a trash party. I’m an immigrant in the UK and there is something that I definitely admire about Britain and this is: the values we have here. We have got independent judiciary, very mature democracy, one of the most free and less regulated economy if you compare with EU, individualistic life style in which gives people more freedom and there is this trust that Britain built in a long time. Look at the tech industry in the Europe, during 2022 fast-growing UK tech companies have continued to raise at near-record levels (£24 billion), more than France (£11.8 billion) and Germany (£9.1 billion) combined. So, do you still believe that Poland can take over the UK?
Never been in Poland before but it’s obvious that they do not have these values. They are doing good economically because they are in the EU market and they managed to attract and create businesses there which is good they must have done something correctly but still this achievement is a tiny bit success if you compare with the UK. The values we have cannot be created in a day this needs trust and suitable culture to build on it.
这么愚蠢又不负责任的言论居然出自垃圾党之口。我是英国的一名移民，我非常欣赏英国的一些东西，那就是：我们这里的价值观。我们有独立的司法，非常成熟的民主，如果你与欧盟相比，会发现我们是最自由和监管较少的经济体之一，个人主义的生活方式给了人们更多的自由，英国长期以来建立了这种信任。看看欧洲的科技行业，在2022年，快速增长的英国科技公司继续以接近创纪录的水平（240亿英镑）融资，超过法国（118亿英镑）和德国（91亿英镑）的总和。那么，你还相信波兰能接管英国吗？
我以前从未去过波兰，但很明显他们没有这些价值观。他们在经济上做得很好，因为他们在欧盟市场里，他们设法在那里吸引和创建企业，这很好，他们肯定做了一些正确的事情，但如果与英国相比，这一成就仍然是微小的成功。我们所拥有的价值观不是一天就能创造出来的，这需要信任和合适的文化来建立它。
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