为什么美国对芯片的制裁无法阻止中国……
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@serriajohn
Invention is a concept stock that needs to be converted into cash （profits)through production and market.
At present, the largest production base and market comes from China. China's scientific and technological inventions will be more practical.
For example, China's automobile production is 30 million vehicles, and the United States' automobile production is 10 million vehicles. Even if there is a new invention, it is meaningless if it cannot achieve profits through prouduction and market in China.
Why are Germany and Tesla investing in China? Because inventions must deilver profits.also, these companies have to compete against rivals from Chinese domestic players too, such as BYD etc..
Chip industry is the same, China will make self sufficient chips on their own as well as US. the losers will be S Korea and Taiwan , because their domestic market is small. USA shall sell more advanced chips to China to gain market share, and focus on making chips inside US soil. To be honst, USA did not produce high end chips in homeland is a failure. and this is what US government police shall be ---- to move TSMS and Samsung chip manufacturing into US homeland as soon as possible, while subsidizing Intel as much as possible.. this is done, but in slow move, not efficient enough.
发明是概念股，它需要通过生产和市场转化为现金（利润）。
目前，最大的生产基地和市场来自中国，中国的科技发明将更加实用。
例如，中国的汽车产量是3000万辆，美国的汽车产量是1000万辆。即使有新发明，如果不能在中国通过生产和市场实现盈利，也是毫无意义的。
为什么德国和特斯拉要在中国投资？因为发明必须带来利润。此外，这些公司还必须与比亚迪等中国国内的竞争对手竞争。
芯片行业也是一样，中国将和美国一样，在芯片生产商自给自足。韩国和台湾（地区）将是输家，因为它们的内部市场很小。美国将向中国出售更先进的芯片以获得市场份额并专注于在美国本土生产芯片。老实说，美国没有在本土生产高端芯片是失败的，这就是美国政府警察应该----尽快将台积电和三星的芯片生产转移到美国本土，同时尽可能多地补贴英特尔的原因。虽然它们已经这样做了，但进展缓慢，效率不够高。
@FabioCapela
An interesting issue is that by sanctioning China, the US is forcing China to develop sanction-proof products — meaning for all such products China is essentially free to completely ignore US sanctions if it wants.
Like, for example, by selling chip-making equipment to Iran or Russia. 28nm is more than enough for all their military needs, and the company making those machines is already as sanctioned as the US can do, so no way to increase the pressure on it short of declaring war on China.
一个有趣的问题是美国在制裁中国的同时，也在迫使中国开发不受制裁的产品--这意味着对于所有这些产品，中国基本上可以完全无视美国的制裁。
例如，向伊朗或俄罗斯出售芯片制造设备。28纳米制程足以满足他们所有的军事需求，而制造这些设备的公司已经受到了美国力所能及的所有制裁，因此，除了向中国宣战之外，美国根本无法增加对它的压力。
@18000rpm
The Mate 60 CPU is manufactured using ASML equipment China bought and stockpiled BEFORE the sanctions took effect. Your chart of the global semiconductor sales showing China #1 with 30+% is also highly misleading because NOT ONE CHIP of the highest tech was made in China. Not a single chip. China mostly makes low to mid-tier chips that are often decades behind the cutting edge. Also, not a single country is able to build the most leading edge chips - it requires ASML EUV equipment from the Netherlands, EDA software from the US such as Synopsys and Cadence, and process know-how from Taiwan and South Korea (TSMC, UMC, Samsung). None of those countries alone is able to make 3nm chips without the cooperation of the other countries. So for China to develop the entire production chain on its own is going to take decades.
Mate 60的CPU是使用ASML的设备制造的，中国在制裁生效之前就已经购买并储备了这些设备。你的全球半导体销售额图表显示中国以30%以上的份额位居第一，这也极具误导性，因为没有一块最先进的芯片是中国制造的，一块都没有。中国制造的大多是往往落后于尖端技术几十年的中低端芯片。此外，没有一个国家能够制造出最先进的芯片--因为这需要荷兰ASML的EUV设备、美国的EDA软件（如Synopsys和Cadence）以及台湾（地区）和韩国（台积电、联电、三星）的工艺技术。如果没有其他国家的合作，这些国家/地区都无法单独制造3纳米芯片。因此，中国要想独立开发整个生产链将需要几十年的时间。
@dark_fire_ice
Not only that, but 7nm is the highest possible with the equipment China has access too, and anything smaller is hoarded by the Dutch.
Comparing the CCP smartphone with a western smartphone, and saying it equal, would be like comparing a bolt-action rifle made today with modern assault rifles
不仅如此，7纳米是中国拥有的设备所能达到的最高水平，生产更小制程芯片的设备都被荷兰人囤积起来了。
把中G的智能手机和西方的智能手机相提并论，就好比把今天制造的栓动步枪和现代突击步枪相提并论一样。
@manoo2056
The most important part of the video is China being kicked out of the ISS and 20 years later having their own space station.
Do not overestimate EUV, high NA machinery. Asml ended up buying a USA company to use this technology. Are you sure China won't have something even better in 20 years? If they keep investing and creating a less stressful environment to work than that in USA (I would never work in USA, I did the numbers and it is not worthy with family) they will be create a better technology. Just look to the story of EUV, collaboration with universities. It can happen, you just need a lot of money, and explore different paths.
视频中最重要的部分是中国被踢出国际空间站，20年后它拥有了自己的空间站。
不要高估EUV这类设备。ASML最终通过收购一家美国公司获得了这项技术，你确定20年后中国不会拥有更好的技术？如果他们继续投资，创造一个比美国更轻松的工作环境（我永远不会去美国工作，我做过权衡，去那里工作对家人来说不值得），他们就会创造出更好的技术。看看与大学合作的EUV的故事就知道了，这是有可能实现的，只是需要大量的资金和探索不同的道路即可。
@SimonCU
I think before America said China cannot make 7nm chips and would not be able to use 5G in their Huawei phones for another few years.. but all of the sudden they did it. Yes we can all hope China cannot do things.. but hoping is not reality. We just have to accept that China will break through challenges. It's not difficult for them.. they did it for the 7nm so soon they can do 5nm .. they already using 5nm in their laptops from Hauwei. So likely 3nm will be within 1-2 years. Don't underestimate China. US underestimated them and they shocked the world with their 7nm chips.
我记得之前美国说中国无法制造7纳米芯片，华为手机几年内都无法使用5G通信，但突然之间他们就做到了。是的，我们都希望中国做不到，但希望不是现实，我们只能接受中国将突破挑战的事实。这对他们来说这并不难，他们已经做到了7纳米，所以很快就能做到5纳米，他们已经在华为的笔记本电脑中使用5纳米芯片了。因此，3纳米很可能会在1-2年内实现。不要低估中国。美国低估了中国，但他们的7纳米芯片震惊了世界。
@jamesshen401
Sanctions do work. Export bans were never meant to block Chinese progress, but slow it down so American innovation can sustain a lead. If China cannot take the lead, and the associated commercial profits, the government will have to permanently sink capital just to keep up with Western progress. This directly leads to unsubstainable under-investment in both talent and capital in other economic sectors. The Soviet unx's inability to compete technically in any non-military field is a good example of this.
制裁确实有效。出口禁令从来都不是为了阻止中国的进步，而是为了延缓中国的进步，以便美国的创新能够保持领先。如果中国无法取得领先地位，也就无法获得相关的商业利润，政府就不得不长期投入资本以跟上西方的进步，这将直接导致对其他经济部门的人才和资本投资不足且难以为继。苏联无法在所有非军事领域与美国进行技术竞争就是一个很好的例子。
@789know
Tho in this case it is way different than under USSR. U need to know that trailing node actually dominated semi conductor export market which Chinese is one of the leader of. (Trailing node is actually one of the main money maker than usual cutting edge that's get the news spotlights)
More over Chinese can still acquire many of thr top end chip for consumer market etc.
China in consumer space is in way better position than USSR and some of the western power.
Also unlike back in USSR Chinese is rather ahead and close to peer in many other sector.
但在目前的这种情况下，与苏联时期的情况大不相同。要知道，落后制程实际上主导着半导体出口市场，而中国是半导体出口市场的领导者之一(落后制程而不是通常的尖端产品实际上才是主要的赚钱工具之一，而后者是新闻的焦点）。
更重要的是中国仍然可以获得许多面向消费市场的高端芯片。
中国在消费领域的地位远远高于苏联和一些西方强国。
此外，与那个时代的苏联不同，中国在许多其他领域都遥遥领先。
@Milo-id9qd
USSR's problems stemmed more from the some very poor decisions by certain leaders Krushcev (hope i spelled it right), followed by a general apathy starting with late 60s, which they found themselves incapable of solving, most of the leadership of the country refusing to see how the problem might be them.
Russians studied what happened there for quite a while, and probably China also took some lessons.
苏联的问题更多源于某些领导人赫鲁晓夫（希望我没拼错）的一些非常错误的决定以及从上世纪60年代末开始的普遍的冷漠，他们发现自己无力解决这些问题，国家的大多数领导人拒绝看到问题可能出在他们身上。
俄罗斯人花了很长时间研究了那里发生的事情，中国可能也从中吸取了一些教训。
@ganboonmeng5370
What is happening...company like AsML...will lose market share...With China established as their biggest market.... losing market share means..less money for R&D..over time...meanwhile China is recruiting...Chinese talent..all over the world...to bridge the gap...I heard Thousands of TSMC engineers having cross over the Taiwan straits...
正在发生的事情是...像ASML这样的公司...将失去市场份额...随着中国成为其最大的市场....失去市场份额意味着..随着时间的推移，用于研发的资金减少...与此同时，中国正在招募...遍布世界各地的华裔人才...以弥合差距...我听说数以千计的台积电工程师已经跨越了台湾（地区）海峡......
@havencat9337
its crazy that they think they can stop 1,4 bil people that are super hard working and are the country that consumes the most chips by far... they will def win this tech restrictions and unfair polices.
美国认为自己可以阻止14亿超级勤劳的人民，而且中国是迄今为止消耗芯片最多的国家，这太疯狂了......他们一定会赢得这场技术限制和不公平的政策导致的战争。
@moonknight2245
Funny things is Lithography technology can produce upto 1nm or 1atom size chipset After reaching 1nm lithography technology will no longer relavent And China is also working with new kind of chip making technology like the USA also working on it. If China success in that, it will be game over.
有趣的是，光刻技术可以生产高达1纳米或1个原子大小的芯片组，达到1纳米后，光刻技术将不再重要。就像美国一样，中国也在研究新型芯片制造技术。如果中国在这方面成功了，一切就都结束了。
@bailvik6390
I would have liked you put in some info on how much the semiconductor industry in China has been rocked by scandals.
Many Ceo/owners Coo has been arrested and some has been executed (or death row) we dont know atm.
This is due to many companies buying bulk US chips and scraping the numbers / delid the cpu and placing their own brand on it. This has led to many companies going under/taken over by the government.
我希望你能提供一些关于中国半导体行业丑闻的信息。
许多公司的首席执行官/老板已经被捕，有些已经被处死（或判处死刑），目前我们还不清楚。
这是因为许多公司大量购买美国芯片，然后磨掉芯片上的数字/标签并贴上自己的品牌。这导致许多公司破产或被政府接管。
@lorenzcarvajal8039
This. I don't know why this channel is so confident about China's semi conductor industry, when a lot of other channels say otherwise (and most of those channel is even Chinese people owned). Some of the top companies are even doing farming and poultry in the sidelines just to afloat.
我不明白为什么这个频道对中国的半导体行业如此有信心，而很多其他的频道却不这么认为（而且这些频道中的大多数甚至都是中国人拥有的）。中国的一些顶级公司甚至在从事农业和养殖业以维持生计。
@RickOShay
I think it should be self-evident that in this case, sanctions will simply strengthen China's ability and resolve and ultimately make them stronger and even more dominant. They have literally millions of computer and electrical engineers.
The world is big enough for the US and China to coexist harmoniously and collaboratively.
Above all, and more importantly, we all face a far bigger - existential problem right now - climate change - which demands international cooperation.
我认为不言而喻的是在这种情况下，制裁只会增强中国的能力和决心，最终使他们变得更强大、更有统治力，因为他们拥有数以百万计的计算机工程师和电气工程师。
世界之大，足以让中美两国和谐共存、合作共赢。
更重要的是我们现在都面临着一个更大的生存问题--气候变化，这需要国际合作。
@nhatmnguyen93
SMCI poached the head engineer, the person who was behind TSMC successes for 1 mil salary. imagine letting your key person go for just 1 mil salary, an absolute clown show from TSMC.
中芯国际以100万的薪水挖走了台积电成功背后的首席工程师。试想一下，台积电以100万的薪水就放走了关键人物，这绝对是一场吝啬鬼表演。
@triadwarfare
Then again, he is only one guy. They still need to get key employees to work for them as well as the tech necessary to have a good yield.
话又说回来，他只是一个人，他们仍然需要招募关键的员工，以及获得良好收益所需的技术。
@nhatmnguyen93
@triadwarfare he was the person who turned around TSMC and headstarted many of its research. he also worked for Samsung before, which almost made TSMC lost its 1st position. literally the whole company was built on the back of him.
SMCI is also full of other geniuses but getting that person was huge for China.
@triadwarfare 他是台积电扭亏为盈的功臣，也是台积电许多研究项目的负责人。他之前也曾在三星工作过，这几乎让台积电失去了第一的位置。实际上，整个公司都是靠他建立起来的。
中芯国际也有很多其他的天才，但得到这个人对中国来说意义重大。
@nsng1298
@triadwarfare He brought along a group of engineers and scientists from TSMC and Samsung when he went to work for SMIC. Also, Huawei sent their engineers to work with SMIC. This is not a one-man show.
@triadwarfare 他去中芯国际工作时，带来了一批来自台积电和三星的工程师和科学家。此外，华为也派了工程师到中芯国际工作。这不是一个人的独角戏。
@user-ev9kz5lc2z
@nsng1298 You're talking nonsense! He earns $10 million a year at Samsung, but only $200,000 in China, and gives it all away
@nsng1298 你在胡说八道！他在三星的年薪是1000万美元，但在中国只有20万美元，而且都捐出去了。
@bigmeek4705
WSM is wrong about the apparent lack of small advanced chips being important to military technology. Guided munitions, missiles, aircraft, and lots and lots of smaller bits of military tech depend on them. Everything from advanced communications and location finding equipment, tracking equipment, night vision equipment, anti missile and rocket systems, counter battery systems for artillery, night vision and thermal optics. If it's high dollar and has electricity, it more then likely relies on these chips. Even the note on vehicles like tanks not needing these chips is wrong. You can theoretically produce a shell of a tank without them, the control systems, weapon systems, ammunition, vision, protection systems and communication systems all depend on these chips.
UP主认为小型的先进芯片对军事技术的重要性不大，这种说法是错误的。制导弹药、导弹、飞机以及许多较小的军事技术都依赖于它们。从先进的通信和定位设备、跟踪设备、夜视设备、反导弹和火箭系统、火炮反电池系统、夜视仪到热光学仪器等一切设备都离不开它们。只要是有电的高价设备，都很可能依赖这些芯片。甚至关于坦克等车辆不需要这些芯片的说法也是错误的。理论上，没有这些芯片也能制造出坦克的外壳，但控制系统、武器系统、弹药、视觉、防护系统和通信系统都依赖于这些芯片。
@silentIm
Your smartphone cpu is way more advanced than what is required for military requirements.
Most chips for military are not far off from automobile and industrial applications, produced on cheap 'trailing edge' node, 90 nm or bigger. These chips withstand more abuse, heat, vibration, and EM radiation. You see there are many cars from 2000 still run on original ECU, while Imac from the same year has been dead years ago. That kind of reliability is built on older more tested process, buillt on more robust platform.
US sanctions target the wrong node if it is really meant to limit military technology advancement. It is really meant just for the sake limiting Chinese technological advance, like a bully that games the market so its competitor wont surpass.
你的智能手机的CPU比军用要求先进得多。
大多数军用芯片与汽车和工业应用的芯片相差无几，都是在90纳米或更大的廉价的“落后”制程上生产的。这些芯片能承受更多的滥用、高温、振动和电磁辐射。你会发现有许多2000年生产的汽车仍在使用原装的ECU，而同年生产的imac早在几年前就已经报废了。这种可靠性是建立在更古老、更久经考验的工艺上，建立在更耐用的平台上的。
如果美国的制裁真的是为了限制军事技术的进步，那么它针对的是错误的制程。它的真正目的只是为了限制中国的技术进步，就像一个恶霸操纵市场，好让它的竞争对手无法超越。
@xiphoid2011
@silentIm military technology isn't designed using low end chips. The leading tech military equipment all use supercomputers to design and develop. Note that China still hasn't successfully designed a stealth bomber 34 years after US developed it. The end product when built 10 years after they were designed may not use the latest, but they were when it was first designed and developed.
@silentIm 军事技术不是用低端芯片设计的。技术领先的军事装备都是用超级计算机设计研发的。请注意，在美国研发隐形轰炸机34年后，中国仍未成功设计出隐形轰炸机。最终的产品在设计出来10年后制造出来，它可能用的不是最新的芯片，但在最初设计和研发时用的是最新的芯片。
@alanhonlunli
Cutting edge chips are not in military equipment because they are used in R&D. Future military applications are built off current chip technology. It seems like missiles are using old tech, only because it takes years, maybe decades to develop, validate, and manufacture a new design. Your phone with a 2nm chip can overheat and crash, and all you'd end up with is a class action lawsuit. But a new 6th generation jet will need components that are dependable 99.99% of the time, so do the guidance chips in the missiles they fire. The time to market for military equipment is on a whole other scale, but they are always on the cutting edge of what can be produced.
尖端芯片不会用于军事装备，因为它们主要用于研发。未来的军事应用离不开当前的芯片技术。现在的导弹似乎仍在使用旧的技术，这是因为开发、验证和制造一个新的设计需要数年甚至数十年的时间。使用2nm芯片的手机可能会过热和死机，你最终得到的可能只是一场集体诉讼。但新型第六代喷气式飞机需要99.99%可靠的组件，发射导弹的制导芯片也是如此。军事装备的上市时间完全是另一个尺度，但它们始终处于可以生产的前沿。
@ganboonmeng5370
China will over come...so many of the best..in chip design and manufacturing...are Chinese....I understand many many TSmc engineers crossing over..to work in China..
中国将会克服......因为有这么多芯片设计和制造领域的佼佼者都是中国人....，我知道很多台积电的工程师都到中国工作了。
@lucasglowacki4683
It appears that anytime you make something more unattainable the more the other party wants it. And the better they get at subversion. Keep your enemies closer! Collaboration would probably be a better bet. At least you’d know what they’re up to and could only feed them the info you want.
似乎每当你把某件事做得越难以实现时，另一方就会越想得到它，他们也就越善于颠覆。让你的敌人离你更近！合作可能是更好的选择，至少你能知道他们在搞什么鬼，而且只能向他们提供你想给的信息。
Invention is a concept stock that needs to be converted into cash （profits)through production and market.
At present, the largest production base and market comes from China. China's scientific and technological inventions will be more practical.
For example, China's automobile production is 30 million vehicles, and the United States' automobile production is 10 million vehicles. Even if there is a new invention, it is meaningless if it cannot achieve profits through prouduction and market in China.
Why are Germany and Tesla investing in China? Because inventions must deilver profits.also, these companies have to compete against rivals from Chinese domestic players too, such as BYD etc..
Chip industry is the same, China will make self sufficient chips on their own as well as US. the losers will be S Korea and Taiwan , because their domestic market is small. USA shall sell more advanced chips to China to gain market share, and focus on making chips inside US soil. To be honst, USA did not produce high end chips in homeland is a failure. and this is what US government police shall be ---- to move TSMS and Samsung chip manufacturing into US homeland as soon as possible, while subsidizing Intel as much as possible.. this is done, but in slow move, not efficient enough.
发明是概念股，它需要通过生产和市场转化为现金（利润）。
目前，最大的生产基地和市场来自中国，中国的科技发明将更加实用。
例如，中国的汽车产量是3000万辆，美国的汽车产量是1000万辆。即使有新发明，如果不能在中国通过生产和市场实现盈利，也是毫无意义的。
为什么德国和特斯拉要在中国投资？因为发明必须带来利润。此外，这些公司还必须与比亚迪等中国国内的竞争对手竞争。
芯片行业也是一样，中国将和美国一样，在芯片生产商自给自足。韩国和台湾（地区）将是输家，因为它们的内部市场很小。美国将向中国出售更先进的芯片以获得市场份额并专注于在美国本土生产芯片。老实说，美国没有在本土生产高端芯片是失败的，这就是美国政府警察应该----尽快将台积电和三星的芯片生产转移到美国本土，同时尽可能多地补贴英特尔的原因。虽然它们已经这样做了，但进展缓慢，效率不够高。
@FabioCapela
An interesting issue is that by sanctioning China, the US is forcing China to develop sanction-proof products — meaning for all such products China is essentially free to completely ignore US sanctions if it wants.
Like, for example, by selling chip-making equipment to Iran or Russia. 28nm is more than enough for all their military needs, and the company making those machines is already as sanctioned as the US can do, so no way to increase the pressure on it short of declaring war on China.
一个有趣的问题是美国在制裁中国的同时，也在迫使中国开发不受制裁的产品--这意味着对于所有这些产品，中国基本上可以完全无视美国的制裁。
例如，向伊朗或俄罗斯出售芯片制造设备。28纳米制程足以满足他们所有的军事需求，而制造这些设备的公司已经受到了美国力所能及的所有制裁，因此，除了向中国宣战之外，美国根本无法增加对它的压力。
@18000rpm
The Mate 60 CPU is manufactured using ASML equipment China bought and stockpiled BEFORE the sanctions took effect. Your chart of the global semiconductor sales showing China #1 with 30+% is also highly misleading because NOT ONE CHIP of the highest tech was made in China. Not a single chip. China mostly makes low to mid-tier chips that are often decades behind the cutting edge. Also, not a single country is able to build the most leading edge chips - it requires ASML EUV equipment from the Netherlands, EDA software from the US such as Synopsys and Cadence, and process know-how from Taiwan and South Korea (TSMC, UMC, Samsung). None of those countries alone is able to make 3nm chips without the cooperation of the other countries. So for China to develop the entire production chain on its own is going to take decades.
Mate 60的CPU是使用ASML的设备制造的，中国在制裁生效之前就已经购买并储备了这些设备。你的全球半导体销售额图表显示中国以30%以上的份额位居第一，这也极具误导性，因为没有一块最先进的芯片是中国制造的，一块都没有。中国制造的大多是往往落后于尖端技术几十年的中低端芯片。此外，没有一个国家能够制造出最先进的芯片--因为这需要荷兰ASML的EUV设备、美国的EDA软件（如Synopsys和Cadence）以及台湾（地区）和韩国（台积电、联电、三星）的工艺技术。如果没有其他国家的合作，这些国家/地区都无法单独制造3纳米芯片。因此，中国要想独立开发整个生产链将需要几十年的时间。
@dark_fire_ice
Not only that, but 7nm is the highest possible with the equipment China has access too, and anything smaller is hoarded by the Dutch.
Comparing the CCP smartphone with a western smartphone, and saying it equal, would be like comparing a bolt-action rifle made today with modern assault rifles
不仅如此，7纳米是中国拥有的设备所能达到的最高水平，生产更小制程芯片的设备都被荷兰人囤积起来了。
把中G的智能手机和西方的智能手机相提并论，就好比把今天制造的栓动步枪和现代突击步枪相提并论一样。
@manoo2056
The most important part of the video is China being kicked out of the ISS and 20 years later having their own space station.
Do not overestimate EUV, high NA machinery. Asml ended up buying a USA company to use this technology. Are you sure China won't have something even better in 20 years? If they keep investing and creating a less stressful environment to work than that in USA (I would never work in USA, I did the numbers and it is not worthy with family) they will be create a better technology. Just look to the story of EUV, collaboration with universities. It can happen, you just need a lot of money, and explore different paths.
视频中最重要的部分是中国被踢出国际空间站，20年后它拥有了自己的空间站。
不要高估EUV这类设备。ASML最终通过收购一家美国公司获得了这项技术，你确定20年后中国不会拥有更好的技术？如果他们继续投资，创造一个比美国更轻松的工作环境（我永远不会去美国工作，我做过权衡，去那里工作对家人来说不值得），他们就会创造出更好的技术。看看与大学合作的EUV的故事就知道了，这是有可能实现的，只是需要大量的资金和探索不同的道路即可。
@SimonCU
I think before America said China cannot make 7nm chips and would not be able to use 5G in their Huawei phones for another few years.. but all of the sudden they did it. Yes we can all hope China cannot do things.. but hoping is not reality. We just have to accept that China will break through challenges. It's not difficult for them.. they did it for the 7nm so soon they can do 5nm .. they already using 5nm in their laptops from Hauwei. So likely 3nm will be within 1-2 years. Don't underestimate China. US underestimated them and they shocked the world with their 7nm chips.
我记得之前美国说中国无法制造7纳米芯片，华为手机几年内都无法使用5G通信，但突然之间他们就做到了。是的，我们都希望中国做不到，但希望不是现实，我们只能接受中国将突破挑战的事实。这对他们来说这并不难，他们已经做到了7纳米，所以很快就能做到5纳米，他们已经在华为的笔记本电脑中使用5纳米芯片了。因此，3纳米很可能会在1-2年内实现。不要低估中国。美国低估了中国，但他们的7纳米芯片震惊了世界。
@jamesshen401
Sanctions do work. Export bans were never meant to block Chinese progress, but slow it down so American innovation can sustain a lead. If China cannot take the lead, and the associated commercial profits, the government will have to permanently sink capital just to keep up with Western progress. This directly leads to unsubstainable under-investment in both talent and capital in other economic sectors. The Soviet unx's inability to compete technically in any non-military field is a good example of this.
制裁确实有效。出口禁令从来都不是为了阻止中国的进步，而是为了延缓中国的进步，以便美国的创新能够保持领先。如果中国无法取得领先地位，也就无法获得相关的商业利润，政府就不得不长期投入资本以跟上西方的进步，这将直接导致对其他经济部门的人才和资本投资不足且难以为继。苏联无法在所有非军事领域与美国进行技术竞争就是一个很好的例子。
@789know
Tho in this case it is way different than under USSR. U need to know that trailing node actually dominated semi conductor export market which Chinese is one of the leader of. (Trailing node is actually one of the main money maker than usual cutting edge that's get the news spotlights)
More over Chinese can still acquire many of thr top end chip for consumer market etc.
China in consumer space is in way better position than USSR and some of the western power.
Also unlike back in USSR Chinese is rather ahead and close to peer in many other sector.
但在目前的这种情况下，与苏联时期的情况大不相同。要知道，落后制程实际上主导着半导体出口市场，而中国是半导体出口市场的领导者之一(落后制程而不是通常的尖端产品实际上才是主要的赚钱工具之一，而后者是新闻的焦点）。
更重要的是中国仍然可以获得许多面向消费市场的高端芯片。
中国在消费领域的地位远远高于苏联和一些西方强国。
此外，与那个时代的苏联不同，中国在许多其他领域都遥遥领先。
@Milo-id9qd
USSR's problems stemmed more from the some very poor decisions by certain leaders Krushcev (hope i spelled it right), followed by a general apathy starting with late 60s, which they found themselves incapable of solving, most of the leadership of the country refusing to see how the problem might be them.
Russians studied what happened there for quite a while, and probably China also took some lessons.
苏联的问题更多源于某些领导人赫鲁晓夫（希望我没拼错）的一些非常错误的决定以及从上世纪60年代末开始的普遍的冷漠，他们发现自己无力解决这些问题，国家的大多数领导人拒绝看到问题可能出在他们身上。
俄罗斯人花了很长时间研究了那里发生的事情，中国可能也从中吸取了一些教训。
@ganboonmeng5370
What is happening...company like AsML...will lose market share...With China established as their biggest market.... losing market share means..less money for R&D..over time...meanwhile China is recruiting...Chinese talent..all over the world...to bridge the gap...I heard Thousands of TSMC engineers having cross over the Taiwan straits...
正在发生的事情是...像ASML这样的公司...将失去市场份额...随着中国成为其最大的市场....失去市场份额意味着..随着时间的推移，用于研发的资金减少...与此同时，中国正在招募...遍布世界各地的华裔人才...以弥合差距...我听说数以千计的台积电工程师已经跨越了台湾（地区）海峡......
@havencat9337
its crazy that they think they can stop 1,4 bil people that are super hard working and are the country that consumes the most chips by far... they will def win this tech restrictions and unfair polices.
美国认为自己可以阻止14亿超级勤劳的人民，而且中国是迄今为止消耗芯片最多的国家，这太疯狂了......他们一定会赢得这场技术限制和不公平的政策导致的战争。
@moonknight2245
Funny things is Lithography technology can produce upto 1nm or 1atom size chipset After reaching 1nm lithography technology will no longer relavent And China is also working with new kind of chip making technology like the USA also working on it. If China success in that, it will be game over.
有趣的是，光刻技术可以生产高达1纳米或1个原子大小的芯片组，达到1纳米后，光刻技术将不再重要。就像美国一样，中国也在研究新型芯片制造技术。如果中国在这方面成功了，一切就都结束了。
@bailvik6390
I would have liked you put in some info on how much the semiconductor industry in China has been rocked by scandals.
Many Ceo/owners Coo has been arrested and some has been executed (or death row) we dont know atm.
This is due to many companies buying bulk US chips and scraping the numbers / delid the cpu and placing their own brand on it. This has led to many companies going under/taken over by the government.
我希望你能提供一些关于中国半导体行业丑闻的信息。
许多公司的首席执行官/老板已经被捕，有些已经被处死（或判处死刑），目前我们还不清楚。
这是因为许多公司大量购买美国芯片，然后磨掉芯片上的数字/标签并贴上自己的品牌。这导致许多公司破产或被政府接管。
@lorenzcarvajal8039
This. I don't know why this channel is so confident about China's semi conductor industry, when a lot of other channels say otherwise (and most of those channel is even Chinese people owned). Some of the top companies are even doing farming and poultry in the sidelines just to afloat.
我不明白为什么这个频道对中国的半导体行业如此有信心，而很多其他的频道却不这么认为（而且这些频道中的大多数甚至都是中国人拥有的）。中国的一些顶级公司甚至在从事农业和养殖业以维持生计。
@RickOShay
I think it should be self-evident that in this case, sanctions will simply strengthen China's ability and resolve and ultimately make them stronger and even more dominant. They have literally millions of computer and electrical engineers.
The world is big enough for the US and China to coexist harmoniously and collaboratively.
Above all, and more importantly, we all face a far bigger - existential problem right now - climate change - which demands international cooperation.
我认为不言而喻的是在这种情况下，制裁只会增强中国的能力和决心，最终使他们变得更强大、更有统治力，因为他们拥有数以百万计的计算机工程师和电气工程师。
世界之大，足以让中美两国和谐共存、合作共赢。
更重要的是我们现在都面临着一个更大的生存问题--气候变化，这需要国际合作。
@nhatmnguyen93
SMCI poached the head engineer, the person who was behind TSMC successes for 1 mil salary. imagine letting your key person go for just 1 mil salary, an absolute clown show from TSMC.
中芯国际以100万的薪水挖走了台积电成功背后的首席工程师。试想一下，台积电以100万的薪水就放走了关键人物，这绝对是一场吝啬鬼表演。
@triadwarfare
Then again, he is only one guy. They still need to get key employees to work for them as well as the tech necessary to have a good yield.
话又说回来，他只是一个人，他们仍然需要招募关键的员工，以及获得良好收益所需的技术。
@nhatmnguyen93
@triadwarfare he was the person who turned around TSMC and headstarted many of its research. he also worked for Samsung before, which almost made TSMC lost its 1st position. literally the whole company was built on the back of him.
SMCI is also full of other geniuses but getting that person was huge for China.
@triadwarfare 他是台积电扭亏为盈的功臣，也是台积电许多研究项目的负责人。他之前也曾在三星工作过，这几乎让台积电失去了第一的位置。实际上，整个公司都是靠他建立起来的。
中芯国际也有很多其他的天才，但得到这个人对中国来说意义重大。
@nsng1298
@triadwarfare He brought along a group of engineers and scientists from TSMC and Samsung when he went to work for SMIC. Also, Huawei sent their engineers to work with SMIC. This is not a one-man show.
@triadwarfare 他去中芯国际工作时，带来了一批来自台积电和三星的工程师和科学家。此外，华为也派了工程师到中芯国际工作。这不是一个人的独角戏。
@user-ev9kz5lc2z
@nsng1298 You're talking nonsense! He earns $10 million a year at Samsung, but only $200,000 in China, and gives it all away
@nsng1298 你在胡说八道！他在三星的年薪是1000万美元，但在中国只有20万美元，而且都捐出去了。
@bigmeek4705
WSM is wrong about the apparent lack of small advanced chips being important to military technology. Guided munitions, missiles, aircraft, and lots and lots of smaller bits of military tech depend on them. Everything from advanced communications and location finding equipment, tracking equipment, night vision equipment, anti missile and rocket systems, counter battery systems for artillery, night vision and thermal optics. If it's high dollar and has electricity, it more then likely relies on these chips. Even the note on vehicles like tanks not needing these chips is wrong. You can theoretically produce a shell of a tank without them, the control systems, weapon systems, ammunition, vision, protection systems and communication systems all depend on these chips.
UP主认为小型的先进芯片对军事技术的重要性不大，这种说法是错误的。制导弹药、导弹、飞机以及许多较小的军事技术都依赖于它们。从先进的通信和定位设备、跟踪设备、夜视设备、反导弹和火箭系统、火炮反电池系统、夜视仪到热光学仪器等一切设备都离不开它们。只要是有电的高价设备，都很可能依赖这些芯片。甚至关于坦克等车辆不需要这些芯片的说法也是错误的。理论上，没有这些芯片也能制造出坦克的外壳，但控制系统、武器系统、弹药、视觉、防护系统和通信系统都依赖于这些芯片。
@silentIm
Your smartphone cpu is way more advanced than what is required for military requirements.
Most chips for military are not far off from automobile and industrial applications, produced on cheap 'trailing edge' node, 90 nm or bigger. These chips withstand more abuse, heat, vibration, and EM radiation. You see there are many cars from 2000 still run on original ECU, while Imac from the same year has been dead years ago. That kind of reliability is built on older more tested process, buillt on more robust platform.
US sanctions target the wrong node if it is really meant to limit military technology advancement. It is really meant just for the sake limiting Chinese technological advance, like a bully that games the market so its competitor wont surpass.
你的智能手机的CPU比军用要求先进得多。
大多数军用芯片与汽车和工业应用的芯片相差无几，都是在90纳米或更大的廉价的“落后”制程上生产的。这些芯片能承受更多的滥用、高温、振动和电磁辐射。你会发现有许多2000年生产的汽车仍在使用原装的ECU，而同年生产的imac早在几年前就已经报废了。这种可靠性是建立在更古老、更久经考验的工艺上，建立在更耐用的平台上的。
如果美国的制裁真的是为了限制军事技术的进步，那么它针对的是错误的制程。它的真正目的只是为了限制中国的技术进步，就像一个恶霸操纵市场，好让它的竞争对手无法超越。
@xiphoid2011
@silentIm military technology isn't designed using low end chips. The leading tech military equipment all use supercomputers to design and develop. Note that China still hasn't successfully designed a stealth bomber 34 years after US developed it. The end product when built 10 years after they were designed may not use the latest, but they were when it was first designed and developed.
@silentIm 军事技术不是用低端芯片设计的。技术领先的军事装备都是用超级计算机设计研发的。请注意，在美国研发隐形轰炸机34年后，中国仍未成功设计出隐形轰炸机。最终的产品在设计出来10年后制造出来，它可能用的不是最新的芯片，但在最初设计和研发时用的是最新的芯片。
@alanhonlunli
Cutting edge chips are not in military equipment because they are used in R&D. Future military applications are built off current chip technology. It seems like missiles are using old tech, only because it takes years, maybe decades to develop, validate, and manufacture a new design. Your phone with a 2nm chip can overheat and crash, and all you'd end up with is a class action lawsuit. But a new 6th generation jet will need components that are dependable 99.99% of the time, so do the guidance chips in the missiles they fire. The time to market for military equipment is on a whole other scale, but they are always on the cutting edge of what can be produced.
尖端芯片不会用于军事装备，因为它们主要用于研发。未来的军事应用离不开当前的芯片技术。现在的导弹似乎仍在使用旧的技术，这是因为开发、验证和制造一个新的设计需要数年甚至数十年的时间。使用2nm芯片的手机可能会过热和死机，你最终得到的可能只是一场集体诉讼。但新型第六代喷气式飞机需要99.99%可靠的组件，发射导弹的制导芯片也是如此。军事装备的上市时间完全是另一个尺度，但它们始终处于可以生产的前沿。
@ganboonmeng5370
China will over come...so many of the best..in chip design and manufacturing...are Chinese....I understand many many TSmc engineers crossing over..to work in China..
中国将会克服......因为有这么多芯片设计和制造领域的佼佼者都是中国人....，我知道很多台积电的工程师都到中国工作了。
@lucasglowacki4683
It appears that anytime you make something more unattainable the more the other party wants it. And the better they get at subversion. Keep your enemies closer! Collaboration would probably be a better bet. At least you’d know what they’re up to and could only feed them the info you want.
似乎每当你把某件事做得越难以实现时，另一方就会越想得到它，他们也就越善于颠覆。让你的敌人离你更近！合作可能是更好的选择，至少你能知道他们在搞什么鬼，而且只能向他们提供你想给的信息。
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