若美国当时未向日本投放原子弹，会发生什么？
正文翻译
Frank Duncan Extensive study about WWII
弗兰克·邓肯 二战相关深入研究者
Originally Answered: What if America chose not to drop atomic bombs in Japan?
The death toll for both the Japanese and Americans would have been far, far higher.
最初回答：若美国当时未向日本投放原子弹，会发生什么？
无论对日本人还是美国人而言，死亡人数都会比实际情况多得多。
Truman had two options open to him: Drop the atomic bombs, or invade. There was a third option considered and that was just blockade. But in June, 1945, after Germany had surrendered, the Reich Minister of Armaments and War Production Albert_Speer, was debriefed and it was found that the massive bombing campaign against Germany hadn’t done nearly the damage thought and that production had increased up until Germany was being occupied. It was reasoned that if Germany could do it, so could Japan. It had also been proposed to drop a bomb on an uninhabited island as a demonstration. This was considered and rejected for several reasons. First, the Japanese had demonstrated that regardless of the odds, the Japanese military didn’t surrender. This had been proved in hundreds of battles. Then again, dropping a big flashbulb wasn’t going to impress an army like that. In addition, this was one of the most expensive weapons ever developed, second only to the B-29, and not using it that would cost even one American life was totally unacceptable.
杜鲁门当时有两个选择：投放原子弹，或是发动登陆入侵。当时还考虑过第三种方案，即单纯实施封锁。但1945年6月德国投降后，对纳粹德国军备与战时生产部长阿尔贝特·施佩尔的讯问显示，此前对德国发起的大规模轰炸造成的破坏远未达到预期，而且直到德国被占领前，其军工生产仍在增长。由此可推断，既然德国能做到这一点，日本也同样可以。当时还有人提议在无人岛屿投放原子弹，以此作为威慑展示。该提议虽被讨论，但最终因多种原因遭否决。首先，日本此前的表现已表明，无论战局多么不利，日本军方都不会投降，这一点在数百场战役中都得到了证实。再者，这种“放个大烟花”的做法根本无法震慑那样一支军队。此外，原子弹是当时研发成本最高的武器之一，成本仅次于B-29轰炸机，若为不使用它而导致哪怕一名美国人丧生，都是完全无法接受的。
The determination of the Japanese to literally fight to the last man had been demonstrated on Tarawa, Saipan, Iwo Jima, Okinawa and a hundred other battles. It was anticipated that the invasion of Japan, Operation_Downfall, would involve up to a million US casualties and incidentally wipe out the Japanese population. Operation Downfall was the combination of Olympic, the invasion of Kyushu scheduled for November 1, 1945, and Coronet, the invasion of Honshu scheduled for March 1, 1946. The Japanese estimates were that 20 million Japanese would die. Diplomatic and military decrypts had shown that the garrison of Kyushu had increased from 150,000 men to 545,000 while all of Japan now had a garrison of over 2,000,000.
日本人血战到底、战至最后一人的决心，在塔拉瓦、塞班岛、硫磺岛、冲绳岛以及其他上百场战役中都有所体现。当时预计，对日本本土发起的“没落行动”（登陆入侵）将导致多达100万美军伤亡，同时还会间接造成日本民众大量死亡。“没落行动”由两部分组成：计划于1945年11月1日发起的“奥林匹克行动”（进攻九州岛），以及计划于1946年3月1日发起的“王冠行动”（进攻本州岛）。日本方面估计，届时将有2000万日本人丧生。外交与军事解密信息显示，九州岛的驻军已从15万人增至54.5万人，而当时整个日本的驻军人数已超过200万。
In addition to the American plans for an invasion, the British were also planning an invasion of their own with Operation_Zipper to capture part of Malaya, and Operation_Mailfist, for the reoccupation of Singapore. These were to take place shortly after the invasion by the American Operation Downfall but were aborted by the surrender of Japan. The British were very concerned about the possibility of continued Japanese resistance that would have resulted in the deaths of all of the prisoners of war held in the prison camps, along with the many civilians interned since the outbreak of the war.
除美国的登陆入侵计划外，英国也在制定自己的入侵计划：“拉链行动”旨在夺取马来亚部分地区，“重拳行动”则是为了重新占领新加坡。这些行动原计划在美国“没落行动”发起后不久实施，但因日本投降而中止。英国当时非常担心日本会继续抵抗，因为这可能导致集中营中所有战俘以及自战争爆发以来被关押的众多平民全部丧生。
The spring and summer of 1945 saw the Japanese planning and preparing for the Ketsu-Go, or the Decisive Battle for the Homeland。All school classes were cancelled which freed up more than 13,000,000 young people for the coming battle. By the summer of 1945, these people were divided into three types: Special guard Forces composed of older men who were assigned to build fortifications and transport supplies. The Independent Companies who were mobilized reservists who were building camouflaged landing strips for kamikaze’s and were trained for combat. And then there were the Civilian Volunteer Corps formed in June 1945, who were everyone else above the age of 15 and who were set to make munitions, food, and making last ditch weapons. The West was fighting against an enemy where even the women and children were being trained and armed with sharpened bamboo poles to kill the Americans. They were instructed to, “always thrust tall Yankees in their belly.” In short, everyone above the age of 15, male or female, was going to be a soldier to defend the Homeland. Around 2 million civilians were part of the Patriotic Citizens Fighting Corps that were trained for combat even if it was only with sharpened bamboo spears. By August, 1945, the Japanese had accumulated 5,350 airplanes, over 1,000,000 gallons of gasoline and 6,200 fast suicide boats in preparation for the forthcoming American invasion.
1945年春夏两季，日本正在策划并准备“最后作战”，即“本土决战”。当时日本所有学校停课，这使得超过1300万名年轻人可投入即将到来的战斗。到1945年夏季，这些人员被分为三类：一是由年长男性组成的特种警卫部队，负责修建防御工事和运输物资；二是独立连队，成员为动员起来的预备役人员，他们要为神风特攻队修建伪装跑道，同时接受战斗训练；三是1945年6月组建的民间志愿队，成员涵盖所有15岁以上的其他人群，负责制造弹药、粮食以及绝境作战用的武器。西方盟国当时面对的敌人，甚至连妇女和儿童都接受了训练，他们手持削尖的竹竿，准备杀死美国人，还被教导要“朝着高个子 Yankees（指美国人）的肚子捅”。简而言之，所有15岁以上的人，无论男女，都要成为士兵保卫本土。约200万平民加入了“爱国市民战斗队”，即便只能使用削尖的竹矛，他们也接受了战斗训练。到1945年8月，日本已囤积了5350架飞机、超过100万加仑汽油以及6200艘高速自杀式快艇，为即将到来的美军入侵做准备。
These are the people who simply didn’t surrender. They literally jump off of cliffs to their death before surrender. Look at the statistics that faced the Americans. In 1943, at Buna, New Guinea, out of 14,000 Japanese troops, not one surrendered. In 1943, on Kiska, Alaska, out of 2,500 troops, there were 28 prisoners, some wounded. On Tarawa, out of 3,600 troops, 17 surrendered. On Saipan, there were 32,000 troops, and there were 921 prisoners. On Peleliu, out of 10,900 Japanese soldiers, 19 were captured, along with 183 laborers. On Iwo Jima, there were 21,000 troops, and 216 surrendered. In the Philippines, 56,263 Japanese soldiers were killed, but only 389 surrendered. Just in the battle for Manila, 1,000 US soldiers died, but the entire garrison of 17,000 Japanese soldiers fought and died to the very last man-and over 100,000 civilians were massacred. On Okinawa, graves registration buried 110,701 dead and 7,401 were captured. Simply put, these are not an enemy you can scare. They didn’t scare. They looked Death in the face up close and personal, face-to-face, eyeball-to-eyeball, and didn’t blx. With very, very few exceptions, they simply wouldn’t surrender.
这些人就是绝不投降的典型。他们宁愿跳崖自尽，也不愿投降。看看美军当时面临的统计数据便知：1943年，新几内亚布纳战役中，1.4万名日军无一人投降；1943年，阿拉斯加基斯卡岛战役中，2500名日军仅产生28名战俘，其中部分还是伤员；塔拉瓦战役中，3600名日军仅17人投降；塞班岛战役中，3.2万名日军产生921名战俘；佩莱利乌岛战役中，1.09万名日军仅19人被俘，另有183名劳工被俘；硫磺岛战役中，2.1万名日军仅216人投降；在菲律宾战场，5.6263万名日军被击毙，仅389人投降；仅在马尼拉战役中，就有1000名美军士兵阵亡，而驻守的1.7万名日军全部战斗至最后一人，无一生还，同时还有超过10万名平民惨遭屠杀；冲绳岛战役中，根据墓地登记记录，共有11.0701万名日军被掩埋（即阵亡），仅7401人被俘。简而言之，这不是一支可以用威慑吓退的敌人。他们毫不畏惧，即便与死亡近距离面对面、眼神对峙，也丝毫没有退缩。除极少数例外情况，他们就是绝不投降。
The loss ratio between American and Japanese losses had become alarming. Six out of ten US casualties in the Pacific took place in the last 11 months of the war. In Luzon, in the Philippines, the Americans had lost 31,000 casualties and the Japanese 156,000 or a ratio of about 1 American to 5 Japanese. On Iwo Jima, the loss ratio had fallen to 1 American to 1.25 Japanese. As the battle on Okinawa raged, the ratio was 1 American casualty for 1.6 Japanese losses. In addition to the casualties of soldiers, the Americans had also lost 12 destroyers, 15 amphibious ships and 9 others with 386 damaged in addition to over 760 aircraft and 225 tanks. It was clear that any battle on Japanese soil would result in even more fanatical resistance than the Americans had met so far.
美日双方的伤亡比例已变得令人担忧。太平洋战场上，美军10例伤亡中有6例发生在战争的最后11个月。在菲律宾吕宋岛战役中，美军伤亡3.1万人，日军伤亡15.6万人，美日伤亡比约为1:5；硫磺岛战役中，这一比例降至1:1.25；冲绳岛战役激战期间，美日伤亡比为1:1.6。除士兵伤亡外，美军还损失了12艘驱逐舰、15艘两栖舰艇以及9艘其他类型船只，另有386艘船只受损，同时损失的还有760多架飞机和225辆坦克。显然，若在日本本土作战，美军遭遇的抵抗将比此前任何时候都更为狂热。
The decision to use the atomic bombs is more clearly shown by this excerpt from Major General Charles Sweeny’s book The War’s End:
查尔斯·斯威尼少将在其著作《战争的终结》中的这段摘录，更清晰地说明了使用原子弹这一决定的背景：
“The only facts and numbers that are relevant to a discussion of Truman’s decision, therefore, are those facts and numbers the president had in front of him in July 1945. The staggering casualties at Iwo Jima and Okinawa were not projections, they were memorialized by rows of white crosses and hospital wards filled with broken bodies. In each case, Japanese military forces fought to the death, as they had done everywhere else. The casualty ratio as the United States drew closer to Japan was one to two.
“因此，在讨论杜鲁门的这一决定时，唯一相关的事实与数据，是1945年7月呈现在总统面前的那些事实与数据。硫磺岛和冲绳岛战役中惊人的伤亡数字并非预测，而是由一排排白色十字架（象征阵亡士兵）和满是伤残士兵的医院病房所印证的事实。在这两场战役中，日本军队都战斗至最后一刻，正如他们在其他所有战场的表现一样。随着美军逐步逼近日本本土，美日伤亡比已降至1:2。
Based upon the realities, Truman’s military advisers, in a White House meeting on June 18, 1945, predicted that 30 to 35 percent of the 770,000-man invasion force could reasonably be expected to be killed or wounded during just the first thirty days of the invasion of Kyushu. Translation 231,000 to 269,000 dead or wounded Americans in the first thirty days of combat. It was estimated that it would take a hundred and twenty days to secure and occupy the entire island. By the end of that four-month period, Americans casualties would realistically reach around 395,000. And over one million of our troops still awaited the second prong of the invasion. In March 1946 they would wade ashore near Tokyo to take Honshu.
基于这些现实情况，杜鲁门的军事顾问们在1945年6月18日的白宫会议上预测，在进攻九州岛的最初30天内，77万人的入侵部队中，预计有30%至35%的人可能伤亡。换算成具体数字就是：战斗最初30天内，美军伤亡人数将达到23.1万至26.9万人。当时估计，要完全控制并占领整个九州岛需要120天。到这四个月结束时，美军实际伤亡人数有望达到约39.5万人。此外，还有超过100万美军士兵在等待入侵行动的第二阶段——1946年3月，他们将在东京附近登陆，进攻本州岛。
These estimates assumed, of course, that all would go according to plan. Yet Okinawa had expected to fall in two weeks; instead the battle had dragged into eighty-two days, and even then it took several more weeks after that to secure the island.”
当然，这些估计的前提是一切都按计划进行。但此前冲绳岛战役原本预计两周内就能结束，结果却拖了82天，即便如此，在战役结束后又花了好几周时间才完全控制该岛。”
Consider the effect such a decision NOT to use the atomic bombs would have had in the United States. How could anyone tell an American mother that the United States let her son be killed because bombing was too cruel? Ask any mother if she felt that it was OK for her child to die because we were reluctant to kill the enemy. Tell any mother that we let her son be killed because we didn’t want to be too cruel to the Japanese.
试想一下，若当时决定不使用原子弹，这会对美国产生何种影响？谁能去告诉一位美国母亲，她的儿子牺牲是因为美国认为轰炸过于残忍？问问任何一位母亲，她是否能接受自己的孩子因我们不愿杀害敌人而丧生？告诉任何一位母亲，我们让她的儿子牺牲是因为不想对日本人过于残忍？
The spirit of the time was much more than determined to eliminate the Japanese Empire. The Japanese had made a sneak attack on Pearl Harbor while in the middle of peace talks. They were duplicitous, brutal animals that were as cruel as Vlad the Impaler. They had shown no mercy whatsoever in their conquests and so deserved none. They had killed thousands at Pearl Harbor, killed thousands more in the Bataan Death march, and on Okinawa, the Japanese did not take a single American prisoner. They killed every single American they captured. Every last one. The attitude of the American people at that time was that the only good Jap was a dead Jap.
当时的社会氛围远不止是决心摧毁日本帝国那么简单。日本在和平谈判期间对珍珠港发动了偷袭，他们是像穿刺公弗拉德一样残忍、狡诈的暴徒。在征服过程中，他们毫无怜悯之心，因此也不配得到任何怜悯。他们在珍珠港杀害了数千人，在巴丹死亡行军中又杀害了数千人，而在冲绳岛战役中，日军没有抓获任何一名美国战俘，他们将捕获的每一个美国人都杀害了，一个不留。当时美国民众的态度是：“死了的日本人才是好日本人”。
The modern day revisionists and apologists completely ignore several important considerations about the bombing campaign. Up to the moment of Pearl Harbor, the population of the United States was very isolationist. The general opinion was “Let those Europeans stew in their own juices.” We didn’t want to get involved in another Great War. The attack on Pearl Harbor changed that in a single day. By 1945, we had lost hundreds of thousands in dead and wounded fighting a war we did not start or want. We had spent treasure to supply the world with the weapons of war – again - a war we didn’t start or want. The American people were united in their hatred of the Japanese. The Japanese had made an unprovoked attack without a declaration of war. A sneak attack killing thousands of Americans while we were still at peace.
现代修正主义者和辩护者完全忽视了与轰炸行动相关的几个重要因素。在珍珠港事件发生前，美国民众普遍奉行孤立主义，主流观点是“让欧洲人自食其果”，我们不愿卷入另一场世界大战。但珍珠港的袭击在一天之内改变了这一切。到1945年，我们在这场并非由我们发起、也非我们所愿的战争中，已付出了数十万伤亡的代价，还耗费巨资为世界提供战争武器——同样，这是一场我们不愿参与、也未曾挑起的战争。美国民众对日本的仇恨空前一致，因为日本在未宣战的情况下发动了无端攻击，在两国仍处于和平状态时，以偷袭方式杀害了数千名美国人。
The US military knew that Japan was militarily defeated by 1943, and by1944 had no chance for winning the war. Now, even when obviously defeated, they would not surrender. They would commit suicide before surrendering. Their concept of surrender was such that it would dishonor themselves, their families and far worse, their ancestors. When they said, ”Death before dishonor,” they really meant it in a very literal sense. The Japanese mindset was so fundamentally different that we in the West simply could not understand why they wouldn't surrender when they were defeated. Until the Japanese realized it was time to surrender, the war would continue.
美国军方早在1943年就知道日本在军事上已遭重创，到1944年时，日本已毫无获胜可能。然而，即便已明显战败，他们仍拒绝投降，宁愿自杀也不愿屈服。在他们的观念中，投降会玷污自己、家族的荣誉，更严重的是，会玷污祖先的名誉。当他们说“宁死不屈”时，是完全字面意义上的坚定信念。日本人的思维方式与我们西方人截然不同，我们根本无法理解为何他们在战败后仍不愿投降。除非日本主动意识到该投降了，否则战争将持续下去。
It might be noted that General “Stormin’ Norman” Schwartzkopf wrote a paper when he was a cadet that in 1945 the Quartermaster Corps of the Army ordered 750,000 Purple Hearts prior to the invasion because, based on the casualties so far in the Pacific Theater, that is how many US casualties they expected during the invasions. Modern day revisionists should consider what the people on scene, at that time and place expected.
值得一提的是，“诺曼风暴”施瓦茨科普夫将军在军校就读期间曾撰写过一篇论文，其中提到1945年，美国陆军军需兵部队在计划入侵日本前订购了75万枚紫心勋章——基于太平洋战场此前的伤亡情况，这正是他们预计入侵行动中会产生的美军伤亡人数。现代修正主义者应当思考，当时身处那个时代、那个环境的人们是如何预判局势的。
The Japanese had correctly identified the beaches where the Americans would have to invade their islands. The Japanese had planned a final stand with the Ketsugo Operation that was being prepared by a stream of reinforcements from the other islands. Over 5000 aircraft and a million gallons of fuel had been accumulated in secret caves ready to be launched against the expected invasion fleet. Our photoreconnaissance clearly showed that they were not planning to surrender, but to fight to the bitter end. They had thousands of cannon and machine guns aimed at those beaches.
日本已准确预判到美军将登陆的海滩位置，并计划通过“决号作战”进行最后抵抗——他们不断从其他岛屿调派援军，积极备战。日军在秘密洞穴中囤积了超过5000架飞机和100万加仑汽油，随时准备对抗预期中的入侵舰队。我们的航空侦察清晰显示，他们毫无投降之意，而是要战斗到最后一刻，数千门大炮和机枪已瞄准了那些登陆海滩。
The fire bombings of the cities had killed far more people than the atomic bombs did, but the atomic bombs had become a change in quantity that was a change in quality. Even at the very end, it was only the direct intervention of the Emperor who only just barely prevailed over the military who wanted to fight on.
此前对日本城市的燃烧弹轰炸造成的死亡人数远超过原子弹，但原子弹带来的伤亡规模变化，实则引发了质的改变。即便到了战争最后时刻，也是在天皇直接干预下，才勉强压制住了主张继续作战的军方势力。
There were also other reasons to end the war as quickly as possible. The Japanese were running out of food and we knew that orders had gone out to kill all prisoners of war. The Japanese held 168,000 prisoners of war! In fact, in preparation for that event, the Japanese had forced the POWs to dig trenches for their own graves. It was certain that when we started to invade the home islands, all the prisoners in Japanese hands would be massacred.
此外，还有其他必须尽快结束战争的原因。日本当时已濒临粮食枯竭，而我们得知，日军已下达处决所有战俘的命令——当时日本关押着16.8万名战俘！事实上，为执行这一命令，日军已强迫战俘挖掘用于掩埋自己的壕沟。可以肯定的是，一旦我们开始入侵日本本土，所有在日军手中的战俘都将遭到屠杀。
Besides the prisoners of war, there were also tens of thousands of civilian internees who would undoubtedly be slaughtered. In addition, there were hundreds of thousands of Japanese troops scattered throughout Asia as garrison troops. They had to be ordered to surrender or they could have created a hundred Nanking's when the invasion took place. So there was more than simply defeating the Japanese Army, there had to be a direction of surrender, or at least to stop fighting.
除战俘外，还有数万平民被关押，他们无疑也会遭到屠杀。此外，还有数十万日军作为驻军分散在亚洲各地，必须有明确的投降命令传达给他们，否则在入侵行动开始后，他们可能会制造出上百个“南京大屠杀”式的惨案。因此，我们的目标不仅仅是击败日本军队，更需要让他们明确投降方向，至少停止抵抗。
The terrible possibility of an American” Lost Generation” like that of England and France must have been one of the reasons why President Truman sanctioned the use of the atomic bombs. He was a combat proven officer in WWI and would rather drop the bombs than lose the lives of his troops.
杜鲁门总统批准使用原子弹，原因之一必定是担心美国会像英国和法国那样，出现“迷惘的一代”——这一后果不堪设想。他曾是一战中经过实战检验的军官，宁愿投放原子弹，也不愿让自己的士兵牺牲。
Mitsuo Fuchida, the pilot who guided the first wave of Japanese planes in the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, met Paul Tibbets, the pilot of the Enola Gay, who had dropped the bomb on Hiroshima. He told Paul, “You did the right thing. You know the Japanese attitude of that time, how fanatic they were. They’d die for the Emperor. Every man woman and child would resist the invasion with sticks and stones if necessary.”
曾率领第一波日军飞机偷袭珍珠港的飞行员渊田美津雄，后来与驾驶“埃诺拉·盖伊”号轰炸机在广岛投下原子弹的保罗·蒂贝茨会面。他对保罗说：“你做得对。你了解当时日本人的态度，他们是多么狂热，愿意为天皇献出生命。必要时，每一个男人、女人和孩子都会拿起棍棒和石头抵抗入侵。”
The Japanese have a saying that sometimes the greatest mercy is to show no mercy. We showed no mercy and saved millions of lives!
日本人有句谚语：有时最大的仁慈就是毫不留情。我们当时的“毫不留情”，拯救了数百万人的生命！
Steven Haddock
LL.B. degree, 25 years in litigation, administrative law, collections, bankruptcy and professional regulation
史蒂文·哈多克 法学学士学位，拥有25年诉讼、行政法、债务催收、破产及职业监管领域从业经验
Originally Answered: What would happen if the US didn't drop the atomic bomb on Japan?
最初回答：若美国未向日本投放原子弹，会发生什么？
I am often astonished that people miss the obvious.
And the obvious here… is the Soviet unx.
我常常感到惊讶，人们竟然忽略了一个显而易见的关键点。
而这个关键点……就是苏联。
It isn’t discussed much because the war did end in August 1945, but one of the things that Truman considered when dropping the bomb was the Soviet commitment to attacking Japan. The Americans knew Soviet intervention was coming, and when. Stalin wanted a cut of Japan and the Americans knew that.
这一点很少被提及，因为战争确实在1945年8月结束了，但杜鲁门决定投放原子弹时，考量因素之一便是苏联承诺进攻日本的事宜。美国人事先知晓苏联即将介入，也清楚介入的时间点——斯大林想要在日本分一杯羹，这一点美国人心知肚明。
The same day the second bomb dropped, the Soviet unx attacked Japanese forces in Manchuria. As part of that, they captured the Manchurian emperor Henry Pu Yi, and hooked up with Chinese communists in Northeast China, further destabilizing China’s internal struggles. After the Japanese surrender, Russia stayed in Manchuria until the Chinese communist takeover, handed over Pu Yi to the communists, and patted themselves on the back for a job well done.
第二颗原子弹投放的当天，苏联便对驻扎在中国东北的日军发动了进攻。在此过程中，他们俘获了伪满洲国皇帝溥仪，并与中国东北地区的***取得联系，进一步加剧了中国内部斗争的动荡局势。日本投降后，苏联在中国东北一直驻军至***接管该地区，随后将溥仪移交给***，并为自己“圆满完成任务”而自鸣得意。
And in 1945, Korea was also under Japanese control. Guess who took the opportunity to send troops there too. Yep, the Soviet unx.
And in the subsequent peace treaty, the Soviets claimed some of Japan’s smaller islands.
The longer the war against Japan goes on, the more Japanese territory goes to the Soviet unx.
1945年时，朝鲜半岛同样处于日本控制之下。猜猜谁也趁机向那里派遣了军队？没错，就是苏联。
在之后的和平条约中，苏联还侵占了日本的部分小岛。
对日本的战争持续时间越长，苏联侵占的日本领土就会越多。
Well look at that! Hokkaido, or “Soviet Japan” is right off the coast of Russia. It’s incredibly close to Sakhalin Island, which gives the Soviets an even closer staging point. It’s right near Vladivostok, the primary Soviet Pacific naval base.
你看！北海道（或称“苏联日本”）紧邻俄罗斯海岸，与库页岛相距极近——这为苏联提供了一个更近的军事集结点，且该岛就在苏联太平洋主要海军基地符拉迪沃斯托克附近。
Now, the two bombs and the attack by the Soviet unx forced Japan’s hand. Right up until August 9, 1945, the Japanese were pressing the Soviets to mediate a peace between Japan and the United States to avoid an occupation of Japan. The Soviet invasion caught Japan completely off guard and it’s roughly 1 million man army in Manchuria was pretty much completely defenseless. It was also totally useless for a defence of the home islands - there was no navy to get those men back to Japan.
正是这两颗原子弹以及苏联的进攻，迫使日本不得不做出抉择。直到1945年8月9日，日本仍在施压苏联，希望其促成日美之间的和平谈判，以避免日本被占领。而苏联的入侵完全出乎日本意料，其驻扎在中国东北的约100万军队几乎毫无防御能力，且这支部队对日本本土防御而言毫无用处——当时日本已无海军能将这些士兵撤回本土。
So, even with no bombs, Japan is in a pickle. It’s now fighting a two front war with no fuel or ammunition. Although Japanese soldiers were willing to die, when the war got to Okinawa, many of the soldiers refused to put civilian women, children and the elderly at risk, even though they often said they would prefer to die along with the soldiers.
So, if the Japanese are obstinate, the best case scenario is even more of northern Japan goes to the Soviets. They get two occupying forces instead of one.
因此，即便没有原子弹，日本也已陷入困境。当时的日本正陷入双线作战，且燃料和弹药均已耗尽。尽管日本士兵甘愿赴死，但到了冲绳岛战役时，许多士兵拒绝让平民妇女、儿童和老人陷入险境——即便他们常说愿意与士兵一同赴死。
所以，若日本执意顽抗，最好的结果也只是日本北部更多领土被苏联侵占，届时日本将面临两支占领军，而非一支。
Eugene St. Clair Studied History at Southern Illinois University System
尤金·圣克莱尔 曾在南伊利诺伊大学系统研习历史学
It would have been horrible beyond imagination.
Operation Downfall with two components, Operations Coronet and Olympic being the two main components were in the planning stages when Imperial Japan accepted the Potsdam Declaration (the Japanese government has NEVER used the word surrender in referring to the end of the war in the Pacific.)
后果将不堪设想，恐怖至极。
当日本帝国接受《波茨坦公告》时（日本政府在提及太平洋战争结束时，从未使用过“投降”一词），“没落行动”正处于规划阶段——该行动包含两个主要部分，即“王冠行动”和“奥林匹克行动”。
The Japanese were not sending up fighter aircraft in the last month or so of the war, preferring to hoard their aviation gasoline. They had thousands of aircraft, including manned rockets to attack Allied ships, specifically the transports. There might have been even some jet aircraft based upon the German ME262.
There were thousands of speed boats loaded with explosives ready to be sent out to ram Allied warships. In addition there were divers equipped with explosive mines to strike the landing craft as they tried to land their troops.
战争最后一个月左右，日本不再出动战斗机，而是选择囤积航空汽油。他们当时拥有数千架飞机，包括用于攻击盟军船只（尤其是运输舰）的有人驾驶火箭弹，甚至可能还有基于德国ME262战机研发的喷气式飞机。
日本当时还部署了数千艘装满炸药的快艇，随时准备出动撞击盟军战舰；此外，还有配备爆炸水雷的潜水员，计划在盟军登陆艇运送士兵登陆时对其发起攻击。
Civilians including older men and women, children some as young as 10 were to be used in mass attacks equipped with gardening tools or pikes, with metal stakes made from metal scavenged from American bombs and aircraft.
Even after the first atomic weapon, the Japanese were going to issue white sheets to the soldiers and civilians to protect against the flash from the bomb. Clearly madness.
日本计划动员平民参与大规模攻击，包括老年男女以及年仅10岁的儿童，他们的武器是园艺工具、长矛，或是用从美国炸弹和飞机残骸中回收的金属制成的尖桩。
即便在第一颗原子弹爆炸后，日本仍计划向士兵和平民发放白布，声称可抵御原子弹的闪光——这显然是荒谬至极的做法。
There was the possibility of biological or chemical warfare, as they had conducted both in China for years. This is probably slight as several high level officers removed the weapons from the control of subordinates prior to the end of the war. One Army officer clearly forbade its use (especially after the acceptance of the Potsdam Declaration) as it would cause Japan to be the scorn of the international community and cause a fight between microbes and humans that would never end.
日本此前在中国实施了多年的生物战和化学战，因此当时存在其使用这类武器的可能性。但这种可能性或许不大，因为战争结束前，已有多名高级军官将这些武器从下属手中收回。其中一名陆军军官明确禁止使用生化武器（尤其是在接受《波茨坦公告》后），认为这会让日本成为国际社会的公敌，并引发一场永无止境的“微生物与人的战争”。
Truman who had served in World War I and saw the futility of it was also against chemical and biological weapons and forbade its use in the invasion.
It should also be noted that the American embargo of the island had reduced its food stocks to an extremely low level and people were indeed starving to death. It has been estimated that most of Japan would be at starvation levels by December. Now why would starving millions of women and children to death is preferable to the Atomic bombs is beyond my comprehension. The high command and the Emperor would not be starving that is definite.
杜鲁门曾参加过第一次世界大战，亲眼目睹了战争的徒劳无益，他同样反对使用生化武器，并禁止在入侵行动中使用这类武器。
还需注意的是，美国对日本的封锁已使其粮食储备降至极低水平，当时确实有民众在挨饿致死。据估计，到12月时，日本大部分地区将陷入饥荒。我实在无法理解，为何让数百万妇女和儿童饿死，会比投放原子弹更可取——可以肯定的是，日本最高指挥部和天皇绝不会挨饿。
The US had 1 million purple hearts made in anticipation of the invasion.* That is how dire it was supposed to be. More US military personnel would have been killed in taking Japan than in the rest of the war up to that point. It is estimated that there would be 300,000 American deaths alone and 1 million casualties. Estimates were of 1 to 20 million civilian and military deaths.
美国为筹备此次入侵，提前制作了100万枚紫心勋章*。由此可见当时局势的严峻程度。攻占日本所导致的美军阵亡人数，将超过此前战争中所有美军阵亡人数的总和。据估计，仅美军死亡人数就将达到30万，伤亡总数达100万；而日本军民死亡人数预计将在100万至2000万之间。
I can’t even imagine the PTSD that would occur to Allied veterans that had to mow down waves of women and children trying to attack their positions with gardening tools and pikes. Just plain insanity. That is why the atomic weapons as horrific as they were, paled in comparison to the deaths and suffering that would have occurred with an invasion. And if an embargo was used, how many people would have starved? The Atomic weapons and the invasion of Manchuria by the Soviets were critical in the ending of the war.
我甚至无法想象，那些被迫射杀一波又一波手持园艺工具和长矛、试图攻击其阵地的妇女和儿童的盟军老兵，会遭受怎样的创伤后应激障碍（PTSD）——这简直是彻头彻尾的疯狂。正因如此，尽管原子弹的破坏力极为恐怖，但与入侵日本可能造成的死亡和苦难相比，仍相形见绌。而如果仅依靠封锁，又会有多少人饿死？原子弹的投放以及苏联对中国东北的入侵，是促成战争结束的关键因素。
Frank DuncanBS. Chemistry, 20 years an RSO, Radiological training from Homeland Security
弗兰克·邓肯 化学学士学位，担任辐射安全官（RSO）20年，接受过美国国土安全部辐射相关培训
Originally Answered: What would happen if we never nuked Japan?
最初回答：如果我们从未对日本使用核武器，会发生什么？
There was a debate about whether to use the bomb or not. Should they forgo the use of the bomb, and use the alternative: invade. Invasion was estimated to cost up to a million US casualties in dead and wounded. Operation Downfall was planned as two sequential invasions. Operation Olympic which was to capture the island of Kyushu beginning in October 1945, and Operation Coronet the following spring on the island of Honshu.
当时关于是否使用原子弹存在一场争论：是放弃使用原子弹，转而采用另一种方案——登陆入侵？据估计，入侵行动将导致多达100万美军伤亡（阵亡+受伤）。“落日行动”被规划为两次连续的入侵：1945年10月启动“奥林匹克行动”，旨在攻占九州岛；次年春季发起“王冠行动”，进攻本州岛。
Consider the effect such a decision to NOT use the bomb would have had in the United States. How could anyone tell an American mother that the United States let her son be killed because our new weapon was too powerful? Ask any mother if she felt that it was OK for her child to die because we were afraid to use this new weapon. Tell any mother that we let her son be killed because we didn’t want to be too mean to the Japanese.
试想一下，若决定不使用原子弹，这会对美国产生何种影响？谁能去告诉一位美国母亲，她的儿子牺牲是因为我们的新武器威力太强？问问任何一位母亲，她是否能接受自己的孩子因我们不敢使用这种新武器而丧生？告诉任何一位母亲，我们让她的儿子牺牲是因为不想对日本人过于“刻薄”？
The spirit of the time was much more than determined to eliminate the Japanese Empire. The Japanese had made a sneak attack on Pearl Harbor while in the middle of peace talks. They were duplicitous, brutal animals that were as cruel as Vlad the Impaler. They had shown no mercy whatsoever in their conquests and so deserved none. On Okinawa, the Japanese did not take a single American prisoner. They killed every single American they captured. Every last one. The attitude of the time was that the only good Jap was a dead Jap.
当时的社会氛围远不止是决心摧毁日本帝国。日本在和平谈判期间对珍珠港发动了偷袭，他们是像穿刺公弗拉德（中世纪罗马尼亚暴君，以残忍著称）一样狡诈、残暴的暴徒。在征服过程中，他们毫无怜悯之心，因此也不配得到任何宽恕。冲绳岛战役中，日军未抓获任何一名美国战俘，他们将捕获的每一个美国人都杀害了，一个不留。当时的普遍态度是：“死日本人才是好日本人”。
The modern day revisionists and apologists completely ignore several important things about dropping the bombs. Up to the moment of Pearl Harbor, the population of the United States was very isolationist. We didn’t want to get involved in another Great War. The attack on Pearl Harbor changed that in a single day. By 1945, American people were sick and tired of a war that had been thrust on them. We had lost hundreds of thousands in dead and wounded fighting a war we did not start or want. We had spent treasure to supply the world with the weapons of war – again- a war we didn’t start or want.
现代修正主义者和辩护者完全忽视了与投放原子弹相关的几个关键事实。珍珠港事件发生前，美国民众普遍奉行孤立主义，不愿卷入另一场世界大战。但珍珠港的袭击在一天之内改变了这一切。到1945年，美国民众已对这场强加于身的战争感到厌倦至极——我们在这场非由我们发起、也非我们所愿的战争中付出了数十万伤亡的代价，还耗费巨资为世界提供战争武器，而这同样是一场我们不愿参与、未曾挑起的战争。
The American people were united in their hatred of the Japanese. The Japanese had made an unprovoked attack without a declaration of war. A sneak attack killing thousands of Americans while we were still at peace. Now, even when obviously defeated, they would not surrender. They would commit suicide before surrendering. Their concept of surrender was such that it would dishonor themselves, their families and far worse, their ancestors. When they said, ”Death before dishonor,” they really meant it. The Japanese mindset was so fundamentally different that we in the West simply could not understand why they wouldn't surrender when they were defeated. Until the Japanese realized it was time to quit, the war would continue.
美国民众对日本的仇恨空前一致：日本在未宣战的情况下发动无端攻击，在两国仍处于和平状态时，以偷袭方式杀害了数千名美国人。而即便已明显战败，日本仍拒绝投降，宁愿自杀也不愿屈服。在他们的观念中，投降会玷污自己、家族的荣誉，更严重的是会玷污祖先的名誉。当他们说“宁死不屈”时，是发自内心的坚定信念。日本人的思维方式与西方人存在本质差异，我们根本无法理解为何他们在战败后仍不愿投降——除非日本主动意识到该停止战争，否则战事将持续不断。
It might be noted that General “Stormin’ Norman” Schwartzkopf wrote a paper when he was a cadet that in 1945 the Quartermaster Corps of the Army ordered 750,000 Purple Hearts prior to the invasion because, based on the casualties so far in the Pacific Theater, that is how many US casualties they expected during the invasions. Modern day revisionists should consider what the people on scene, at that time and place expected.
值得一提的是，“诺曼风暴”施瓦茨科普夫将军在军校就读期间曾撰写过一篇论文，其中提到1945年，美国陆军军需兵部队在计划入侵日本前订购了75万枚紫心勋章——基于太平洋战场此前的伤亡情况，这正是他们预计入侵行动中会产生的美军伤亡人数。现代修正主义者应当思考，当时身处那个时代、那个环境的人们是如何预判局势的。
The Japanese had correctly identified the beaches where the Americans would have to invade. Our photoreconnaissance clearly showed that they were not planning to surrender, but to fight to the bitter end and they had thousands of cannon and machineguns aimed at them. The fire bombings of the cities had killed far more people than the atomic bombs did, but the atomic bombs had become a change in quantity that was a change in quality. Even at the very end, it was only the direct intervention of the Emperor who only barely prevailed over the military who wanted to fight on.
日本已准确预判到美军的登陆海滩位置。我们的航空侦察清晰显示，他们毫无投降之意，而是要战斗到最后一刻，数千门大炮和机枪已瞄准了这些登陆点。此前对日本城市的燃烧弹轰炸造成的死亡人数远超过原子弹，但原子弹带来的伤亡规模变化，实则引发了质的改变。即便到了战争最后时刻，也是在天皇直接干预下，才勉强压制住了主张继续作战的军方势力。
There were also other reasons to end the war as quickly as possible. The Japanese were running out of food and we knew that orders had gone out to kill all prisoners of war. It was certain that when we started to invade the home islands, all our prisoners would be massacred. In addition, there were hundreds of thousands of Japanese troops scattered throughout Asia as garrison troops. They had to be ordered to surrender or they could have created a hundred Nanking's when the invasion took place. So there was more than simply defeating the Japanese Army, there had to be a direction of surrender, or at least to stop fighting.
此外，还有其他必须尽快结束战争的原因。日本当时已濒临粮食枯竭，而我们得知，日军已下达处决所有战俘的命令——一旦我们开始入侵日本本土，所有在日军手中的盟军战俘都将遭到屠杀。同时，还有数十万日军作为驻军分散在亚洲各地，必须有明确的投降命令传达给他们，否则在入侵行动开始后，他们可能会制造出上百个“南京大屠杀”式的惨案。因此，我们的目标不仅仅是击败日本军队，更需要让他们明确投降方向，至少停止抵抗。
The terrible possibility of an American ” Lost Generation” like that of England and France must have been one of the reasons why President Truman sanctioned the use of the bombs. He was a combat proven officer in WWI and would rather drop the bombs than lose the lives of his troops.
杜鲁门总统批准使用原子弹，原因之一必定是担心美国会像英国和法国那样，出现“迷惘的一代”——这一后果不堪设想。他曾是一战中经过实战检验的军官，宁愿投放原子弹，也不愿让自己的士兵牺牲。
Their use saved not just many, many American lives, it also saved Japanese lives. President Truman had just two alternatives on his desk: Invade, or use the bomb. End of list. Invade and lose up to a million dead or wounded, and up to 20,000,000 Japanese dead, or drop the bombs.
使用原子弹不仅拯救了无数美国人的生命，也拯救了日本民众的生命。杜鲁门总统当时面前只有两个选择：要么入侵，要么使用原子弹，别无其他。入侵将导致多达100万美军伤亡、2000万日本民众死亡，而投放原子弹则能避免这一结局。
So, with the information at hand, what would have happened? There would have been a political explosion in the US when people found out that we could have saved up to a million US casualties by dropping the bombs, and didn’t. The Japanese population would have been decimated. Russia would have occupied Hokkaido probably even till today. All of our prisoners of war would have been massacred. There would have been massacres of hundreds of thousands, if not millions more Chinese.
Those are the results of NOT dropping the bombs. And that is why they were dropped.
那么，结合当时掌握的信息，若不投放原子弹会发生什么？当美国民众发现，我们本可以通过投放原子弹拯救多达100万美军的生命，却选择了放弃时，国内必将爆发政治动荡；日本民众将遭遇毁灭性打击；俄罗斯很可能会占领北海道，甚至持续至今；所有盟军战俘都将被屠杀；还会有数十万乃至数百万中国人惨遭日军屠戮。
这些便是不投放原子弹的后果——这也是我们最终决定投放原子弹的原因。
弗兰克·邓肯 二战相关深入研究者
Originally Answered: What if America chose not to drop atomic bombs in Japan?
The death toll for both the Japanese and Americans would have been far, far higher.
最初回答：若美国当时未向日本投放原子弹，会发生什么？
无论对日本人还是美国人而言，死亡人数都会比实际情况多得多。
Truman had two options open to him: Drop the atomic bombs, or invade. There was a third option considered and that was just blockade. But in June, 1945, after Germany had surrendered, the Reich Minister of Armaments and War Production Albert_Speer, was debriefed and it was found that the massive bombing campaign against Germany hadn’t done nearly the damage thought and that production had increased up until Germany was being occupied. It was reasoned that if Germany could do it, so could Japan. It had also been proposed to drop a bomb on an uninhabited island as a demonstration. This was considered and rejected for several reasons. First, the Japanese had demonstrated that regardless of the odds, the Japanese military didn’t surrender. This had been proved in hundreds of battles. Then again, dropping a big flashbulb wasn’t going to impress an army like that. In addition, this was one of the most expensive weapons ever developed, second only to the B-29, and not using it that would cost even one American life was totally unacceptable.
杜鲁门当时有两个选择：投放原子弹，或是发动登陆入侵。当时还考虑过第三种方案，即单纯实施封锁。但1945年6月德国投降后，对纳粹德国军备与战时生产部长阿尔贝特·施佩尔的讯问显示，此前对德国发起的大规模轰炸造成的破坏远未达到预期，而且直到德国被占领前，其军工生产仍在增长。由此可推断，既然德国能做到这一点，日本也同样可以。当时还有人提议在无人岛屿投放原子弹，以此作为威慑展示。该提议虽被讨论，但最终因多种原因遭否决。首先，日本此前的表现已表明，无论战局多么不利，日本军方都不会投降，这一点在数百场战役中都得到了证实。再者，这种“放个大烟花”的做法根本无法震慑那样一支军队。此外，原子弹是当时研发成本最高的武器之一，成本仅次于B-29轰炸机，若为不使用它而导致哪怕一名美国人丧生，都是完全无法接受的。
The determination of the Japanese to literally fight to the last man had been demonstrated on Tarawa, Saipan, Iwo Jima, Okinawa and a hundred other battles. It was anticipated that the invasion of Japan, Operation_Downfall, would involve up to a million US casualties and incidentally wipe out the Japanese population. Operation Downfall was the combination of Olympic, the invasion of Kyushu scheduled for November 1, 1945, and Coronet, the invasion of Honshu scheduled for March 1, 1946. The Japanese estimates were that 20 million Japanese would die. Diplomatic and military decrypts had shown that the garrison of Kyushu had increased from 150,000 men to 545,000 while all of Japan now had a garrison of over 2,000,000.
日本人血战到底、战至最后一人的决心，在塔拉瓦、塞班岛、硫磺岛、冲绳岛以及其他上百场战役中都有所体现。当时预计，对日本本土发起的“没落行动”（登陆入侵）将导致多达100万美军伤亡，同时还会间接造成日本民众大量死亡。“没落行动”由两部分组成：计划于1945年11月1日发起的“奥林匹克行动”（进攻九州岛），以及计划于1946年3月1日发起的“王冠行动”（进攻本州岛）。日本方面估计，届时将有2000万日本人丧生。外交与军事解密信息显示，九州岛的驻军已从15万人增至54.5万人，而当时整个日本的驻军人数已超过200万。
In addition to the American plans for an invasion, the British were also planning an invasion of their own with Operation_Zipper to capture part of Malaya, and Operation_Mailfist, for the reoccupation of Singapore. These were to take place shortly after the invasion by the American Operation Downfall but were aborted by the surrender of Japan. The British were very concerned about the possibility of continued Japanese resistance that would have resulted in the deaths of all of the prisoners of war held in the prison camps, along with the many civilians interned since the outbreak of the war.
除美国的登陆入侵计划外，英国也在制定自己的入侵计划：“拉链行动”旨在夺取马来亚部分地区，“重拳行动”则是为了重新占领新加坡。这些行动原计划在美国“没落行动”发起后不久实施，但因日本投降而中止。英国当时非常担心日本会继续抵抗，因为这可能导致集中营中所有战俘以及自战争爆发以来被关押的众多平民全部丧生。
The spring and summer of 1945 saw the Japanese planning and preparing for the Ketsu-Go, or the Decisive Battle for the Homeland。All school classes were cancelled which freed up more than 13,000,000 young people for the coming battle. By the summer of 1945, these people were divided into three types: Special guard Forces composed of older men who were assigned to build fortifications and transport supplies. The Independent Companies who were mobilized reservists who were building camouflaged landing strips for kamikaze’s and were trained for combat. And then there were the Civilian Volunteer Corps formed in June 1945, who were everyone else above the age of 15 and who were set to make munitions, food, and making last ditch weapons. The West was fighting against an enemy where even the women and children were being trained and armed with sharpened bamboo poles to kill the Americans. They were instructed to, “always thrust tall Yankees in their belly.” In short, everyone above the age of 15, male or female, was going to be a soldier to defend the Homeland. Around 2 million civilians were part of the Patriotic Citizens Fighting Corps that were trained for combat even if it was only with sharpened bamboo spears. By August, 1945, the Japanese had accumulated 5,350 airplanes, over 1,000,000 gallons of gasoline and 6,200 fast suicide boats in preparation for the forthcoming American invasion.
1945年春夏两季，日本正在策划并准备“最后作战”，即“本土决战”。当时日本所有学校停课，这使得超过1300万名年轻人可投入即将到来的战斗。到1945年夏季，这些人员被分为三类：一是由年长男性组成的特种警卫部队，负责修建防御工事和运输物资；二是独立连队，成员为动员起来的预备役人员，他们要为神风特攻队修建伪装跑道，同时接受战斗训练；三是1945年6月组建的民间志愿队，成员涵盖所有15岁以上的其他人群，负责制造弹药、粮食以及绝境作战用的武器。西方盟国当时面对的敌人，甚至连妇女和儿童都接受了训练，他们手持削尖的竹竿，准备杀死美国人，还被教导要“朝着高个子 Yankees（指美国人）的肚子捅”。简而言之，所有15岁以上的人，无论男女，都要成为士兵保卫本土。约200万平民加入了“爱国市民战斗队”，即便只能使用削尖的竹矛，他们也接受了战斗训练。到1945年8月，日本已囤积了5350架飞机、超过100万加仑汽油以及6200艘高速自杀式快艇，为即将到来的美军入侵做准备。
These are the people who simply didn’t surrender. They literally jump off of cliffs to their death before surrender. Look at the statistics that faced the Americans. In 1943, at Buna, New Guinea, out of 14,000 Japanese troops, not one surrendered. In 1943, on Kiska, Alaska, out of 2,500 troops, there were 28 prisoners, some wounded. On Tarawa, out of 3,600 troops, 17 surrendered. On Saipan, there were 32,000 troops, and there were 921 prisoners. On Peleliu, out of 10,900 Japanese soldiers, 19 were captured, along with 183 laborers. On Iwo Jima, there were 21,000 troops, and 216 surrendered. In the Philippines, 56,263 Japanese soldiers were killed, but only 389 surrendered. Just in the battle for Manila, 1,000 US soldiers died, but the entire garrison of 17,000 Japanese soldiers fought and died to the very last man-and over 100,000 civilians were massacred. On Okinawa, graves registration buried 110,701 dead and 7,401 were captured. Simply put, these are not an enemy you can scare. They didn’t scare. They looked Death in the face up close and personal, face-to-face, eyeball-to-eyeball, and didn’t blx. With very, very few exceptions, they simply wouldn’t surrender.
这些人就是绝不投降的典型。他们宁愿跳崖自尽，也不愿投降。看看美军当时面临的统计数据便知：1943年，新几内亚布纳战役中，1.4万名日军无一人投降；1943年，阿拉斯加基斯卡岛战役中，2500名日军仅产生28名战俘，其中部分还是伤员；塔拉瓦战役中，3600名日军仅17人投降；塞班岛战役中，3.2万名日军产生921名战俘；佩莱利乌岛战役中，1.09万名日军仅19人被俘，另有183名劳工被俘；硫磺岛战役中，2.1万名日军仅216人投降；在菲律宾战场，5.6263万名日军被击毙，仅389人投降；仅在马尼拉战役中，就有1000名美军士兵阵亡，而驻守的1.7万名日军全部战斗至最后一人，无一生还，同时还有超过10万名平民惨遭屠杀；冲绳岛战役中，根据墓地登记记录，共有11.0701万名日军被掩埋（即阵亡），仅7401人被俘。简而言之，这不是一支可以用威慑吓退的敌人。他们毫不畏惧，即便与死亡近距离面对面、眼神对峙，也丝毫没有退缩。除极少数例外情况，他们就是绝不投降。
The loss ratio between American and Japanese losses had become alarming. Six out of ten US casualties in the Pacific took place in the last 11 months of the war. In Luzon, in the Philippines, the Americans had lost 31,000 casualties and the Japanese 156,000 or a ratio of about 1 American to 5 Japanese. On Iwo Jima, the loss ratio had fallen to 1 American to 1.25 Japanese. As the battle on Okinawa raged, the ratio was 1 American casualty for 1.6 Japanese losses. In addition to the casualties of soldiers, the Americans had also lost 12 destroyers, 15 amphibious ships and 9 others with 386 damaged in addition to over 760 aircraft and 225 tanks. It was clear that any battle on Japanese soil would result in even more fanatical resistance than the Americans had met so far.
美日双方的伤亡比例已变得令人担忧。太平洋战场上，美军10例伤亡中有6例发生在战争的最后11个月。在菲律宾吕宋岛战役中，美军伤亡3.1万人，日军伤亡15.6万人，美日伤亡比约为1:5；硫磺岛战役中，这一比例降至1:1.25；冲绳岛战役激战期间，美日伤亡比为1:1.6。除士兵伤亡外，美军还损失了12艘驱逐舰、15艘两栖舰艇以及9艘其他类型船只，另有386艘船只受损，同时损失的还有760多架飞机和225辆坦克。显然，若在日本本土作战，美军遭遇的抵抗将比此前任何时候都更为狂热。
The decision to use the atomic bombs is more clearly shown by this excerpt from Major General Charles Sweeny’s book The War’s End:
查尔斯·斯威尼少将在其著作《战争的终结》中的这段摘录，更清晰地说明了使用原子弹这一决定的背景：
“The only facts and numbers that are relevant to a discussion of Truman’s decision, therefore, are those facts and numbers the president had in front of him in July 1945. The staggering casualties at Iwo Jima and Okinawa were not projections, they were memorialized by rows of white crosses and hospital wards filled with broken bodies. In each case, Japanese military forces fought to the death, as they had done everywhere else. The casualty ratio as the United States drew closer to Japan was one to two.
“因此，在讨论杜鲁门的这一决定时，唯一相关的事实与数据，是1945年7月呈现在总统面前的那些事实与数据。硫磺岛和冲绳岛战役中惊人的伤亡数字并非预测，而是由一排排白色十字架（象征阵亡士兵）和满是伤残士兵的医院病房所印证的事实。在这两场战役中，日本军队都战斗至最后一刻，正如他们在其他所有战场的表现一样。随着美军逐步逼近日本本土，美日伤亡比已降至1:2。
Based upon the realities, Truman’s military advisers, in a White House meeting on June 18, 1945, predicted that 30 to 35 percent of the 770,000-man invasion force could reasonably be expected to be killed or wounded during just the first thirty days of the invasion of Kyushu. Translation 231,000 to 269,000 dead or wounded Americans in the first thirty days of combat. It was estimated that it would take a hundred and twenty days to secure and occupy the entire island. By the end of that four-month period, Americans casualties would realistically reach around 395,000. And over one million of our troops still awaited the second prong of the invasion. In March 1946 they would wade ashore near Tokyo to take Honshu.
基于这些现实情况，杜鲁门的军事顾问们在1945年6月18日的白宫会议上预测，在进攻九州岛的最初30天内，77万人的入侵部队中，预计有30%至35%的人可能伤亡。换算成具体数字就是：战斗最初30天内，美军伤亡人数将达到23.1万至26.9万人。当时估计，要完全控制并占领整个九州岛需要120天。到这四个月结束时，美军实际伤亡人数有望达到约39.5万人。此外，还有超过100万美军士兵在等待入侵行动的第二阶段——1946年3月，他们将在东京附近登陆，进攻本州岛。
These estimates assumed, of course, that all would go according to plan. Yet Okinawa had expected to fall in two weeks; instead the battle had dragged into eighty-two days, and even then it took several more weeks after that to secure the island.”
当然，这些估计的前提是一切都按计划进行。但此前冲绳岛战役原本预计两周内就能结束，结果却拖了82天，即便如此，在战役结束后又花了好几周时间才完全控制该岛。”
Consider the effect such a decision NOT to use the atomic bombs would have had in the United States. How could anyone tell an American mother that the United States let her son be killed because bombing was too cruel? Ask any mother if she felt that it was OK for her child to die because we were reluctant to kill the enemy. Tell any mother that we let her son be killed because we didn’t want to be too cruel to the Japanese.
试想一下，若当时决定不使用原子弹，这会对美国产生何种影响？谁能去告诉一位美国母亲，她的儿子牺牲是因为美国认为轰炸过于残忍？问问任何一位母亲，她是否能接受自己的孩子因我们不愿杀害敌人而丧生？告诉任何一位母亲，我们让她的儿子牺牲是因为不想对日本人过于残忍？
The spirit of the time was much more than determined to eliminate the Japanese Empire. The Japanese had made a sneak attack on Pearl Harbor while in the middle of peace talks. They were duplicitous, brutal animals that were as cruel as Vlad the Impaler. They had shown no mercy whatsoever in their conquests and so deserved none. They had killed thousands at Pearl Harbor, killed thousands more in the Bataan Death march, and on Okinawa, the Japanese did not take a single American prisoner. They killed every single American they captured. Every last one. The attitude of the American people at that time was that the only good Jap was a dead Jap.
当时的社会氛围远不止是决心摧毁日本帝国那么简单。日本在和平谈判期间对珍珠港发动了偷袭，他们是像穿刺公弗拉德一样残忍、狡诈的暴徒。在征服过程中，他们毫无怜悯之心，因此也不配得到任何怜悯。他们在珍珠港杀害了数千人，在巴丹死亡行军中又杀害了数千人，而在冲绳岛战役中，日军没有抓获任何一名美国战俘，他们将捕获的每一个美国人都杀害了，一个不留。当时美国民众的态度是：“死了的日本人才是好日本人”。
The modern day revisionists and apologists completely ignore several important considerations about the bombing campaign. Up to the moment of Pearl Harbor, the population of the United States was very isolationist. The general opinion was “Let those Europeans stew in their own juices.” We didn’t want to get involved in another Great War. The attack on Pearl Harbor changed that in a single day. By 1945, we had lost hundreds of thousands in dead and wounded fighting a war we did not start or want. We had spent treasure to supply the world with the weapons of war – again - a war we didn’t start or want. The American people were united in their hatred of the Japanese. The Japanese had made an unprovoked attack without a declaration of war. A sneak attack killing thousands of Americans while we were still at peace.
现代修正主义者和辩护者完全忽视了与轰炸行动相关的几个重要因素。在珍珠港事件发生前，美国民众普遍奉行孤立主义，主流观点是“让欧洲人自食其果”，我们不愿卷入另一场世界大战。但珍珠港的袭击在一天之内改变了这一切。到1945年，我们在这场并非由我们发起、也非我们所愿的战争中，已付出了数十万伤亡的代价，还耗费巨资为世界提供战争武器——同样，这是一场我们不愿参与、也未曾挑起的战争。美国民众对日本的仇恨空前一致，因为日本在未宣战的情况下发动了无端攻击，在两国仍处于和平状态时，以偷袭方式杀害了数千名美国人。
The US military knew that Japan was militarily defeated by 1943, and by1944 had no chance for winning the war. Now, even when obviously defeated, they would not surrender. They would commit suicide before surrendering. Their concept of surrender was such that it would dishonor themselves, their families and far worse, their ancestors. When they said, ”Death before dishonor,” they really meant it in a very literal sense. The Japanese mindset was so fundamentally different that we in the West simply could not understand why they wouldn't surrender when they were defeated. Until the Japanese realized it was time to surrender, the war would continue.
美国军方早在1943年就知道日本在军事上已遭重创，到1944年时，日本已毫无获胜可能。然而，即便已明显战败，他们仍拒绝投降，宁愿自杀也不愿屈服。在他们的观念中，投降会玷污自己、家族的荣誉，更严重的是，会玷污祖先的名誉。当他们说“宁死不屈”时，是完全字面意义上的坚定信念。日本人的思维方式与我们西方人截然不同，我们根本无法理解为何他们在战败后仍不愿投降。除非日本主动意识到该投降了，否则战争将持续下去。
It might be noted that General “Stormin’ Norman” Schwartzkopf wrote a paper when he was a cadet that in 1945 the Quartermaster Corps of the Army ordered 750,000 Purple Hearts prior to the invasion because, based on the casualties so far in the Pacific Theater, that is how many US casualties they expected during the invasions. Modern day revisionists should consider what the people on scene, at that time and place expected.
值得一提的是，“诺曼风暴”施瓦茨科普夫将军在军校就读期间曾撰写过一篇论文，其中提到1945年，美国陆军军需兵部队在计划入侵日本前订购了75万枚紫心勋章——基于太平洋战场此前的伤亡情况，这正是他们预计入侵行动中会产生的美军伤亡人数。现代修正主义者应当思考，当时身处那个时代、那个环境的人们是如何预判局势的。
The Japanese had correctly identified the beaches where the Americans would have to invade their islands. The Japanese had planned a final stand with the Ketsugo Operation that was being prepared by a stream of reinforcements from the other islands. Over 5000 aircraft and a million gallons of fuel had been accumulated in secret caves ready to be launched against the expected invasion fleet. Our photoreconnaissance clearly showed that they were not planning to surrender, but to fight to the bitter end. They had thousands of cannon and machine guns aimed at those beaches.
日本已准确预判到美军将登陆的海滩位置，并计划通过“决号作战”进行最后抵抗——他们不断从其他岛屿调派援军，积极备战。日军在秘密洞穴中囤积了超过5000架飞机和100万加仑汽油，随时准备对抗预期中的入侵舰队。我们的航空侦察清晰显示，他们毫无投降之意，而是要战斗到最后一刻，数千门大炮和机枪已瞄准了那些登陆海滩。
The fire bombings of the cities had killed far more people than the atomic bombs did, but the atomic bombs had become a change in quantity that was a change in quality. Even at the very end, it was only the direct intervention of the Emperor who only just barely prevailed over the military who wanted to fight on.
此前对日本城市的燃烧弹轰炸造成的死亡人数远超过原子弹，但原子弹带来的伤亡规模变化，实则引发了质的改变。即便到了战争最后时刻，也是在天皇直接干预下，才勉强压制住了主张继续作战的军方势力。
There were also other reasons to end the war as quickly as possible. The Japanese were running out of food and we knew that orders had gone out to kill all prisoners of war. The Japanese held 168,000 prisoners of war! In fact, in preparation for that event, the Japanese had forced the POWs to dig trenches for their own graves. It was certain that when we started to invade the home islands, all the prisoners in Japanese hands would be massacred.
此外，还有其他必须尽快结束战争的原因。日本当时已濒临粮食枯竭，而我们得知，日军已下达处决所有战俘的命令——当时日本关押着16.8万名战俘！事实上，为执行这一命令，日军已强迫战俘挖掘用于掩埋自己的壕沟。可以肯定的是，一旦我们开始入侵日本本土，所有在日军手中的战俘都将遭到屠杀。
Besides the prisoners of war, there were also tens of thousands of civilian internees who would undoubtedly be slaughtered. In addition, there were hundreds of thousands of Japanese troops scattered throughout Asia as garrison troops. They had to be ordered to surrender or they could have created a hundred Nanking's when the invasion took place. So there was more than simply defeating the Japanese Army, there had to be a direction of surrender, or at least to stop fighting.
除战俘外，还有数万平民被关押，他们无疑也会遭到屠杀。此外，还有数十万日军作为驻军分散在亚洲各地，必须有明确的投降命令传达给他们，否则在入侵行动开始后，他们可能会制造出上百个“南京大屠杀”式的惨案。因此，我们的目标不仅仅是击败日本军队，更需要让他们明确投降方向，至少停止抵抗。
The terrible possibility of an American” Lost Generation” like that of England and France must have been one of the reasons why President Truman sanctioned the use of the atomic bombs. He was a combat proven officer in WWI and would rather drop the bombs than lose the lives of his troops.
杜鲁门总统批准使用原子弹，原因之一必定是担心美国会像英国和法国那样，出现“迷惘的一代”——这一后果不堪设想。他曾是一战中经过实战检验的军官，宁愿投放原子弹，也不愿让自己的士兵牺牲。
Mitsuo Fuchida, the pilot who guided the first wave of Japanese planes in the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, met Paul Tibbets, the pilot of the Enola Gay, who had dropped the bomb on Hiroshima. He told Paul, “You did the right thing. You know the Japanese attitude of that time, how fanatic they were. They’d die for the Emperor. Every man woman and child would resist the invasion with sticks and stones if necessary.”
曾率领第一波日军飞机偷袭珍珠港的飞行员渊田美津雄，后来与驾驶“埃诺拉·盖伊”号轰炸机在广岛投下原子弹的保罗·蒂贝茨会面。他对保罗说：“你做得对。你了解当时日本人的态度，他们是多么狂热，愿意为天皇献出生命。必要时，每一个男人、女人和孩子都会拿起棍棒和石头抵抗入侵。”
The Japanese have a saying that sometimes the greatest mercy is to show no mercy. We showed no mercy and saved millions of lives!
日本人有句谚语：有时最大的仁慈就是毫不留情。我们当时的“毫不留情”，拯救了数百万人的生命！
Steven Haddock
LL.B. degree, 25 years in litigation, administrative law, collections, bankruptcy and professional regulation
史蒂文·哈多克 法学学士学位，拥有25年诉讼、行政法、债务催收、破产及职业监管领域从业经验
Originally Answered: What would happen if the US didn't drop the atomic bomb on Japan?
最初回答：若美国未向日本投放原子弹，会发生什么？
I am often astonished that people miss the obvious.
And the obvious here… is the Soviet unx.
我常常感到惊讶，人们竟然忽略了一个显而易见的关键点。
而这个关键点……就是苏联。
It isn’t discussed much because the war did end in August 1945, but one of the things that Truman considered when dropping the bomb was the Soviet commitment to attacking Japan. The Americans knew Soviet intervention was coming, and when. Stalin wanted a cut of Japan and the Americans knew that.
这一点很少被提及，因为战争确实在1945年8月结束了，但杜鲁门决定投放原子弹时，考量因素之一便是苏联承诺进攻日本的事宜。美国人事先知晓苏联即将介入，也清楚介入的时间点——斯大林想要在日本分一杯羹，这一点美国人心知肚明。
The same day the second bomb dropped, the Soviet unx attacked Japanese forces in Manchuria. As part of that, they captured the Manchurian emperor Henry Pu Yi, and hooked up with Chinese communists in Northeast China, further destabilizing China’s internal struggles. After the Japanese surrender, Russia stayed in Manchuria until the Chinese communist takeover, handed over Pu Yi to the communists, and patted themselves on the back for a job well done.
第二颗原子弹投放的当天，苏联便对驻扎在中国东北的日军发动了进攻。在此过程中，他们俘获了伪满洲国皇帝溥仪，并与中国东北地区的***取得联系，进一步加剧了中国内部斗争的动荡局势。日本投降后，苏联在中国东北一直驻军至***接管该地区，随后将溥仪移交给***，并为自己“圆满完成任务”而自鸣得意。
And in 1945, Korea was also under Japanese control. Guess who took the opportunity to send troops there too. Yep, the Soviet unx.
And in the subsequent peace treaty, the Soviets claimed some of Japan’s smaller islands.
The longer the war against Japan goes on, the more Japanese territory goes to the Soviet unx.
1945年时，朝鲜半岛同样处于日本控制之下。猜猜谁也趁机向那里派遣了军队？没错，就是苏联。
在之后的和平条约中，苏联还侵占了日本的部分小岛。
对日本的战争持续时间越长，苏联侵占的日本领土就会越多。
Well look at that! Hokkaido, or “Soviet Japan” is right off the coast of Russia. It’s incredibly close to Sakhalin Island, which gives the Soviets an even closer staging point. It’s right near Vladivostok, the primary Soviet Pacific naval base.
你看！北海道（或称“苏联日本”）紧邻俄罗斯海岸，与库页岛相距极近——这为苏联提供了一个更近的军事集结点，且该岛就在苏联太平洋主要海军基地符拉迪沃斯托克附近。
Now, the two bombs and the attack by the Soviet unx forced Japan’s hand. Right up until August 9, 1945, the Japanese were pressing the Soviets to mediate a peace between Japan and the United States to avoid an occupation of Japan. The Soviet invasion caught Japan completely off guard and it’s roughly 1 million man army in Manchuria was pretty much completely defenseless. It was also totally useless for a defence of the home islands - there was no navy to get those men back to Japan.
正是这两颗原子弹以及苏联的进攻，迫使日本不得不做出抉择。直到1945年8月9日，日本仍在施压苏联，希望其促成日美之间的和平谈判，以避免日本被占领。而苏联的入侵完全出乎日本意料，其驻扎在中国东北的约100万军队几乎毫无防御能力，且这支部队对日本本土防御而言毫无用处——当时日本已无海军能将这些士兵撤回本土。
So, even with no bombs, Japan is in a pickle. It’s now fighting a two front war with no fuel or ammunition. Although Japanese soldiers were willing to die, when the war got to Okinawa, many of the soldiers refused to put civilian women, children and the elderly at risk, even though they often said they would prefer to die along with the soldiers.
So, if the Japanese are obstinate, the best case scenario is even more of northern Japan goes to the Soviets. They get two occupying forces instead of one.
因此，即便没有原子弹，日本也已陷入困境。当时的日本正陷入双线作战，且燃料和弹药均已耗尽。尽管日本士兵甘愿赴死，但到了冲绳岛战役时，许多士兵拒绝让平民妇女、儿童和老人陷入险境——即便他们常说愿意与士兵一同赴死。
所以，若日本执意顽抗，最好的结果也只是日本北部更多领土被苏联侵占，届时日本将面临两支占领军，而非一支。
Eugene St. Clair Studied History at Southern Illinois University System
尤金·圣克莱尔 曾在南伊利诺伊大学系统研习历史学
It would have been horrible beyond imagination.
Operation Downfall with two components, Operations Coronet and Olympic being the two main components were in the planning stages when Imperial Japan accepted the Potsdam Declaration (the Japanese government has NEVER used the word surrender in referring to the end of the war in the Pacific.)
后果将不堪设想，恐怖至极。
当日本帝国接受《波茨坦公告》时（日本政府在提及太平洋战争结束时，从未使用过“投降”一词），“没落行动”正处于规划阶段——该行动包含两个主要部分，即“王冠行动”和“奥林匹克行动”。
The Japanese were not sending up fighter aircraft in the last month or so of the war, preferring to hoard their aviation gasoline. They had thousands of aircraft, including manned rockets to attack Allied ships, specifically the transports. There might have been even some jet aircraft based upon the German ME262.
There were thousands of speed boats loaded with explosives ready to be sent out to ram Allied warships. In addition there were divers equipped with explosive mines to strike the landing craft as they tried to land their troops.
战争最后一个月左右，日本不再出动战斗机，而是选择囤积航空汽油。他们当时拥有数千架飞机，包括用于攻击盟军船只（尤其是运输舰）的有人驾驶火箭弹，甚至可能还有基于德国ME262战机研发的喷气式飞机。
日本当时还部署了数千艘装满炸药的快艇，随时准备出动撞击盟军战舰；此外，还有配备爆炸水雷的潜水员，计划在盟军登陆艇运送士兵登陆时对其发起攻击。
Civilians including older men and women, children some as young as 10 were to be used in mass attacks equipped with gardening tools or pikes, with metal stakes made from metal scavenged from American bombs and aircraft.
Even after the first atomic weapon, the Japanese were going to issue white sheets to the soldiers and civilians to protect against the flash from the bomb. Clearly madness.
日本计划动员平民参与大规模攻击，包括老年男女以及年仅10岁的儿童，他们的武器是园艺工具、长矛，或是用从美国炸弹和飞机残骸中回收的金属制成的尖桩。
即便在第一颗原子弹爆炸后，日本仍计划向士兵和平民发放白布，声称可抵御原子弹的闪光——这显然是荒谬至极的做法。
There was the possibility of biological or chemical warfare, as they had conducted both in China for years. This is probably slight as several high level officers removed the weapons from the control of subordinates prior to the end of the war. One Army officer clearly forbade its use (especially after the acceptance of the Potsdam Declaration) as it would cause Japan to be the scorn of the international community and cause a fight between microbes and humans that would never end.
日本此前在中国实施了多年的生物战和化学战，因此当时存在其使用这类武器的可能性。但这种可能性或许不大，因为战争结束前，已有多名高级军官将这些武器从下属手中收回。其中一名陆军军官明确禁止使用生化武器（尤其是在接受《波茨坦公告》后），认为这会让日本成为国际社会的公敌，并引发一场永无止境的“微生物与人的战争”。
Truman who had served in World War I and saw the futility of it was also against chemical and biological weapons and forbade its use in the invasion.
It should also be noted that the American embargo of the island had reduced its food stocks to an extremely low level and people were indeed starving to death. It has been estimated that most of Japan would be at starvation levels by December. Now why would starving millions of women and children to death is preferable to the Atomic bombs is beyond my comprehension. The high command and the Emperor would not be starving that is definite.
杜鲁门曾参加过第一次世界大战，亲眼目睹了战争的徒劳无益，他同样反对使用生化武器，并禁止在入侵行动中使用这类武器。
还需注意的是，美国对日本的封锁已使其粮食储备降至极低水平，当时确实有民众在挨饿致死。据估计，到12月时，日本大部分地区将陷入饥荒。我实在无法理解，为何让数百万妇女和儿童饿死，会比投放原子弹更可取——可以肯定的是，日本最高指挥部和天皇绝不会挨饿。
The US had 1 million purple hearts made in anticipation of the invasion.* That is how dire it was supposed to be. More US military personnel would have been killed in taking Japan than in the rest of the war up to that point. It is estimated that there would be 300,000 American deaths alone and 1 million casualties. Estimates were of 1 to 20 million civilian and military deaths.
美国为筹备此次入侵，提前制作了100万枚紫心勋章*。由此可见当时局势的严峻程度。攻占日本所导致的美军阵亡人数，将超过此前战争中所有美军阵亡人数的总和。据估计，仅美军死亡人数就将达到30万，伤亡总数达100万；而日本军民死亡人数预计将在100万至2000万之间。
I can’t even imagine the PTSD that would occur to Allied veterans that had to mow down waves of women and children trying to attack their positions with gardening tools and pikes. Just plain insanity. That is why the atomic weapons as horrific as they were, paled in comparison to the deaths and suffering that would have occurred with an invasion. And if an embargo was used, how many people would have starved? The Atomic weapons and the invasion of Manchuria by the Soviets were critical in the ending of the war.
我甚至无法想象，那些被迫射杀一波又一波手持园艺工具和长矛、试图攻击其阵地的妇女和儿童的盟军老兵，会遭受怎样的创伤后应激障碍（PTSD）——这简直是彻头彻尾的疯狂。正因如此，尽管原子弹的破坏力极为恐怖，但与入侵日本可能造成的死亡和苦难相比，仍相形见绌。而如果仅依靠封锁，又会有多少人饿死？原子弹的投放以及苏联对中国东北的入侵，是促成战争结束的关键因素。
Frank DuncanBS. Chemistry, 20 years an RSO, Radiological training from Homeland Security
弗兰克·邓肯 化学学士学位，担任辐射安全官（RSO）20年，接受过美国国土安全部辐射相关培训
Originally Answered: What would happen if we never nuked Japan?
最初回答：如果我们从未对日本使用核武器，会发生什么？
There was a debate about whether to use the bomb or not. Should they forgo the use of the bomb, and use the alternative: invade. Invasion was estimated to cost up to a million US casualties in dead and wounded. Operation Downfall was planned as two sequential invasions. Operation Olympic which was to capture the island of Kyushu beginning in October 1945, and Operation Coronet the following spring on the island of Honshu.
当时关于是否使用原子弹存在一场争论：是放弃使用原子弹，转而采用另一种方案——登陆入侵？据估计，入侵行动将导致多达100万美军伤亡（阵亡+受伤）。“落日行动”被规划为两次连续的入侵：1945年10月启动“奥林匹克行动”，旨在攻占九州岛；次年春季发起“王冠行动”，进攻本州岛。
Consider the effect such a decision to NOT use the bomb would have had in the United States. How could anyone tell an American mother that the United States let her son be killed because our new weapon was too powerful? Ask any mother if she felt that it was OK for her child to die because we were afraid to use this new weapon. Tell any mother that we let her son be killed because we didn’t want to be too mean to the Japanese.
试想一下，若决定不使用原子弹，这会对美国产生何种影响？谁能去告诉一位美国母亲，她的儿子牺牲是因为我们的新武器威力太强？问问任何一位母亲，她是否能接受自己的孩子因我们不敢使用这种新武器而丧生？告诉任何一位母亲，我们让她的儿子牺牲是因为不想对日本人过于“刻薄”？
The spirit of the time was much more than determined to eliminate the Japanese Empire. The Japanese had made a sneak attack on Pearl Harbor while in the middle of peace talks. They were duplicitous, brutal animals that were as cruel as Vlad the Impaler. They had shown no mercy whatsoever in their conquests and so deserved none. On Okinawa, the Japanese did not take a single American prisoner. They killed every single American they captured. Every last one. The attitude of the time was that the only good Jap was a dead Jap.
当时的社会氛围远不止是决心摧毁日本帝国。日本在和平谈判期间对珍珠港发动了偷袭，他们是像穿刺公弗拉德（中世纪罗马尼亚暴君，以残忍著称）一样狡诈、残暴的暴徒。在征服过程中，他们毫无怜悯之心，因此也不配得到任何宽恕。冲绳岛战役中，日军未抓获任何一名美国战俘，他们将捕获的每一个美国人都杀害了，一个不留。当时的普遍态度是：“死日本人才是好日本人”。
The modern day revisionists and apologists completely ignore several important things about dropping the bombs. Up to the moment of Pearl Harbor, the population of the United States was very isolationist. We didn’t want to get involved in another Great War. The attack on Pearl Harbor changed that in a single day. By 1945, American people were sick and tired of a war that had been thrust on them. We had lost hundreds of thousands in dead and wounded fighting a war we did not start or want. We had spent treasure to supply the world with the weapons of war – again- a war we didn’t start or want.
现代修正主义者和辩护者完全忽视了与投放原子弹相关的几个关键事实。珍珠港事件发生前，美国民众普遍奉行孤立主义，不愿卷入另一场世界大战。但珍珠港的袭击在一天之内改变了这一切。到1945年，美国民众已对这场强加于身的战争感到厌倦至极——我们在这场非由我们发起、也非我们所愿的战争中付出了数十万伤亡的代价，还耗费巨资为世界提供战争武器，而这同样是一场我们不愿参与、未曾挑起的战争。
The American people were united in their hatred of the Japanese. The Japanese had made an unprovoked attack without a declaration of war. A sneak attack killing thousands of Americans while we were still at peace. Now, even when obviously defeated, they would not surrender. They would commit suicide before surrendering. Their concept of surrender was such that it would dishonor themselves, their families and far worse, their ancestors. When they said, ”Death before dishonor,” they really meant it. The Japanese mindset was so fundamentally different that we in the West simply could not understand why they wouldn't surrender when they were defeated. Until the Japanese realized it was time to quit, the war would continue.
美国民众对日本的仇恨空前一致：日本在未宣战的情况下发动无端攻击，在两国仍处于和平状态时，以偷袭方式杀害了数千名美国人。而即便已明显战败，日本仍拒绝投降，宁愿自杀也不愿屈服。在他们的观念中，投降会玷污自己、家族的荣誉，更严重的是会玷污祖先的名誉。当他们说“宁死不屈”时，是发自内心的坚定信念。日本人的思维方式与西方人存在本质差异，我们根本无法理解为何他们在战败后仍不愿投降——除非日本主动意识到该停止战争，否则战事将持续不断。
It might be noted that General “Stormin’ Norman” Schwartzkopf wrote a paper when he was a cadet that in 1945 the Quartermaster Corps of the Army ordered 750,000 Purple Hearts prior to the invasion because, based on the casualties so far in the Pacific Theater, that is how many US casualties they expected during the invasions. Modern day revisionists should consider what the people on scene, at that time and place expected.
值得一提的是，“诺曼风暴”施瓦茨科普夫将军在军校就读期间曾撰写过一篇论文，其中提到1945年，美国陆军军需兵部队在计划入侵日本前订购了75万枚紫心勋章——基于太平洋战场此前的伤亡情况，这正是他们预计入侵行动中会产生的美军伤亡人数。现代修正主义者应当思考，当时身处那个时代、那个环境的人们是如何预判局势的。
The Japanese had correctly identified the beaches where the Americans would have to invade. Our photoreconnaissance clearly showed that they were not planning to surrender, but to fight to the bitter end and they had thousands of cannon and machineguns aimed at them. The fire bombings of the cities had killed far more people than the atomic bombs did, but the atomic bombs had become a change in quantity that was a change in quality. Even at the very end, it was only the direct intervention of the Emperor who only barely prevailed over the military who wanted to fight on.
日本已准确预判到美军的登陆海滩位置。我们的航空侦察清晰显示，他们毫无投降之意，而是要战斗到最后一刻，数千门大炮和机枪已瞄准了这些登陆点。此前对日本城市的燃烧弹轰炸造成的死亡人数远超过原子弹，但原子弹带来的伤亡规模变化，实则引发了质的改变。即便到了战争最后时刻，也是在天皇直接干预下，才勉强压制住了主张继续作战的军方势力。
There were also other reasons to end the war as quickly as possible. The Japanese were running out of food and we knew that orders had gone out to kill all prisoners of war. It was certain that when we started to invade the home islands, all our prisoners would be massacred. In addition, there were hundreds of thousands of Japanese troops scattered throughout Asia as garrison troops. They had to be ordered to surrender or they could have created a hundred Nanking's when the invasion took place. So there was more than simply defeating the Japanese Army, there had to be a direction of surrender, or at least to stop fighting.
此外，还有其他必须尽快结束战争的原因。日本当时已濒临粮食枯竭，而我们得知，日军已下达处决所有战俘的命令——一旦我们开始入侵日本本土，所有在日军手中的盟军战俘都将遭到屠杀。同时，还有数十万日军作为驻军分散在亚洲各地，必须有明确的投降命令传达给他们，否则在入侵行动开始后，他们可能会制造出上百个“南京大屠杀”式的惨案。因此，我们的目标不仅仅是击败日本军队，更需要让他们明确投降方向，至少停止抵抗。
The terrible possibility of an American ” Lost Generation” like that of England and France must have been one of the reasons why President Truman sanctioned the use of the bombs. He was a combat proven officer in WWI and would rather drop the bombs than lose the lives of his troops.
杜鲁门总统批准使用原子弹，原因之一必定是担心美国会像英国和法国那样，出现“迷惘的一代”——这一后果不堪设想。他曾是一战中经过实战检验的军官，宁愿投放原子弹，也不愿让自己的士兵牺牲。
Their use saved not just many, many American lives, it also saved Japanese lives. President Truman had just two alternatives on his desk: Invade, or use the bomb. End of list. Invade and lose up to a million dead or wounded, and up to 20,000,000 Japanese dead, or drop the bombs.
使用原子弹不仅拯救了无数美国人的生命，也拯救了日本民众的生命。杜鲁门总统当时面前只有两个选择：要么入侵，要么使用原子弹，别无其他。入侵将导致多达100万美军伤亡、2000万日本民众死亡，而投放原子弹则能避免这一结局。
So, with the information at hand, what would have happened? There would have been a political explosion in the US when people found out that we could have saved up to a million US casualties by dropping the bombs, and didn’t. The Japanese population would have been decimated. Russia would have occupied Hokkaido probably even till today. All of our prisoners of war would have been massacred. There would have been massacres of hundreds of thousands, if not millions more Chinese.
Those are the results of NOT dropping the bombs. And that is why they were dropped.
那么，结合当时掌握的信息，若不投放原子弹会发生什么？当美国民众发现，我们本可以通过投放原子弹拯救多达100万美军的生命，却选择了放弃时，国内必将爆发政治动荡；日本民众将遭遇毁灭性打击；俄罗斯很可能会占领北海道，甚至持续至今；所有盟军战俘都将被屠杀；还会有数十万乃至数百万中国人惨遭日军屠戮。
这些便是不投放原子弹的后果——这也是我们最终决定投放原子弹的原因。
评论翻译
Frank Duncan Extensive study about WWII
弗兰克·邓肯 二战相关深入研究者
Originally Answered: What if America chose not to drop atomic bombs in Japan?
The death toll for both the Japanese and Americans would have been far, far higher.
最初回答：若美国当时未向日本投放原子弹，会发生什么？
无论对日本人还是美国人而言，死亡人数都会比实际情况多得多。
Truman had two options open to him: Drop the atomic bombs, or invade. There was a third option considered and that was just blockade. But in June, 1945, after Germany had surrendered, the Reich Minister of Armaments and War Production Albert_Speer, was debriefed and it was found that the massive bombing campaign against Germany hadn’t done nearly the damage thought and that production had increased up until Germany was being occupied. It was reasoned that if Germany could do it, so could Japan. It had also been proposed to drop a bomb on an uninhabited island as a demonstration. This was considered and rejected for several reasons. First, the Japanese had demonstrated that regardless of the odds, the Japanese military didn’t surrender. This had been proved in hundreds of battles. Then again, dropping a big flashbulb wasn’t going to impress an army like that. In addition, this was one of the most expensive weapons ever developed, second only to the B-29, and not using it that would cost even one American life was totally unacceptable.
杜鲁门当时有两个选择：投放原子弹，或是发动登陆入侵。当时还考虑过第三种方案，即单纯实施封锁。但1945年6月德国投降后，对纳粹德国军备与战时生产部长阿尔贝特·施佩尔的讯问显示，此前对德国发起的大规模轰炸造成的破坏远未达到预期，而且直到德国被占领前，其军工生产仍在增长。由此可推断，既然德国能做到这一点，日本也同样可以。当时还有人提议在无人岛屿投放原子弹，以此作为威慑展示。该提议虽被讨论，但最终因多种原因遭否决。首先，日本此前的表现已表明，无论战局多么不利，日本军方都不会投降，这一点在数百场战役中都得到了证实。再者，这种“放个大烟花”的做法根本无法震慑那样一支军队。此外，原子弹是当时研发成本最高的武器之一，成本仅次于B-29轰炸机，若为不使用它而导致哪怕一名美国人丧生，都是完全无法接受的。
The determination of the Japanese to literally fight to the last man had been demonstrated on Tarawa, Saipan, Iwo Jima, Okinawa and a hundred other battles. It was anticipated that the invasion of Japan, Operation_Downfall, would involve up to a million US casualties and incidentally wipe out the Japanese population. Operation Downfall was the combination of Olympic, the invasion of Kyushu scheduled for November 1, 1945, and Coronet, the invasion of Honshu scheduled for March 1, 1946. The Japanese estimates were that 20 million Japanese would die. Diplomatic and military decrypts had shown that the garrison of Kyushu had increased from 150,000 men to 545,000 while all of Japan now had a garrison of over 2,000,000.
日本人血战到底、战至最后一人的决心，在塔拉瓦、塞班岛、硫磺岛、冲绳岛以及其他上百场战役中都有所体现。当时预计，对日本本土发起的“没落行动”（登陆入侵）将导致多达100万美军伤亡，同时还会间接造成日本民众大量死亡。“没落行动”由两部分组成：计划于1945年11月1日发起的“奥林匹克行动”（进攻九州岛），以及计划于1946年3月1日发起的“王冠行动”（进攻本州岛）。日本方面估计，届时将有2000万日本人丧生。外交与军事解密信息显示，九州岛的驻军已从15万人增至54.5万人，而当时整个日本的驻军人数已超过200万。
In addition to the American plans for an invasion, the British were also planning an invasion of their own with Operation_Zipper to capture part of Malaya, and Operation_Mailfist, for the reoccupation of Singapore. These were to take place shortly after the invasion by the American Operation Downfall but were aborted by the surrender of Japan. The British were very concerned about the possibility of continued Japanese resistance that would have resulted in the deaths of all of the prisoners of war held in the prison camps, along with the many civilians interned since the outbreak of the war.
除美国的登陆入侵计划外，英国也在制定自己的入侵计划：“拉链行动”旨在夺取马来亚部分地区，“重拳行动”则是为了重新占领新加坡。这些行动原计划在美国“没落行动”发起后不久实施，但因日本投降而中止。英国当时非常担心日本会继续抵抗，因为这可能导致集中营中所有战俘以及自战争爆发以来被关押的众多平民全部丧生。
The spring and summer of 1945 saw the Japanese planning and preparing for the Ketsu-Go, or the Decisive Battle for the Homeland。All school classes were cancelled which freed up more than 13,000,000 young people for the coming battle. By the summer of 1945, these people were divided into three types: Special guard Forces composed of older men who were assigned to build fortifications and transport supplies. The Independent Companies who were mobilized reservists who were building camouflaged landing strips for kamikaze’s and were trained for combat. And then there were the Civilian Volunteer Corps formed in June 1945, who were everyone else above the age of 15 and who were set to make munitions, food, and making last ditch weapons. The West was fighting against an enemy where even the women and children were being trained and armed with sharpened bamboo poles to kill the Americans. They were instructed to, “always thrust tall Yankees in their belly.” In short, everyone above the age of 15, male or female, was going to be a soldier to defend the Homeland. Around 2 million civilians were part of the Patriotic Citizens Fighting Corps that were trained for combat even if it was only with sharpened bamboo spears. By August, 1945, the Japanese had accumulated 5,350 airplanes, over 1,000,000 gallons of gasoline and 6,200 fast suicide boats in preparation for the forthcoming American invasion.
1945年春夏两季，日本正在策划并准备“最后作战”，即“本土决战”。当时日本所有学校停课，这使得超过1300万名年轻人可投入即将到来的战斗。到1945年夏季，这些人员被分为三类：一是由年长男性组成的特种警卫部队，负责修建防御工事和运输物资；二是独立连队，成员为动员起来的预备役人员，他们要为神风特攻队修建伪装跑道，同时接受战斗训练；三是1945年6月组建的民间志愿队，成员涵盖所有15岁以上的其他人群，负责制造弹药、粮食以及绝境作战用的武器。西方盟国当时面对的敌人，甚至连妇女和儿童都接受了训练，他们手持削尖的竹竿，准备杀死美国人，还被教导要“朝着高个子 Yankees（指美国人）的肚子捅”。简而言之，所有15岁以上的人，无论男女，都要成为士兵保卫本土。约200万平民加入了“爱国市民战斗队”，即便只能使用削尖的竹矛，他们也接受了战斗训练。到1945年8月，日本已囤积了5350架飞机、超过100万加仑汽油以及6200艘高速自杀式快艇，为即将到来的美军入侵做准备。
These are the people who simply didn’t surrender. They literally jump off of cliffs to their death before surrender. Look at the statistics that faced the Americans. In 1943, at Buna, New Guinea, out of 14,000 Japanese troops, not one surrendered. In 1943, on Kiska, Alaska, out of 2,500 troops, there were 28 prisoners, some wounded. On Tarawa, out of 3,600 troops, 17 surrendered. On Saipan, there were 32,000 troops, and there were 921 prisoners. On Peleliu, out of 10,900 Japanese soldiers, 19 were captured, along with 183 laborers. On Iwo Jima, there were 21,000 troops, and 216 surrendered. In the Philippines, 56,263 Japanese soldiers were killed, but only 389 surrendered. Just in the battle for Manila, 1,000 US soldiers died, but the entire garrison of 17,000 Japanese soldiers fought and died to the very last man-and over 100,000 civilians were massacred. On Okinawa, graves registration buried 110,701 dead and 7,401 were captured. Simply put, these are not an enemy you can scare. They didn’t scare. They looked Death in the face up close and personal, face-to-face, eyeball-to-eyeball, and didn’t blx. With very, very few exceptions, they simply wouldn’t surrender.
这些人就是绝不投降的典型。他们宁愿跳崖自尽，也不愿投降。看看美军当时面临的统计数据便知：1943年，新几内亚布纳战役中，1.4万名日军无一人投降；1943年，阿拉斯加基斯卡岛战役中，2500名日军仅产生28名战俘，其中部分还是伤员；塔拉瓦战役中，3600名日军仅17人投降；塞班岛战役中，3.2万名日军产生921名战俘；佩莱利乌岛战役中，1.09万名日军仅19人被俘，另有183名劳工被俘；硫磺岛战役中，2.1万名日军仅216人投降；在菲律宾战场，5.6263万名日军被击毙，仅389人投降；仅在马尼拉战役中，就有1000名美军士兵阵亡，而驻守的1.7万名日军全部战斗至最后一人，无一生还，同时还有超过10万名平民惨遭屠杀；冲绳岛战役中，根据墓地登记记录，共有11.0701万名日军被掩埋（即阵亡），仅7401人被俘。简而言之，这不是一支可以用威慑吓退的敌人。他们毫不畏惧，即便与死亡近距离面对面、眼神对峙，也丝毫没有退缩。除极少数例外情况，他们就是绝不投降。
The loss ratio between American and Japanese losses had become alarming. Six out of ten US casualties in the Pacific took place in the last 11 months of the war. In Luzon, in the Philippines, the Americans had lost 31,000 casualties and the Japanese 156,000 or a ratio of about 1 American to 5 Japanese. On Iwo Jima, the loss ratio had fallen to 1 American to 1.25 Japanese. As the battle on Okinawa raged, the ratio was 1 American casualty for 1.6 Japanese losses. In addition to the casualties of soldiers, the Americans had also lost 12 destroyers, 15 amphibious ships and 9 others with 386 damaged in addition to over 760 aircraft and 225 tanks. It was clear that any battle on Japanese soil would result in even more fanatical resistance than the Americans had met so far.
美日双方的伤亡比例已变得令人担忧。太平洋战场上，美军10例伤亡中有6例发生在战争的最后11个月。在菲律宾吕宋岛战役中，美军伤亡3.1万人，日军伤亡15.6万人，美日伤亡比约为1:5；硫磺岛战役中，这一比例降至1:1.25；冲绳岛战役激战期间，美日伤亡比为1:1.6。除士兵伤亡外，美军还损失了12艘驱逐舰、15艘两栖舰艇以及9艘其他类型船只，另有386艘船只受损，同时损失的还有760多架飞机和225辆坦克。显然，若在日本本土作战，美军遭遇的抵抗将比此前任何时候都更为狂热。
The decision to use the atomic bombs is more clearly shown by this excerpt from Major General Charles Sweeny’s book The War’s End:
查尔斯·斯威尼少将在其著作《战争的终结》中的这段摘录，更清晰地说明了使用原子弹这一决定的背景：
“The only facts and numbers that are relevant to a discussion of Truman’s decision, therefore, are those facts and numbers the president had in front of him in July 1945. The staggering casualties at Iwo Jima and Okinawa were not projections, they were memorialized by rows of white crosses and hospital wards filled with broken bodies. In each case, Japanese military forces fought to the death, as they had done everywhere else. The casualty ratio as the United States drew closer to Japan was one to two.
“因此，在讨论杜鲁门的这一决定时，唯一相关的事实与数据，是1945年7月呈现在总统面前的那些事实与数据。硫磺岛和冲绳岛战役中惊人的伤亡数字并非预测，而是由一排排白色十字架（象征阵亡士兵）和满是伤残士兵的医院病房所印证的事实。在这两场战役中，日本军队都战斗至最后一刻，正如他们在其他所有战场的表现一样。随着美军逐步逼近日本本土，美日伤亡比已降至1:2。
Based upon the realities, Truman’s military advisers, in a White House meeting on June 18, 1945, predicted that 30 to 35 percent of the 770,000-man invasion force could reasonably be expected to be killed or wounded during just the first thirty days of the invasion of Kyushu. Translation 231,000 to 269,000 dead or wounded Americans in the first thirty days of combat. It was estimated that it would take a hundred and twenty days to secure and occupy the entire island. By the end of that four-month period, Americans casualties would realistically reach around 395,000. And over one million of our troops still awaited the second prong of the invasion. In March 1946 they would wade ashore near Tokyo to take Honshu.
基于这些现实情况，杜鲁门的军事顾问们在1945年6月18日的白宫会议上预测，在进攻九州岛的最初30天内，77万人的入侵部队中，预计有30%至35%的人可能伤亡。换算成具体数字就是：战斗最初30天内，美军伤亡人数将达到23.1万至26.9万人。当时估计，要完全控制并占领整个九州岛需要120天。到这四个月结束时，美军实际伤亡人数有望达到约39.5万人。此外，还有超过100万美军士兵在等待入侵行动的第二阶段——1946年3月，他们将在东京附近登陆，进攻本州岛。
These estimates assumed, of course, that all would go according to plan. Yet Okinawa had expected to fall in two weeks; instead the battle had dragged into eighty-two days, and even then it took several more weeks after that to secure the island.”
当然，这些估计的前提是一切都按计划进行。但此前冲绳岛战役原本预计两周内就能结束，结果却拖了82天，即便如此，在战役结束后又花了好几周时间才完全控制该岛。”
Consider the effect such a decision NOT to use the atomic bombs would have had in the United States. How could anyone tell an American mother that the United States let her son be killed because bombing was too cruel? Ask any mother if she felt that it was OK for her child to die because we were reluctant to kill the enemy. Tell any mother that we let her son be killed because we didn’t want to be too cruel to the Japanese.
试想一下，若当时决定不使用原子弹，这会对美国产生何种影响？谁能去告诉一位美国母亲，她的儿子牺牲是因为美国认为轰炸过于残忍？问问任何一位母亲，她是否能接受自己的孩子因我们不愿杀害敌人而丧生？告诉任何一位母亲，我们让她的儿子牺牲是因为不想对日本人过于残忍？
The spirit of the time was much more than determined to eliminate the Japanese Empire. The Japanese had made a sneak attack on Pearl Harbor while in the middle of peace talks. They were duplicitous, brutal animals that were as cruel as Vlad the Impaler. They had shown no mercy whatsoever in their conquests and so deserved none. They had killed thousands at Pearl Harbor, killed thousands more in the Bataan Death march, and on Okinawa, the Japanese did not take a single American prisoner. They killed every single American they captured. Every last one. The attitude of the American people at that time was that the only good Jap was a dead Jap.
当时的社会氛围远不止是决心摧毁日本帝国那么简单。日本在和平谈判期间对珍珠港发动了偷袭，他们是像穿刺公弗拉德一样残忍、狡诈的暴徒。在征服过程中，他们毫无怜悯之心，因此也不配得到任何怜悯。他们在珍珠港杀害了数千人，在巴丹死亡行军中又杀害了数千人，而在冲绳岛战役中，日军没有抓获任何一名美国战俘，他们将捕获的每一个美国人都杀害了，一个不留。当时美国民众的态度是：“死了的日本人才是好日本人”。
The modern day revisionists and apologists completely ignore several important considerations about the bombing campaign. Up to the moment of Pearl Harbor, the population of the United States was very isolationist. The general opinion was “Let those Europeans stew in their own juices.” We didn’t want to get involved in another Great War. The attack on Pearl Harbor changed that in a single day. By 1945, we had lost hundreds of thousands in dead and wounded fighting a war we did not start or want. We had spent treasure to supply the world with the weapons of war – again - a war we didn’t start or want. The American people were united in their hatred of the Japanese. The Japanese had made an unprovoked attack without a declaration of war. A sneak attack killing thousands of Americans while we were still at peace.
现代修正主义者和辩护者完全忽视了与轰炸行动相关的几个重要因素。在珍珠港事件发生前，美国民众普遍奉行孤立主义，主流观点是“让欧洲人自食其果”，我们不愿卷入另一场世界大战。但珍珠港的袭击在一天之内改变了这一切。到1945年，我们在这场并非由我们发起、也非我们所愿的战争中，已付出了数十万伤亡的代价，还耗费巨资为世界提供战争武器——同样，这是一场我们不愿参与、也未曾挑起的战争。美国民众对日本的仇恨空前一致，因为日本在未宣战的情况下发动了无端攻击，在两国仍处于和平状态时，以偷袭方式杀害了数千名美国人。
The US military knew that Japan was militarily defeated by 1943, and by1944 had no chance for winning the war. Now, even when obviously defeated, they would not surrender. They would commit suicide before surrendering. Their concept of surrender was such that it would dishonor themselves, their families and far worse, their ancestors. When they said, ”Death before dishonor,” they really meant it in a very literal sense. The Japanese mindset was so fundamentally different that we in the West simply could not understand why they wouldn't surrender when they were defeated. Until the Japanese realized it was time to surrender, the war would continue.
美国军方早在1943年就知道日本在军事上已遭重创，到1944年时，日本已毫无获胜可能。然而，即便已明显战败，他们仍拒绝投降，宁愿自杀也不愿屈服。在他们的观念中，投降会玷污自己、家族的荣誉，更严重的是，会玷污祖先的名誉。当他们说“宁死不屈”时，是完全字面意义上的坚定信念。日本人的思维方式与我们西方人截然不同，我们根本无法理解为何他们在战败后仍不愿投降。除非日本主动意识到该投降了，否则战争将持续下去。
It might be noted that General “Stormin’ Norman” Schwartzkopf wrote a paper when he was a cadet that in 1945 the Quartermaster Corps of the Army ordered 750,000 Purple Hearts prior to the invasion because, based on the casualties so far in the Pacific Theater, that is how many US casualties they expected during the invasions. Modern day revisionists should consider what the people on scene, at that time and place expected.
值得一提的是，“诺曼风暴”施瓦茨科普夫将军在军校就读期间曾撰写过一篇论文，其中提到1945年，美国陆军军需兵部队在计划入侵日本前订购了75万枚紫心勋章——基于太平洋战场此前的伤亡情况，这正是他们预计入侵行动中会产生的美军伤亡人数。现代修正主义者应当思考，当时身处那个时代、那个环境的人们是如何预判局势的。
The Japanese had correctly identified the beaches where the Americans would have to invade their islands. The Japanese had planned a final stand with the Ketsugo Operation that was being prepared by a stream of reinforcements from the other islands. Over 5000 aircraft and a million gallons of fuel had been accumulated in secret caves ready to be launched against the expected invasion fleet. Our photoreconnaissance clearly showed that they were not planning to surrender, but to fight to the bitter end. They had thousands of cannon and machine guns aimed at those beaches.
日本已准确预判到美军将登陆的海滩位置，并计划通过“决号作战”进行最后抵抗——他们不断从其他岛屿调派援军，积极备战。日军在秘密洞穴中囤积了超过5000架飞机和100万加仑汽油，随时准备对抗预期中的入侵舰队。我们的航空侦察清晰显示，他们毫无投降之意，而是要战斗到最后一刻，数千门大炮和机枪已瞄准了那些登陆海滩。
The fire bombings of the cities had killed far more people than the atomic bombs did, but the atomic bombs had become a change in quantity that was a change in quality. Even at the very end, it was only the direct intervention of the Emperor who only just barely prevailed over the military who wanted to fight on.
此前对日本城市的燃烧弹轰炸造成的死亡人数远超过原子弹，但原子弹带来的伤亡规模变化，实则引发了质的改变。即便到了战争最后时刻，也是在天皇直接干预下，才勉强压制住了主张继续作战的军方势力。
There were also other reasons to end the war as quickly as possible. The Japanese were running out of food and we knew that orders had gone out to kill all prisoners of war. The Japanese held 168,000 prisoners of war! In fact, in preparation for that event, the Japanese had forced the POWs to dig trenches for their own graves. It was certain that when we started to invade the home islands, all the prisoners in Japanese hands would be massacred.
此外，还有其他必须尽快结束战争的原因。日本当时已濒临粮食枯竭，而我们得知，日军已下达处决所有战俘的命令——当时日本关押着16.8万名战俘！事实上，为执行这一命令，日军已强迫战俘挖掘用于掩埋自己的壕沟。可以肯定的是，一旦我们开始入侵日本本土，所有在日军手中的战俘都将遭到屠杀。
Besides the prisoners of war, there were also tens of thousands of civilian internees who would undoubtedly be slaughtered. In addition, there were hundreds of thousands of Japanese troops scattered throughout Asia as garrison troops. They had to be ordered to surrender or they could have created a hundred Nanking's when the invasion took place. So there was more than simply defeating the Japanese Army, there had to be a direction of surrender, or at least to stop fighting.
除战俘外，还有数万平民被关押，他们无疑也会遭到屠杀。此外，还有数十万日军作为驻军分散在亚洲各地，必须有明确的投降命令传达给他们，否则在入侵行动开始后，他们可能会制造出上百个“南京大屠杀”式的惨案。因此，我们的目标不仅仅是击败日本军队，更需要让他们明确投降方向，至少停止抵抗。
The terrible possibility of an American” Lost Generation” like that of England and France must have been one of the reasons why President Truman sanctioned the use of the atomic bombs. He was a combat proven officer in WWI and would rather drop the bombs than lose the lives of his troops.
杜鲁门总统批准使用原子弹，原因之一必定是担心美国会像英国和法国那样，出现“迷惘的一代”——这一后果不堪设想。他曾是一战中经过实战检验的军官，宁愿投放原子弹，也不愿让自己的士兵牺牲。
Mitsuo Fuchida, the pilot who guided the first wave of Japanese planes in the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, met Paul Tibbets, the pilot of the Enola Gay, who had dropped the bomb on Hiroshima. He told Paul, “You did the right thing. You know the Japanese attitude of that time, how fanatic they were. They’d die for the Emperor. Every man woman and child would resist the invasion with sticks and stones if necessary.”
曾率领第一波日军飞机偷袭珍珠港的飞行员渊田美津雄，后来与驾驶“埃诺拉·盖伊”号轰炸机在广岛投下原子弹的保罗·蒂贝茨会面。他对保罗说：“你做得对。你了解当时日本人的态度，他们是多么狂热，愿意为天皇献出生命。必要时，每一个男人、女人和孩子都会拿起棍棒和石头抵抗入侵。”
The Japanese have a saying that sometimes the greatest mercy is to show no mercy. We showed no mercy and saved millions of lives!
日本人有句谚语：有时最大的仁慈就是毫不留情。我们当时的“毫不留情”，拯救了数百万人的生命！
Steven Haddock
LL.B. degree, 25 years in litigation, administrative law, collections, bankruptcy and professional regulation
史蒂文·哈多克 法学学士学位，拥有25年诉讼、行政法、债务催收、破产及职业监管领域从业经验
Originally Answered: What would happen if the US didn't drop the atomic bomb on Japan?
最初回答：若美国未向日本投放原子弹，会发生什么？
I am often astonished that people miss the obvious.
And the obvious here… is the Soviet unx.
我常常感到惊讶，人们竟然忽略了一个显而易见的关键点。
而这个关键点……就是苏联。
It isn’t discussed much because the war did end in August 1945, but one of the things that Truman considered when dropping the bomb was the Soviet commitment to attacking Japan. The Americans knew Soviet intervention was coming, and when. Stalin wanted a cut of Japan and the Americans knew that.
这一点很少被提及，因为战争确实在1945年8月结束了，但杜鲁门决定投放原子弹时，考量因素之一便是苏联承诺进攻日本的事宜。美国人事先知晓苏联即将介入，也清楚介入的时间点——斯大林想要在日本分一杯羹，这一点美国人心知肚明。
The same day the second bomb dropped, the Soviet unx attacked Japanese forces in Manchuria. As part of that, they captured the Manchurian emperor Henry Pu Yi, and hooked up with Chinese communists in Northeast China, further destabilizing China’s internal struggles. After the Japanese surrender, Russia stayed in Manchuria until the Chinese communist takeover, handed over Pu Yi to the communists, and patted themselves on the back for a job well done.
第二颗原子弹投放的当天，苏联便对驻扎在中国东北的日军发动了进攻。在此过程中，他们俘获了伪满洲国皇帝溥仪，并与中国东北地区的***取得联系，进一步加剧了中国内部斗争的动荡局势。日本投降后，苏联在中国东北一直驻军至***接管该地区，随后将溥仪移交给***，并为自己“圆满完成任务”而自鸣得意。
And in 1945, Korea was also under Japanese control. Guess who took the opportunity to send troops there too. Yep, the Soviet unx.
And in the subsequent peace treaty, the Soviets claimed some of Japan’s smaller islands.
The longer the war against Japan goes on, the more Japanese territory goes to the Soviet unx.
1945年时，朝鲜半岛同样处于日本控制之下。猜猜谁也趁机向那里派遣了军队？没错，就是苏联。
在之后的和平条约中，苏联还侵占了日本的部分小岛。
对日本的战争持续时间越长，苏联侵占的日本领土就会越多。
Well look at that! Hokkaido, or “Soviet Japan” is right off the coast of Russia. It’s incredibly close to Sakhalin Island, which gives the Soviets an even closer staging point. It’s right near Vladivostok, the primary Soviet Pacific naval base.
你看！北海道（或称“苏联日本”）紧邻俄罗斯海岸，与库页岛相距极近——这为苏联提供了一个更近的军事集结点，且该岛就在苏联太平洋主要海军基地符拉迪沃斯托克附近。
Now, the two bombs and the attack by the Soviet unx forced Japan’s hand. Right up until August 9, 1945, the Japanese were pressing the Soviets to mediate a peace between Japan and the United States to avoid an occupation of Japan. The Soviet invasion caught Japan completely off guard and it’s roughly 1 million man army in Manchuria was pretty much completely defenseless. It was also totally useless for a defence of the home islands - there was no navy to get those men back to Japan.
正是这两颗原子弹以及苏联的进攻，迫使日本不得不做出抉择。直到1945年8月9日，日本仍在施压苏联，希望其促成日美之间的和平谈判，以避免日本被占领。而苏联的入侵完全出乎日本意料，其驻扎在中国东北的约100万军队几乎毫无防御能力，且这支部队对日本本土防御而言毫无用处——当时日本已无海军能将这些士兵撤回本土。
So, even with no bombs, Japan is in a pickle. It’s now fighting a two front war with no fuel or ammunition. Although Japanese soldiers were willing to die, when the war got to Okinawa, many of the soldiers refused to put civilian women, children and the elderly at risk, even though they often said they would prefer to die along with the soldiers.
So, if the Japanese are obstinate, the best case scenario is even more of northern Japan goes to the Soviets. They get two occupying forces instead of one.
因此，即便没有原子弹，日本也已陷入困境。当时的日本正陷入双线作战，且燃料和弹药均已耗尽。尽管日本士兵甘愿赴死，但到了冲绳岛战役时，许多士兵拒绝让平民妇女、儿童和老人陷入险境——即便他们常说愿意与士兵一同赴死。
所以，若日本执意顽抗，最好的结果也只是日本北部更多领土被苏联侵占，届时日本将面临两支占领军，而非一支。
Eugene St. Clair Studied History at Southern Illinois University System
尤金·圣克莱尔 曾在南伊利诺伊大学系统研习历史学
It would have been horrible beyond imagination.
Operation Downfall with two components, Operations Coronet and Olympic being the two main components were in the planning stages when Imperial Japan accepted the Potsdam Declaration (the Japanese government has NEVER used the word surrender in referring to the end of the war in the Pacific.)
后果将不堪设想，恐怖至极。
当日本帝国接受《波茨坦公告》时（日本政府在提及太平洋战争结束时，从未使用过“投降”一词），“没落行动”正处于规划阶段——该行动包含两个主要部分，即“王冠行动”和“奥林匹克行动”。
The Japanese were not sending up fighter aircraft in the last month or so of the war, preferring to hoard their aviation gasoline. They had thousands of aircraft, including manned rockets to attack Allied ships, specifically the transports. There might have been even some jet aircraft based upon the German ME262.
There were thousands of speed boats loaded with explosives ready to be sent out to ram Allied warships. In addition there were divers equipped with explosive mines to strike the landing craft as they tried to land their troops.
战争最后一个月左右，日本不再出动战斗机，而是选择囤积航空汽油。他们当时拥有数千架飞机，包括用于攻击盟军船只（尤其是运输舰）的有人驾驶火箭弹，甚至可能还有基于德国ME262战机研发的喷气式飞机。
日本当时还部署了数千艘装满炸药的快艇，随时准备出动撞击盟军战舰；此外，还有配备爆炸水雷的潜水员，计划在盟军登陆艇运送士兵登陆时对其发起攻击。
Civilians including older men and women, children some as young as 10 were to be used in mass attacks equipped with gardening tools or pikes, with metal stakes made from metal scavenged from American bombs and aircraft.
Even after the first atomic weapon, the Japanese were going to issue white sheets to the soldiers and civilians to protect against the flash from the bomb. Clearly madness.
日本计划动员平民参与大规模攻击，包括老年男女以及年仅10岁的儿童，他们的武器是园艺工具、长矛，或是用从美国炸弹和飞机残骸中回收的金属制成的尖桩。
即便在第一颗原子弹爆炸后，日本仍计划向士兵和平民发放白布，声称可抵御原子弹的闪光——这显然是荒谬至极的做法。
There was the possibility of biological or chemical warfare, as they had conducted both in China for years. This is probably slight as several high level officers removed the weapons from the control of subordinates prior to the end of the war. One Army officer clearly forbade its use (especially after the acceptance of the Potsdam Declaration) as it would cause Japan to be the scorn of the international community and cause a fight between microbes and humans that would never end.
日本此前在中国实施了多年的生物战和化学战，因此当时存在其使用这类武器的可能性。但这种可能性或许不大，因为战争结束前，已有多名高级军官将这些武器从下属手中收回。其中一名陆军军官明确禁止使用生化武器（尤其是在接受《波茨坦公告》后），认为这会让日本成为国际社会的公敌，并引发一场永无止境的“微生物与人的战争”。
Truman who had served in World War I and saw the futility of it was also against chemical and biological weapons and forbade its use in the invasion.
It should also be noted that the American embargo of the island had reduced its food stocks to an extremely low level and people were indeed starving to death. It has been estimated that most of Japan would be at starvation levels by December. Now why would starving millions of women and children to death is preferable to the Atomic bombs is beyond my comprehension. The high command and the Emperor would not be starving that is definite.
杜鲁门曾参加过第一次世界大战，亲眼目睹了战争的徒劳无益，他同样反对使用生化武器，并禁止在入侵行动中使用这类武器。
还需注意的是，美国对日本的封锁已使其粮食储备降至极低水平，当时确实有民众在挨饿致死。据估计，到12月时，日本大部分地区将陷入饥荒。我实在无法理解，为何让数百万妇女和儿童饿死，会比投放原子弹更可取——可以肯定的是，日本最高指挥部和天皇绝不会挨饿。
The US had 1 million purple hearts made in anticipation of the invasion.* That is how dire it was supposed to be. More US military personnel would have been killed in taking Japan than in the rest of the war up to that point. It is estimated that there would be 300,000 American deaths alone and 1 million casualties. Estimates were of 1 to 20 million civilian and military deaths.
美国为筹备此次入侵，提前制作了100万枚紫心勋章*。由此可见当时局势的严峻程度。攻占日本所导致的美军阵亡人数，将超过此前战争中所有美军阵亡人数的总和。据估计，仅美军死亡人数就将达到30万，伤亡总数达100万；而日本军民死亡人数预计将在100万至2000万之间。
I can’t even imagine the PTSD that would occur to Allied veterans that had to mow down waves of women and children trying to attack their positions with gardening tools and pikes. Just plain insanity. That is why the atomic weapons as horrific as they were, paled in comparison to the deaths and suffering that would have occurred with an invasion. And if an embargo was used, how many people would have starved? The Atomic weapons and the invasion of Manchuria by the Soviets were critical in the ending of the war.
我甚至无法想象，那些被迫射杀一波又一波手持园艺工具和长矛、试图攻击其阵地的妇女和儿童的盟军老兵，会遭受怎样的创伤后应激障碍（PTSD）——这简直是彻头彻尾的疯狂。正因如此，尽管原子弹的破坏力极为恐怖，但与入侵日本可能造成的死亡和苦难相比，仍相形见绌。而如果仅依靠封锁，又会有多少人饿死？原子弹的投放以及苏联对中国东北的入侵，是促成战争结束的关键因素。
Frank DuncanBS. Chemistry, 20 years an RSO, Radiological training from Homeland Security
弗兰克·邓肯 化学学士学位，担任辐射安全官（RSO）20年，接受过美国国土安全部辐射相关培训
Originally Answered: What would happen if we never nuked Japan?
最初回答：如果我们从未对日本使用核武器，会发生什么？
There was a debate about whether to use the bomb or not. Should they forgo the use of the bomb, and use the alternative: invade. Invasion was estimated to cost up to a million US casualties in dead and wounded. Operation Downfall was planned as two sequential invasions. Operation Olympic which was to capture the island of Kyushu beginning in October 1945, and Operation Coronet the following spring on the island of Honshu.
当时关于是否使用原子弹存在一场争论：是放弃使用原子弹，转而采用另一种方案——登陆入侵？据估计，入侵行动将导致多达100万美军伤亡（阵亡+受伤）。“落日行动”被规划为两次连续的入侵：1945年10月启动“奥林匹克行动”，旨在攻占九州岛；次年春季发起“王冠行动”，进攻本州岛。
Consider the effect such a decision to NOT use the bomb would have had in the United States. How could anyone tell an American mother that the United States let her son be killed because our new weapon was too powerful? Ask any mother if she felt that it was OK for her child to die because we were afraid to use this new weapon. Tell any mother that we let her son be killed because we didn’t want to be too mean to the Japanese.
试想一下，若决定不使用原子弹，这会对美国产生何种影响？谁能去告诉一位美国母亲，她的儿子牺牲是因为我们的新武器威力太强？问问任何一位母亲，她是否能接受自己的孩子因我们不敢使用这种新武器而丧生？告诉任何一位母亲，我们让她的儿子牺牲是因为不想对日本人过于“刻薄”？
The spirit of the time was much more than determined to eliminate the Japanese Empire. The Japanese had made a sneak attack on Pearl Harbor while in the middle of peace talks. They were duplicitous, brutal animals that were as cruel as Vlad the Impaler. They had shown no mercy whatsoever in their conquests and so deserved none. On Okinawa, the Japanese did not take a single American prisoner. They killed every single American they captured. Every last one. The attitude of the time was that the only good Jap was a dead Jap.
当时的社会氛围远不止是决心摧毁日本帝国。日本在和平谈判期间对珍珠港发动了偷袭，他们是像穿刺公弗拉德（中世纪罗马尼亚暴君，以残忍著称）一样狡诈、残暴的暴徒。在征服过程中，他们毫无怜悯之心，因此也不配得到任何宽恕。冲绳岛战役中，日军未抓获任何一名美国战俘，他们将捕获的每一个美国人都杀害了，一个不留。当时的普遍态度是：“死日本人才是好日本人”。
The modern day revisionists and apologists completely ignore several important things about dropping the bombs. Up to the moment of Pearl Harbor, the population of the United States was very isolationist. We didn’t want to get involved in another Great War. The attack on Pearl Harbor changed that in a single day. By 1945, American people were sick and tired of a war that had been thrust on them. We had lost hundreds of thousands in dead and wounded fighting a war we did not start or want. We had spent treasure to supply the world with the weapons of war – again- a war we didn’t start or want.
现代修正主义者和辩护者完全忽视了与投放原子弹相关的几个关键事实。珍珠港事件发生前，美国民众普遍奉行孤立主义，不愿卷入另一场世界大战。但珍珠港的袭击在一天之内改变了这一切。到1945年，美国民众已对这场强加于身的战争感到厌倦至极——我们在这场非由我们发起、也非我们所愿的战争中付出了数十万伤亡的代价，还耗费巨资为世界提供战争武器，而这同样是一场我们不愿参与、未曾挑起的战争。
The American people were united in their hatred of the Japanese. The Japanese had made an unprovoked attack without a declaration of war. A sneak attack killing thousands of Americans while we were still at peace. Now, even when obviously defeated, they would not surrender. They would commit suicide before surrendering. Their concept of surrender was such that it would dishonor themselves, their families and far worse, their ancestors. When they said, ”Death before dishonor,” they really meant it. The Japanese mindset was so fundamentally different that we in the West simply could not understand why they wouldn't surrender when they were defeated. Until the Japanese realized it was time to quit, the war would continue.
美国民众对日本的仇恨空前一致：日本在未宣战的情况下发动无端攻击，在两国仍处于和平状态时，以偷袭方式杀害了数千名美国人。而即便已明显战败，日本仍拒绝投降，宁愿自杀也不愿屈服。在他们的观念中，投降会玷污自己、家族的荣誉，更严重的是会玷污祖先的名誉。当他们说“宁死不屈”时，是发自内心的坚定信念。日本人的思维方式与西方人存在本质差异，我们根本无法理解为何他们在战败后仍不愿投降——除非日本主动意识到该停止战争，否则战事将持续不断。
It might be noted that General “Stormin’ Norman” Schwartzkopf wrote a paper when he was a cadet that in 1945 the Quartermaster Corps of the Army ordered 750,000 Purple Hearts prior to the invasion because, based on the casualties so far in the Pacific Theater, that is how many US casualties they expected during the invasions. Modern day revisionists should consider what the people on scene, at that time and place expected.
值得一提的是，“诺曼风暴”施瓦茨科普夫将军在军校就读期间曾撰写过一篇论文，其中提到1945年，美国陆军军需兵部队在计划入侵日本前订购了75万枚紫心勋章——基于太平洋战场此前的伤亡情况，这正是他们预计入侵行动中会产生的美军伤亡人数。现代修正主义者应当思考，当时身处那个时代、那个环境的人们是如何预判局势的。
The Japanese had correctly identified the beaches where the Americans would have to invade. Our photoreconnaissance clearly showed that they were not planning to surrender, but to fight to the bitter end and they had thousands of cannon and machineguns aimed at them. The fire bombings of the cities had killed far more people than the atomic bombs did, but the atomic bombs had become a change in quantity that was a change in quality. Even at the very end, it was only the direct intervention of the Emperor who only barely prevailed over the military who wanted to fight on.
日本已准确预判到美军的登陆海滩位置。我们的航空侦察清晰显示，他们毫无投降之意，而是要战斗到最后一刻，数千门大炮和机枪已瞄准了这些登陆点。此前对日本城市的燃烧弹轰炸造成的死亡人数远超过原子弹，但原子弹带来的伤亡规模变化，实则引发了质的改变。即便到了战争最后时刻，也是在天皇直接干预下，才勉强压制住了主张继续作战的军方势力。
There were also other reasons to end the war as quickly as possible. The Japanese were running out of food and we knew that orders had gone out to kill all prisoners of war. It was certain that when we started to invade the home islands, all our prisoners would be massacred. In addition, there were hundreds of thousands of Japanese troops scattered throughout Asia as garrison troops. They had to be ordered to surrender or they could have created a hundred Nanking's when the invasion took place. So there was more than simply defeating the Japanese Army, there had to be a direction of surrender, or at least to stop fighting.
此外，还有其他必须尽快结束战争的原因。日本当时已濒临粮食枯竭，而我们得知，日军已下达处决所有战俘的命令——一旦我们开始入侵日本本土，所有在日军手中的盟军战俘都将遭到屠杀。同时，还有数十万日军作为驻军分散在亚洲各地，必须有明确的投降命令传达给他们，否则在入侵行动开始后，他们可能会制造出上百个“南京大屠杀”式的惨案。因此，我们的目标不仅仅是击败日本军队，更需要让他们明确投降方向，至少停止抵抗。
The terrible possibility of an American ” Lost Generation” like that of England and France must have been one of the reasons why President Truman sanctioned the use of the bombs. He was a combat proven officer in WWI and would rather drop the bombs than lose the lives of his troops.
杜鲁门总统批准使用原子弹，原因之一必定是担心美国会像英国和法国那样，出现“迷惘的一代”——这一后果不堪设想。他曾是一战中经过实战检验的军官，宁愿投放原子弹，也不愿让自己的士兵牺牲。
Their use saved not just many, many American lives, it also saved Japanese lives. President Truman had just two alternatives on his desk: Invade, or use the bomb. End of list. Invade and lose up to a million dead or wounded, and up to 20,000,000 Japanese dead, or drop the bombs.
使用原子弹不仅拯救了无数美国人的生命，也拯救了日本民众的生命。杜鲁门总统当时面前只有两个选择：要么入侵，要么使用原子弹，别无其他。入侵将导致多达100万美军伤亡、2000万日本民众死亡，而投放原子弹则能避免这一结局。
So, with the information at hand, what would have happened? There would have been a political explosion in the US when people found out that we could have saved up to a million US casualties by dropping the bombs, and didn’t. The Japanese population would have been decimated. Russia would have occupied Hokkaido probably even till today. All of our prisoners of war would have been massacred. There would have been massacres of hundreds of thousands, if not millions more Chinese.
Those are the results of NOT dropping the bombs. And that is why they were dropped.
那么，结合当时掌握的信息，若不投放原子弹会发生什么？当美国民众发现，我们本可以通过投放原子弹拯救多达100万美军的生命，却选择了放弃时，国内必将爆发政治动荡；日本民众将遭遇毁灭性打击；俄罗斯很可能会占领北海道，甚至持续至今；所有盟军战俘都将被屠杀；还会有数十万乃至数百万中国人惨遭日军屠戮。
这些便是不投放原子弹的后果——这也是我们最终决定投放原子弹的原因。
弗兰克·邓肯 二战相关深入研究者
Originally Answered: What if America chose not to drop atomic bombs in Japan?
The death toll for both the Japanese and Americans would have been far, far higher.
最初回答：若美国当时未向日本投放原子弹，会发生什么？
无论对日本人还是美国人而言，死亡人数都会比实际情况多得多。
Truman had two options open to him: Drop the atomic bombs, or invade. There was a third option considered and that was just blockade. But in June, 1945, after Germany had surrendered, the Reich Minister of Armaments and War Production Albert_Speer, was debriefed and it was found that the massive bombing campaign against Germany hadn’t done nearly the damage thought and that production had increased up until Germany was being occupied. It was reasoned that if Germany could do it, so could Japan. It had also been proposed to drop a bomb on an uninhabited island as a demonstration. This was considered and rejected for several reasons. First, the Japanese had demonstrated that regardless of the odds, the Japanese military didn’t surrender. This had been proved in hundreds of battles. Then again, dropping a big flashbulb wasn’t going to impress an army like that. In addition, this was one of the most expensive weapons ever developed, second only to the B-29, and not using it that would cost even one American life was totally unacceptable.
杜鲁门当时有两个选择：投放原子弹，或是发动登陆入侵。当时还考虑过第三种方案，即单纯实施封锁。但1945年6月德国投降后，对纳粹德国军备与战时生产部长阿尔贝特·施佩尔的讯问显示，此前对德国发起的大规模轰炸造成的破坏远未达到预期，而且直到德国被占领前，其军工生产仍在增长。由此可推断，既然德国能做到这一点，日本也同样可以。当时还有人提议在无人岛屿投放原子弹，以此作为威慑展示。该提议虽被讨论，但最终因多种原因遭否决。首先，日本此前的表现已表明，无论战局多么不利，日本军方都不会投降，这一点在数百场战役中都得到了证实。再者，这种“放个大烟花”的做法根本无法震慑那样一支军队。此外，原子弹是当时研发成本最高的武器之一，成本仅次于B-29轰炸机，若为不使用它而导致哪怕一名美国人丧生，都是完全无法接受的。
The determination of the Japanese to literally fight to the last man had been demonstrated on Tarawa, Saipan, Iwo Jima, Okinawa and a hundred other battles. It was anticipated that the invasion of Japan, Operation_Downfall, would involve up to a million US casualties and incidentally wipe out the Japanese population. Operation Downfall was the combination of Olympic, the invasion of Kyushu scheduled for November 1, 1945, and Coronet, the invasion of Honshu scheduled for March 1, 1946. The Japanese estimates were that 20 million Japanese would die. Diplomatic and military decrypts had shown that the garrison of Kyushu had increased from 150,000 men to 545,000 while all of Japan now had a garrison of over 2,000,000.
日本人血战到底、战至最后一人的决心，在塔拉瓦、塞班岛、硫磺岛、冲绳岛以及其他上百场战役中都有所体现。当时预计，对日本本土发起的“没落行动”（登陆入侵）将导致多达100万美军伤亡，同时还会间接造成日本民众大量死亡。“没落行动”由两部分组成：计划于1945年11月1日发起的“奥林匹克行动”（进攻九州岛），以及计划于1946年3月1日发起的“王冠行动”（进攻本州岛）。日本方面估计，届时将有2000万日本人丧生。外交与军事解密信息显示，九州岛的驻军已从15万人增至54.5万人，而当时整个日本的驻军人数已超过200万。
In addition to the American plans for an invasion, the British were also planning an invasion of their own with Operation_Zipper to capture part of Malaya, and Operation_Mailfist, for the reoccupation of Singapore. These were to take place shortly after the invasion by the American Operation Downfall but were aborted by the surrender of Japan. The British were very concerned about the possibility of continued Japanese resistance that would have resulted in the deaths of all of the prisoners of war held in the prison camps, along with the many civilians interned since the outbreak of the war.
除美国的登陆入侵计划外，英国也在制定自己的入侵计划：“拉链行动”旨在夺取马来亚部分地区，“重拳行动”则是为了重新占领新加坡。这些行动原计划在美国“没落行动”发起后不久实施，但因日本投降而中止。英国当时非常担心日本会继续抵抗，因为这可能导致集中营中所有战俘以及自战争爆发以来被关押的众多平民全部丧生。
The spring and summer of 1945 saw the Japanese planning and preparing for the Ketsu-Go, or the Decisive Battle for the Homeland。All school classes were cancelled which freed up more than 13,000,000 young people for the coming battle. By the summer of 1945, these people were divided into three types: Special guard Forces composed of older men who were assigned to build fortifications and transport supplies. The Independent Companies who were mobilized reservists who were building camouflaged landing strips for kamikaze’s and were trained for combat. And then there were the Civilian Volunteer Corps formed in June 1945, who were everyone else above the age of 15 and who were set to make munitions, food, and making last ditch weapons. The West was fighting against an enemy where even the women and children were being trained and armed with sharpened bamboo poles to kill the Americans. They were instructed to, “always thrust tall Yankees in their belly.” In short, everyone above the age of 15, male or female, was going to be a soldier to defend the Homeland. Around 2 million civilians were part of the Patriotic Citizens Fighting Corps that were trained for combat even if it was only with sharpened bamboo spears. By August, 1945, the Japanese had accumulated 5,350 airplanes, over 1,000,000 gallons of gasoline and 6,200 fast suicide boats in preparation for the forthcoming American invasion.
1945年春夏两季，日本正在策划并准备“最后作战”，即“本土决战”。当时日本所有学校停课，这使得超过1300万名年轻人可投入即将到来的战斗。到1945年夏季，这些人员被分为三类：一是由年长男性组成的特种警卫部队，负责修建防御工事和运输物资；二是独立连队，成员为动员起来的预备役人员，他们要为神风特攻队修建伪装跑道，同时接受战斗训练；三是1945年6月组建的民间志愿队，成员涵盖所有15岁以上的其他人群，负责制造弹药、粮食以及绝境作战用的武器。西方盟国当时面对的敌人，甚至连妇女和儿童都接受了训练，他们手持削尖的竹竿，准备杀死美国人，还被教导要“朝着高个子 Yankees（指美国人）的肚子捅”。简而言之，所有15岁以上的人，无论男女，都要成为士兵保卫本土。约200万平民加入了“爱国市民战斗队”，即便只能使用削尖的竹矛，他们也接受了战斗训练。到1945年8月，日本已囤积了5350架飞机、超过100万加仑汽油以及6200艘高速自杀式快艇，为即将到来的美军入侵做准备。
These are the people who simply didn’t surrender. They literally jump off of cliffs to their death before surrender. Look at the statistics that faced the Americans. In 1943, at Buna, New Guinea, out of 14,000 Japanese troops, not one surrendered. In 1943, on Kiska, Alaska, out of 2,500 troops, there were 28 prisoners, some wounded. On Tarawa, out of 3,600 troops, 17 surrendered. On Saipan, there were 32,000 troops, and there were 921 prisoners. On Peleliu, out of 10,900 Japanese soldiers, 19 were captured, along with 183 laborers. On Iwo Jima, there were 21,000 troops, and 216 surrendered. In the Philippines, 56,263 Japanese soldiers were killed, but only 389 surrendered. Just in the battle for Manila, 1,000 US soldiers died, but the entire garrison of 17,000 Japanese soldiers fought and died to the very last man-and over 100,000 civilians were massacred. On Okinawa, graves registration buried 110,701 dead and 7,401 were captured. Simply put, these are not an enemy you can scare. They didn’t scare. They looked Death in the face up close and personal, face-to-face, eyeball-to-eyeball, and didn’t blx. With very, very few exceptions, they simply wouldn’t surrender.
这些人就是绝不投降的典型。他们宁愿跳崖自尽，也不愿投降。看看美军当时面临的统计数据便知：1943年，新几内亚布纳战役中，1.4万名日军无一人投降；1943年，阿拉斯加基斯卡岛战役中，2500名日军仅产生28名战俘，其中部分还是伤员；塔拉瓦战役中，3600名日军仅17人投降；塞班岛战役中，3.2万名日军产生921名战俘；佩莱利乌岛战役中，1.09万名日军仅19人被俘，另有183名劳工被俘；硫磺岛战役中，2.1万名日军仅216人投降；在菲律宾战场，5.6263万名日军被击毙，仅389人投降；仅在马尼拉战役中，就有1000名美军士兵阵亡，而驻守的1.7万名日军全部战斗至最后一人，无一生还，同时还有超过10万名平民惨遭屠杀；冲绳岛战役中，根据墓地登记记录，共有11.0701万名日军被掩埋（即阵亡），仅7401人被俘。简而言之，这不是一支可以用威慑吓退的敌人。他们毫不畏惧，即便与死亡近距离面对面、眼神对峙，也丝毫没有退缩。除极少数例外情况，他们就是绝不投降。
The loss ratio between American and Japanese losses had become alarming. Six out of ten US casualties in the Pacific took place in the last 11 months of the war. In Luzon, in the Philippines, the Americans had lost 31,000 casualties and the Japanese 156,000 or a ratio of about 1 American to 5 Japanese. On Iwo Jima, the loss ratio had fallen to 1 American to 1.25 Japanese. As the battle on Okinawa raged, the ratio was 1 American casualty for 1.6 Japanese losses. In addition to the casualties of soldiers, the Americans had also lost 12 destroyers, 15 amphibious ships and 9 others with 386 damaged in addition to over 760 aircraft and 225 tanks. It was clear that any battle on Japanese soil would result in even more fanatical resistance than the Americans had met so far.
美日双方的伤亡比例已变得令人担忧。太平洋战场上，美军10例伤亡中有6例发生在战争的最后11个月。在菲律宾吕宋岛战役中，美军伤亡3.1万人，日军伤亡15.6万人，美日伤亡比约为1:5；硫磺岛战役中，这一比例降至1:1.25；冲绳岛战役激战期间，美日伤亡比为1:1.6。除士兵伤亡外，美军还损失了12艘驱逐舰、15艘两栖舰艇以及9艘其他类型船只，另有386艘船只受损，同时损失的还有760多架飞机和225辆坦克。显然，若在日本本土作战，美军遭遇的抵抗将比此前任何时候都更为狂热。
The decision to use the atomic bombs is more clearly shown by this excerpt from Major General Charles Sweeny’s book The War’s End:
查尔斯·斯威尼少将在其著作《战争的终结》中的这段摘录，更清晰地说明了使用原子弹这一决定的背景：
“The only facts and numbers that are relevant to a discussion of Truman’s decision, therefore, are those facts and numbers the president had in front of him in July 1945. The staggering casualties at Iwo Jima and Okinawa were not projections, they were memorialized by rows of white crosses and hospital wards filled with broken bodies. In each case, Japanese military forces fought to the death, as they had done everywhere else. The casualty ratio as the United States drew closer to Japan was one to two.
“因此，在讨论杜鲁门的这一决定时，唯一相关的事实与数据，是1945年7月呈现在总统面前的那些事实与数据。硫磺岛和冲绳岛战役中惊人的伤亡数字并非预测，而是由一排排白色十字架（象征阵亡士兵）和满是伤残士兵的医院病房所印证的事实。在这两场战役中，日本军队都战斗至最后一刻，正如他们在其他所有战场的表现一样。随着美军逐步逼近日本本土，美日伤亡比已降至1:2。
Based upon the realities, Truman’s military advisers, in a White House meeting on June 18, 1945, predicted that 30 to 35 percent of the 770,000-man invasion force could reasonably be expected to be killed or wounded during just the first thirty days of the invasion of Kyushu. Translation 231,000 to 269,000 dead or wounded Americans in the first thirty days of combat. It was estimated that it would take a hundred and twenty days to secure and occupy the entire island. By the end of that four-month period, Americans casualties would realistically reach around 395,000. And over one million of our troops still awaited the second prong of the invasion. In March 1946 they would wade ashore near Tokyo to take Honshu.
基于这些现实情况，杜鲁门的军事顾问们在1945年6月18日的白宫会议上预测，在进攻九州岛的最初30天内，77万人的入侵部队中，预计有30%至35%的人可能伤亡。换算成具体数字就是：战斗最初30天内，美军伤亡人数将达到23.1万至26.9万人。当时估计，要完全控制并占领整个九州岛需要120天。到这四个月结束时，美军实际伤亡人数有望达到约39.5万人。此外，还有超过100万美军士兵在等待入侵行动的第二阶段——1946年3月，他们将在东京附近登陆，进攻本州岛。
These estimates assumed, of course, that all would go according to plan. Yet Okinawa had expected to fall in two weeks; instead the battle had dragged into eighty-two days, and even then it took several more weeks after that to secure the island.”
当然，这些估计的前提是一切都按计划进行。但此前冲绳岛战役原本预计两周内就能结束，结果却拖了82天，即便如此，在战役结束后又花了好几周时间才完全控制该岛。”
Consider the effect such a decision NOT to use the atomic bombs would have had in the United States. How could anyone tell an American mother that the United States let her son be killed because bombing was too cruel? Ask any mother if she felt that it was OK for her child to die because we were reluctant to kill the enemy. Tell any mother that we let her son be killed because we didn’t want to be too cruel to the Japanese.
试想一下，若当时决定不使用原子弹，这会对美国产生何种影响？谁能去告诉一位美国母亲，她的儿子牺牲是因为美国认为轰炸过于残忍？问问任何一位母亲，她是否能接受自己的孩子因我们不愿杀害敌人而丧生？告诉任何一位母亲，我们让她的儿子牺牲是因为不想对日本人过于残忍？
The spirit of the time was much more than determined to eliminate the Japanese Empire. The Japanese had made a sneak attack on Pearl Harbor while in the middle of peace talks. They were duplicitous, brutal animals that were as cruel as Vlad the Impaler. They had shown no mercy whatsoever in their conquests and so deserved none. They had killed thousands at Pearl Harbor, killed thousands more in the Bataan Death march, and on Okinawa, the Japanese did not take a single American prisoner. They killed every single American they captured. Every last one. The attitude of the American people at that time was that the only good Jap was a dead Jap.
当时的社会氛围远不止是决心摧毁日本帝国那么简单。日本在和平谈判期间对珍珠港发动了偷袭，他们是像穿刺公弗拉德一样残忍、狡诈的暴徒。在征服过程中，他们毫无怜悯之心，因此也不配得到任何怜悯。他们在珍珠港杀害了数千人，在巴丹死亡行军中又杀害了数千人，而在冲绳岛战役中，日军没有抓获任何一名美国战俘，他们将捕获的每一个美国人都杀害了，一个不留。当时美国民众的态度是：“死了的日本人才是好日本人”。
The modern day revisionists and apologists completely ignore several important considerations about the bombing campaign. Up to the moment of Pearl Harbor, the population of the United States was very isolationist. The general opinion was “Let those Europeans stew in their own juices.” We didn’t want to get involved in another Great War. The attack on Pearl Harbor changed that in a single day. By 1945, we had lost hundreds of thousands in dead and wounded fighting a war we did not start or want. We had spent treasure to supply the world with the weapons of war – again - a war we didn’t start or want. The American people were united in their hatred of the Japanese. The Japanese had made an unprovoked attack without a declaration of war. A sneak attack killing thousands of Americans while we were still at peace.
现代修正主义者和辩护者完全忽视了与轰炸行动相关的几个重要因素。在珍珠港事件发生前，美国民众普遍奉行孤立主义，主流观点是“让欧洲人自食其果”，我们不愿卷入另一场世界大战。但珍珠港的袭击在一天之内改变了这一切。到1945年，我们在这场并非由我们发起、也非我们所愿的战争中，已付出了数十万伤亡的代价，还耗费巨资为世界提供战争武器——同样，这是一场我们不愿参与、也未曾挑起的战争。美国民众对日本的仇恨空前一致，因为日本在未宣战的情况下发动了无端攻击，在两国仍处于和平状态时，以偷袭方式杀害了数千名美国人。
The US military knew that Japan was militarily defeated by 1943, and by1944 had no chance for winning the war. Now, even when obviously defeated, they would not surrender. They would commit suicide before surrendering. Their concept of surrender was such that it would dishonor themselves, their families and far worse, their ancestors. When they said, ”Death before dishonor,” they really meant it in a very literal sense. The Japanese mindset was so fundamentally different that we in the West simply could not understand why they wouldn't surrender when they were defeated. Until the Japanese realized it was time to surrender, the war would continue.
美国军方早在1943年就知道日本在军事上已遭重创，到1944年时，日本已毫无获胜可能。然而，即便已明显战败，他们仍拒绝投降，宁愿自杀也不愿屈服。在他们的观念中，投降会玷污自己、家族的荣誉，更严重的是，会玷污祖先的名誉。当他们说“宁死不屈”时，是完全字面意义上的坚定信念。日本人的思维方式与我们西方人截然不同，我们根本无法理解为何他们在战败后仍不愿投降。除非日本主动意识到该投降了，否则战争将持续下去。
It might be noted that General “Stormin’ Norman” Schwartzkopf wrote a paper when he was a cadet that in 1945 the Quartermaster Corps of the Army ordered 750,000 Purple Hearts prior to the invasion because, based on the casualties so far in the Pacific Theater, that is how many US casualties they expected during the invasions. Modern day revisionists should consider what the people on scene, at that time and place expected.
值得一提的是，“诺曼风暴”施瓦茨科普夫将军在军校就读期间曾撰写过一篇论文，其中提到1945年，美国陆军军需兵部队在计划入侵日本前订购了75万枚紫心勋章——基于太平洋战场此前的伤亡情况，这正是他们预计入侵行动中会产生的美军伤亡人数。现代修正主义者应当思考，当时身处那个时代、那个环境的人们是如何预判局势的。
The Japanese had correctly identified the beaches where the Americans would have to invade their islands. The Japanese had planned a final stand with the Ketsugo Operation that was being prepared by a stream of reinforcements from the other islands. Over 5000 aircraft and a million gallons of fuel had been accumulated in secret caves ready to be launched against the expected invasion fleet. Our photoreconnaissance clearly showed that they were not planning to surrender, but to fight to the bitter end. They had thousands of cannon and machine guns aimed at those beaches.
日本已准确预判到美军将登陆的海滩位置，并计划通过“决号作战”进行最后抵抗——他们不断从其他岛屿调派援军，积极备战。日军在秘密洞穴中囤积了超过5000架飞机和100万加仑汽油，随时准备对抗预期中的入侵舰队。我们的航空侦察清晰显示，他们毫无投降之意，而是要战斗到最后一刻，数千门大炮和机枪已瞄准了那些登陆海滩。
The fire bombings of the cities had killed far more people than the atomic bombs did, but the atomic bombs had become a change in quantity that was a change in quality. Even at the very end, it was only the direct intervention of the Emperor who only just barely prevailed over the military who wanted to fight on.
此前对日本城市的燃烧弹轰炸造成的死亡人数远超过原子弹，但原子弹带来的伤亡规模变化，实则引发了质的改变。即便到了战争最后时刻，也是在天皇直接干预下，才勉强压制住了主张继续作战的军方势力。
There were also other reasons to end the war as quickly as possible. The Japanese were running out of food and we knew that orders had gone out to kill all prisoners of war. The Japanese held 168,000 prisoners of war! In fact, in preparation for that event, the Japanese had forced the POWs to dig trenches for their own graves. It was certain that when we started to invade the home islands, all the prisoners in Japanese hands would be massacred.
此外，还有其他必须尽快结束战争的原因。日本当时已濒临粮食枯竭，而我们得知，日军已下达处决所有战俘的命令——当时日本关押着16.8万名战俘！事实上，为执行这一命令，日军已强迫战俘挖掘用于掩埋自己的壕沟。可以肯定的是，一旦我们开始入侵日本本土，所有在日军手中的战俘都将遭到屠杀。
Besides the prisoners of war, there were also tens of thousands of civilian internees who would undoubtedly be slaughtered. In addition, there were hundreds of thousands of Japanese troops scattered throughout Asia as garrison troops. They had to be ordered to surrender or they could have created a hundred Nanking's when the invasion took place. So there was more than simply defeating the Japanese Army, there had to be a direction of surrender, or at least to stop fighting.
除战俘外，还有数万平民被关押，他们无疑也会遭到屠杀。此外，还有数十万日军作为驻军分散在亚洲各地，必须有明确的投降命令传达给他们，否则在入侵行动开始后，他们可能会制造出上百个“南京大屠杀”式的惨案。因此，我们的目标不仅仅是击败日本军队，更需要让他们明确投降方向，至少停止抵抗。
The terrible possibility of an American” Lost Generation” like that of England and France must have been one of the reasons why President Truman sanctioned the use of the atomic bombs. He was a combat proven officer in WWI and would rather drop the bombs than lose the lives of his troops.
杜鲁门总统批准使用原子弹，原因之一必定是担心美国会像英国和法国那样，出现“迷惘的一代”——这一后果不堪设想。他曾是一战中经过实战检验的军官，宁愿投放原子弹，也不愿让自己的士兵牺牲。
Mitsuo Fuchida, the pilot who guided the first wave of Japanese planes in the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, met Paul Tibbets, the pilot of the Enola Gay, who had dropped the bomb on Hiroshima. He told Paul, “You did the right thing. You know the Japanese attitude of that time, how fanatic they were. They’d die for the Emperor. Every man woman and child would resist the invasion with sticks and stones if necessary.”
曾率领第一波日军飞机偷袭珍珠港的飞行员渊田美津雄，后来与驾驶“埃诺拉·盖伊”号轰炸机在广岛投下原子弹的保罗·蒂贝茨会面。他对保罗说：“你做得对。你了解当时日本人的态度，他们是多么狂热，愿意为天皇献出生命。必要时，每一个男人、女人和孩子都会拿起棍棒和石头抵抗入侵。”
The Japanese have a saying that sometimes the greatest mercy is to show no mercy. We showed no mercy and saved millions of lives!
日本人有句谚语：有时最大的仁慈就是毫不留情。我们当时的“毫不留情”，拯救了数百万人的生命！
Steven Haddock
LL.B. degree, 25 years in litigation, administrative law, collections, bankruptcy and professional regulation
史蒂文·哈多克 法学学士学位，拥有25年诉讼、行政法、债务催收、破产及职业监管领域从业经验
Originally Answered: What would happen if the US didn't drop the atomic bomb on Japan?
最初回答：若美国未向日本投放原子弹，会发生什么？
I am often astonished that people miss the obvious.
And the obvious here… is the Soviet unx.
我常常感到惊讶，人们竟然忽略了一个显而易见的关键点。
而这个关键点……就是苏联。
It isn’t discussed much because the war did end in August 1945, but one of the things that Truman considered when dropping the bomb was the Soviet commitment to attacking Japan. The Americans knew Soviet intervention was coming, and when. Stalin wanted a cut of Japan and the Americans knew that.
这一点很少被提及，因为战争确实在1945年8月结束了，但杜鲁门决定投放原子弹时，考量因素之一便是苏联承诺进攻日本的事宜。美国人事先知晓苏联即将介入，也清楚介入的时间点——斯大林想要在日本分一杯羹，这一点美国人心知肚明。
The same day the second bomb dropped, the Soviet unx attacked Japanese forces in Manchuria. As part of that, they captured the Manchurian emperor Henry Pu Yi, and hooked up with Chinese communists in Northeast China, further destabilizing China’s internal struggles. After the Japanese surrender, Russia stayed in Manchuria until the Chinese communist takeover, handed over Pu Yi to the communists, and patted themselves on the back for a job well done.
第二颗原子弹投放的当天，苏联便对驻扎在中国东北的日军发动了进攻。在此过程中，他们俘获了伪满洲国皇帝溥仪，并与中国东北地区的***取得联系，进一步加剧了中国内部斗争的动荡局势。日本投降后，苏联在中国东北一直驻军至***接管该地区，随后将溥仪移交给***，并为自己“圆满完成任务”而自鸣得意。
And in 1945, Korea was also under Japanese control. Guess who took the opportunity to send troops there too. Yep, the Soviet unx.
And in the subsequent peace treaty, the Soviets claimed some of Japan’s smaller islands.
The longer the war against Japan goes on, the more Japanese territory goes to the Soviet unx.
1945年时，朝鲜半岛同样处于日本控制之下。猜猜谁也趁机向那里派遣了军队？没错，就是苏联。
在之后的和平条约中，苏联还侵占了日本的部分小岛。
对日本的战争持续时间越长，苏联侵占的日本领土就会越多。
Well look at that! Hokkaido, or “Soviet Japan” is right off the coast of Russia. It’s incredibly close to Sakhalin Island, which gives the Soviets an even closer staging point. It’s right near Vladivostok, the primary Soviet Pacific naval base.
你看！北海道（或称“苏联日本”）紧邻俄罗斯海岸，与库页岛相距极近——这为苏联提供了一个更近的军事集结点，且该岛就在苏联太平洋主要海军基地符拉迪沃斯托克附近。
Now, the two bombs and the attack by the Soviet unx forced Japan’s hand. Right up until August 9, 1945, the Japanese were pressing the Soviets to mediate a peace between Japan and the United States to avoid an occupation of Japan. The Soviet invasion caught Japan completely off guard and it’s roughly 1 million man army in Manchuria was pretty much completely defenseless. It was also totally useless for a defence of the home islands - there was no navy to get those men back to Japan.
正是这两颗原子弹以及苏联的进攻，迫使日本不得不做出抉择。直到1945年8月9日，日本仍在施压苏联，希望其促成日美之间的和平谈判，以避免日本被占领。而苏联的入侵完全出乎日本意料，其驻扎在中国东北的约100万军队几乎毫无防御能力，且这支部队对日本本土防御而言毫无用处——当时日本已无海军能将这些士兵撤回本土。
So, even with no bombs, Japan is in a pickle. It’s now fighting a two front war with no fuel or ammunition. Although Japanese soldiers were willing to die, when the war got to Okinawa, many of the soldiers refused to put civilian women, children and the elderly at risk, even though they often said they would prefer to die along with the soldiers.
So, if the Japanese are obstinate, the best case scenario is even more of northern Japan goes to the Soviets. They get two occupying forces instead of one.
因此，即便没有原子弹，日本也已陷入困境。当时的日本正陷入双线作战，且燃料和弹药均已耗尽。尽管日本士兵甘愿赴死，但到了冲绳岛战役时，许多士兵拒绝让平民妇女、儿童和老人陷入险境——即便他们常说愿意与士兵一同赴死。
所以，若日本执意顽抗，最好的结果也只是日本北部更多领土被苏联侵占，届时日本将面临两支占领军，而非一支。
Eugene St. Clair Studied History at Southern Illinois University System
尤金·圣克莱尔 曾在南伊利诺伊大学系统研习历史学
It would have been horrible beyond imagination.
Operation Downfall with two components, Operations Coronet and Olympic being the two main components were in the planning stages when Imperial Japan accepted the Potsdam Declaration (the Japanese government has NEVER used the word surrender in referring to the end of the war in the Pacific.)
后果将不堪设想，恐怖至极。
当日本帝国接受《波茨坦公告》时（日本政府在提及太平洋战争结束时，从未使用过“投降”一词），“没落行动”正处于规划阶段——该行动包含两个主要部分，即“王冠行动”和“奥林匹克行动”。
The Japanese were not sending up fighter aircraft in the last month or so of the war, preferring to hoard their aviation gasoline. They had thousands of aircraft, including manned rockets to attack Allied ships, specifically the transports. There might have been even some jet aircraft based upon the German ME262.
There were thousands of speed boats loaded with explosives ready to be sent out to ram Allied warships. In addition there were divers equipped with explosive mines to strike the landing craft as they tried to land their troops.
战争最后一个月左右，日本不再出动战斗机，而是选择囤积航空汽油。他们当时拥有数千架飞机，包括用于攻击盟军船只（尤其是运输舰）的有人驾驶火箭弹，甚至可能还有基于德国ME262战机研发的喷气式飞机。
日本当时还部署了数千艘装满炸药的快艇，随时准备出动撞击盟军战舰；此外，还有配备爆炸水雷的潜水员，计划在盟军登陆艇运送士兵登陆时对其发起攻击。
Civilians including older men and women, children some as young as 10 were to be used in mass attacks equipped with gardening tools or pikes, with metal stakes made from metal scavenged from American bombs and aircraft.
Even after the first atomic weapon, the Japanese were going to issue white sheets to the soldiers and civilians to protect against the flash from the bomb. Clearly madness.
日本计划动员平民参与大规模攻击，包括老年男女以及年仅10岁的儿童，他们的武器是园艺工具、长矛，或是用从美国炸弹和飞机残骸中回收的金属制成的尖桩。
即便在第一颗原子弹爆炸后，日本仍计划向士兵和平民发放白布，声称可抵御原子弹的闪光——这显然是荒谬至极的做法。
There was the possibility of biological or chemical warfare, as they had conducted both in China for years. This is probably slight as several high level officers removed the weapons from the control of subordinates prior to the end of the war. One Army officer clearly forbade its use (especially after the acceptance of the Potsdam Declaration) as it would cause Japan to be the scorn of the international community and cause a fight between microbes and humans that would never end.
日本此前在中国实施了多年的生物战和化学战，因此当时存在其使用这类武器的可能性。但这种可能性或许不大，因为战争结束前，已有多名高级军官将这些武器从下属手中收回。其中一名陆军军官明确禁止使用生化武器（尤其是在接受《波茨坦公告》后），认为这会让日本成为国际社会的公敌，并引发一场永无止境的“微生物与人的战争”。
Truman who had served in World War I and saw the futility of it was also against chemical and biological weapons and forbade its use in the invasion.
It should also be noted that the American embargo of the island had reduced its food stocks to an extremely low level and people were indeed starving to death. It has been estimated that most of Japan would be at starvation levels by December. Now why would starving millions of women and children to death is preferable to the Atomic bombs is beyond my comprehension. The high command and the Emperor would not be starving that is definite.
杜鲁门曾参加过第一次世界大战，亲眼目睹了战争的徒劳无益，他同样反对使用生化武器，并禁止在入侵行动中使用这类武器。
还需注意的是，美国对日本的封锁已使其粮食储备降至极低水平，当时确实有民众在挨饿致死。据估计，到12月时，日本大部分地区将陷入饥荒。我实在无法理解，为何让数百万妇女和儿童饿死，会比投放原子弹更可取——可以肯定的是，日本最高指挥部和天皇绝不会挨饿。
The US had 1 million purple hearts made in anticipation of the invasion.* That is how dire it was supposed to be. More US military personnel would have been killed in taking Japan than in the rest of the war up to that point. It is estimated that there would be 300,000 American deaths alone and 1 million casualties. Estimates were of 1 to 20 million civilian and military deaths.
美国为筹备此次入侵，提前制作了100万枚紫心勋章*。由此可见当时局势的严峻程度。攻占日本所导致的美军阵亡人数，将超过此前战争中所有美军阵亡人数的总和。据估计，仅美军死亡人数就将达到30万，伤亡总数达100万；而日本军民死亡人数预计将在100万至2000万之间。
I can’t even imagine the PTSD that would occur to Allied veterans that had to mow down waves of women and children trying to attack their positions with gardening tools and pikes. Just plain insanity. That is why the atomic weapons as horrific as they were, paled in comparison to the deaths and suffering that would have occurred with an invasion. And if an embargo was used, how many people would have starved? The Atomic weapons and the invasion of Manchuria by the Soviets were critical in the ending of the war.
我甚至无法想象，那些被迫射杀一波又一波手持园艺工具和长矛、试图攻击其阵地的妇女和儿童的盟军老兵，会遭受怎样的创伤后应激障碍（PTSD）——这简直是彻头彻尾的疯狂。正因如此，尽管原子弹的破坏力极为恐怖，但与入侵日本可能造成的死亡和苦难相比，仍相形见绌。而如果仅依靠封锁，又会有多少人饿死？原子弹的投放以及苏联对中国东北的入侵，是促成战争结束的关键因素。
Frank DuncanBS. Chemistry, 20 years an RSO, Radiological training from Homeland Security
弗兰克·邓肯 化学学士学位，担任辐射安全官（RSO）20年，接受过美国国土安全部辐射相关培训
Originally Answered: What would happen if we never nuked Japan?
最初回答：如果我们从未对日本使用核武器，会发生什么？
There was a debate about whether to use the bomb or not. Should they forgo the use of the bomb, and use the alternative: invade. Invasion was estimated to cost up to a million US casualties in dead and wounded. Operation Downfall was planned as two sequential invasions. Operation Olympic which was to capture the island of Kyushu beginning in October 1945, and Operation Coronet the following spring on the island of Honshu.
当时关于是否使用原子弹存在一场争论：是放弃使用原子弹，转而采用另一种方案——登陆入侵？据估计，入侵行动将导致多达100万美军伤亡（阵亡+受伤）。“落日行动”被规划为两次连续的入侵：1945年10月启动“奥林匹克行动”，旨在攻占九州岛；次年春季发起“王冠行动”，进攻本州岛。
Consider the effect such a decision to NOT use the bomb would have had in the United States. How could anyone tell an American mother that the United States let her son be killed because our new weapon was too powerful? Ask any mother if she felt that it was OK for her child to die because we were afraid to use this new weapon. Tell any mother that we let her son be killed because we didn’t want to be too mean to the Japanese.
试想一下，若决定不使用原子弹，这会对美国产生何种影响？谁能去告诉一位美国母亲，她的儿子牺牲是因为我们的新武器威力太强？问问任何一位母亲，她是否能接受自己的孩子因我们不敢使用这种新武器而丧生？告诉任何一位母亲，我们让她的儿子牺牲是因为不想对日本人过于“刻薄”？
The spirit of the time was much more than determined to eliminate the Japanese Empire. The Japanese had made a sneak attack on Pearl Harbor while in the middle of peace talks. They were duplicitous, brutal animals that were as cruel as Vlad the Impaler. They had shown no mercy whatsoever in their conquests and so deserved none. On Okinawa, the Japanese did not take a single American prisoner. They killed every single American they captured. Every last one. The attitude of the time was that the only good Jap was a dead Jap.
当时的社会氛围远不止是决心摧毁日本帝国。日本在和平谈判期间对珍珠港发动了偷袭，他们是像穿刺公弗拉德（中世纪罗马尼亚暴君，以残忍著称）一样狡诈、残暴的暴徒。在征服过程中，他们毫无怜悯之心，因此也不配得到任何宽恕。冲绳岛战役中，日军未抓获任何一名美国战俘，他们将捕获的每一个美国人都杀害了，一个不留。当时的普遍态度是：“死日本人才是好日本人”。
The modern day revisionists and apologists completely ignore several important things about dropping the bombs. Up to the moment of Pearl Harbor, the population of the United States was very isolationist. We didn’t want to get involved in another Great War. The attack on Pearl Harbor changed that in a single day. By 1945, American people were sick and tired of a war that had been thrust on them. We had lost hundreds of thousands in dead and wounded fighting a war we did not start or want. We had spent treasure to supply the world with the weapons of war – again- a war we didn’t start or want.
现代修正主义者和辩护者完全忽视了与投放原子弹相关的几个关键事实。珍珠港事件发生前，美国民众普遍奉行孤立主义，不愿卷入另一场世界大战。但珍珠港的袭击在一天之内改变了这一切。到1945年，美国民众已对这场强加于身的战争感到厌倦至极——我们在这场非由我们发起、也非我们所愿的战争中付出了数十万伤亡的代价，还耗费巨资为世界提供战争武器，而这同样是一场我们不愿参与、未曾挑起的战争。
The American people were united in their hatred of the Japanese. The Japanese had made an unprovoked attack without a declaration of war. A sneak attack killing thousands of Americans while we were still at peace. Now, even when obviously defeated, they would not surrender. They would commit suicide before surrendering. Their concept of surrender was such that it would dishonor themselves, their families and far worse, their ancestors. When they said, ”Death before dishonor,” they really meant it. The Japanese mindset was so fundamentally different that we in the West simply could not understand why they wouldn't surrender when they were defeated. Until the Japanese realized it was time to quit, the war would continue.
美国民众对日本的仇恨空前一致：日本在未宣战的情况下发动无端攻击，在两国仍处于和平状态时，以偷袭方式杀害了数千名美国人。而即便已明显战败，日本仍拒绝投降，宁愿自杀也不愿屈服。在他们的观念中，投降会玷污自己、家族的荣誉，更严重的是会玷污祖先的名誉。当他们说“宁死不屈”时，是发自内心的坚定信念。日本人的思维方式与西方人存在本质差异，我们根本无法理解为何他们在战败后仍不愿投降——除非日本主动意识到该停止战争，否则战事将持续不断。
It might be noted that General “Stormin’ Norman” Schwartzkopf wrote a paper when he was a cadet that in 1945 the Quartermaster Corps of the Army ordered 750,000 Purple Hearts prior to the invasion because, based on the casualties so far in the Pacific Theater, that is how many US casualties they expected during the invasions. Modern day revisionists should consider what the people on scene, at that time and place expected.
值得一提的是，“诺曼风暴”施瓦茨科普夫将军在军校就读期间曾撰写过一篇论文，其中提到1945年，美国陆军军需兵部队在计划入侵日本前订购了75万枚紫心勋章——基于太平洋战场此前的伤亡情况，这正是他们预计入侵行动中会产生的美军伤亡人数。现代修正主义者应当思考，当时身处那个时代、那个环境的人们是如何预判局势的。
The Japanese had correctly identified the beaches where the Americans would have to invade. Our photoreconnaissance clearly showed that they were not planning to surrender, but to fight to the bitter end and they had thousands of cannon and machineguns aimed at them. The fire bombings of the cities had killed far more people than the atomic bombs did, but the atomic bombs had become a change in quantity that was a change in quality. Even at the very end, it was only the direct intervention of the Emperor who only barely prevailed over the military who wanted to fight on.
日本已准确预判到美军的登陆海滩位置。我们的航空侦察清晰显示，他们毫无投降之意，而是要战斗到最后一刻，数千门大炮和机枪已瞄准了这些登陆点。此前对日本城市的燃烧弹轰炸造成的死亡人数远超过原子弹，但原子弹带来的伤亡规模变化，实则引发了质的改变。即便到了战争最后时刻，也是在天皇直接干预下，才勉强压制住了主张继续作战的军方势力。
There were also other reasons to end the war as quickly as possible. The Japanese were running out of food and we knew that orders had gone out to kill all prisoners of war. It was certain that when we started to invade the home islands, all our prisoners would be massacred. In addition, there were hundreds of thousands of Japanese troops scattered throughout Asia as garrison troops. They had to be ordered to surrender or they could have created a hundred Nanking's when the invasion took place. So there was more than simply defeating the Japanese Army, there had to be a direction of surrender, or at least to stop fighting.
此外，还有其他必须尽快结束战争的原因。日本当时已濒临粮食枯竭，而我们得知，日军已下达处决所有战俘的命令——一旦我们开始入侵日本本土，所有在日军手中的盟军战俘都将遭到屠杀。同时，还有数十万日军作为驻军分散在亚洲各地，必须有明确的投降命令传达给他们，否则在入侵行动开始后，他们可能会制造出上百个“南京大屠杀”式的惨案。因此，我们的目标不仅仅是击败日本军队，更需要让他们明确投降方向，至少停止抵抗。
The terrible possibility of an American ” Lost Generation” like that of England and France must have been one of the reasons why President Truman sanctioned the use of the bombs. He was a combat proven officer in WWI and would rather drop the bombs than lose the lives of his troops.
杜鲁门总统批准使用原子弹，原因之一必定是担心美国会像英国和法国那样，出现“迷惘的一代”——这一后果不堪设想。他曾是一战中经过实战检验的军官，宁愿投放原子弹，也不愿让自己的士兵牺牲。
Their use saved not just many, many American lives, it also saved Japanese lives. President Truman had just two alternatives on his desk: Invade, or use the bomb. End of list. Invade and lose up to a million dead or wounded, and up to 20,000,000 Japanese dead, or drop the bombs.
使用原子弹不仅拯救了无数美国人的生命，也拯救了日本民众的生命。杜鲁门总统当时面前只有两个选择：要么入侵，要么使用原子弹，别无其他。入侵将导致多达100万美军伤亡、2000万日本民众死亡，而投放原子弹则能避免这一结局。
So, with the information at hand, what would have happened? There would have been a political explosion in the US when people found out that we could have saved up to a million US casualties by dropping the bombs, and didn’t. The Japanese population would have been decimated. Russia would have occupied Hokkaido probably even till today. All of our prisoners of war would have been massacred. There would have been massacres of hundreds of thousands, if not millions more Chinese.
Those are the results of NOT dropping the bombs. And that is why they were dropped.
那么，结合当时掌握的信息，若不投放原子弹会发生什么？当美国民众发现，我们本可以通过投放原子弹拯救多达100万美军的生命，却选择了放弃时，国内必将爆发政治动荡；日本民众将遭遇毁灭性打击；俄罗斯很可能会占领北海道，甚至持续至今；所有盟军战俘都将被屠杀；还会有数十万乃至数百万中国人惨遭日军屠戮。
这些便是不投放原子弹的后果——这也是我们最终决定投放原子弹的原因。
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