欧洲最大经济体正为未来奋力拼搏
正文翻译
-------------译者：路过大街去逛逛--- 审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------
What happens when a nation known for manufacturing loses its mojo? We look at whether Germany is in fact deindustrializing, what it could mean for companies and communities and whether Berlin can turn the tide back in its favor.
当一个以制造业闻名的国家失去竞争力，会发生什么？本文将探讨德国是否真的在去工业化，这对企业和社区意味着什么，以及柏林是否有可能扭转局势。
What happens when a nation known for manufacturing loses its mojo? We look at whether Germany is in fact deindustrializing, what it could mean for companies and communities and whether Berlin can turn the tide back in its favor.
当一个以制造业闻名的国家失去竞争力，会发生什么？本文将探讨德国是否真的在去工业化，这对企业和社区意味着什么，以及柏林是否有可能扭转局势。
评论翻译
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@sweetyluke1272
The key to the cheap and reliable German manufacturing was the supply of Russian natural gas. But after the 2022 attacks on Ukraine German industries are on a constant decline coupled with fears competition from Chinese products.
德国制造业能够既便宜又可靠的关键在于俄罗斯天然气的供应。但自从2022年乌克兰遭到攻击后，德国工业持续下滑，同时还面临来自中国商品的竞争压力。
@ramonluque1850
No gas, no nuclear, no coal.
没有天然气、没有核能、没有煤炭。
@navajojohn9448
Years ago I read to open a cup cake store you needed 12 or 18 months of some specific schooling and then only allowed to make certain kinds of cupcakes. Same thing with a bread shop, schooling and or 18 month apprenticeship to make and sell bread. Some would say that is extreme protectionism to prevent competition.
多年前我读到，要开一家杯子蛋糕店，你需要12到18个月的特定培训，而且只能制作某些类型的蛋糕。面包店也是如此，需要培训或18个月学徒期才能制作和销售面包。有些人会说，这是极端保护主义，用来阻止竞争。
@xboxonexchannal3713
Germany has to change their whole system. They''re 20 years behind the everybody. Everything takes ages and the only thing that''s more than is in germany, is there cars?
德国必须改变整个体系。他们落后于其他国家20年。每件事都需要很长时间，德国唯一领先的好像只有他们的汽车？
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@kdegraa
Shutting down coal and nuclear fired power stations without a reliable alternative was irresponsible and resulted in tremendous loss of life and wealth.
在没有可靠替代能源的情况下关闭燃煤和核电站是不负责任的，这导致了巨大的生命和财富损失。
@artmaknev3738
I constantly see ads how Germany wants to be the leader in AI technology, but how?? AI requires insane amounts of energy, to waste so much energy on AI that produces a funny cat video?!
我经常看到广告说德国想成为 AI 技术的领导者，但怎么可能呢？AI 需要惊人的能源消耗，却用这些能源去制作搞笑猫咪视频？！
@onyxobinna9400
“We will do everything possible to wean ourselves off cheap Russian energy”.- Ursula. Here u have it. Enjoy
“我们将尽一切可能摆脱廉价的俄罗斯能源。”——乌尔苏拉。事实就在这里，自己体会吧。
@justasmackevicius2940
I''m in Lithuania and german cars are not in high deman anymore. Most new cars are Toyotas and I don''t see that changing anytime soon. Germany used to be a standard for quality and now it''s just to make profit and leave customers wishing they''ve bought something else.
我在立陶宛，德国车现在不再受欢迎了。大多数新车是丰田，而且短期内看不到变化。德国曾经是质量的标准，而现在只是为了利润，让顾客买了东西后心生遗憾。
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@Jeroen_Maes
Soundtrack is stressing.
配乐让人紧张。
@andrewcharlton2709
This is so self inflicted!
这完全是自找的！
@kayleekayt3306
I can see a lot of people whining and nobody attempting to work out the actual structural problems..
我看到很多人在抱怨，却没人试图解决真正的结构性问题……
@PMMagro
I am not German or in Germany but it does like travelling back in time to visit Germany. Slow internet, someone is using fax machines (???), paperwork and phone calls quiet often (not most digital), cash not payment by card or mobile...
我不是德国人，也不在德国，但感觉像是穿越回去访问德国。网速慢，有人还在用传真机（？？？），纸质工作和电话占比很高（不是大多数数字化），现金支付，而不是刷卡或手机支付……
@mel3256
As someone from a deindustrialized nation, do not do it!!!! Being dependent on other states for essential goods makes us very vulnerable, especially since all goods are made in dictatorships or "unfriendly" countries
作为来自一个去工业化国家的人，我要说：别这样！！！依赖其他国家供应必需品会让我们非常脆弱，尤其是这些商品几乎都产自独裁国家或“不友好”国家。
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@Benjamin-hg018
Europe's largest economy is in crisis. The incompetence of the leaders of the state is to blame for everything
欧洲最大的经济体正处于危机中。国家领导人的无能应对一切问题负责。
@d.sertsedesta4106
Don’t confuse yourself and others the most significant factor for the decline in German economy is the halting of cheap Russian energy.
不要自欺，也别误导他人，德国经济衰退的最主要因素是廉价俄罗斯能源的停止供应。
@draganpenchev
Fantastisch. Germany does not need industry. It needs only consumers.
太棒了。德国不需要工业，只需要消费者。
@althyk
Let's see how long until we start raising tariffs.
看看我们多久会开始提高关税。
@BK-uf6qr
Why do the “experts” with all the answers only come out AFTER there is a problem that has developed over years if not decades????
为什么那些自称懂一切的“专家”总是在问题已经存在多年甚至几十年后才出现？？
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@inrussian9944
Now DW has joined the league of content producers who have completely lost understanding of the BACKGROUND music concept. The louder it is, the harder it is to follow the narrative.
现在 DW 也加入了那些完全不懂“背景音乐”概念的内容制作队伍。音乐一大声，说话就根本听不清了。
@jaorlowski
That win95 CD (about 7:00) was so telling! XD
那个 Win95 光盘（大约 7:00）真的太耐人寻味了！XD
@navajojohn9448
German cars have become just as mechanically unreliable as cheaper cars. It just costs more to keep the German cars running. Expensive junk to be disposed of before the warranty expires.
德国车在机械可靠性方面已经和那些便宜车差不多了。只不过维护德国车的成本更高。昂贵的废物，保修期一结束就得扔。
@umbertosantini4155
by moving production abroad they have given away their technology to other nations, so to make short term profits they now have to challenge competitors with lower costs...
他们把生产搬到海外，相当于把技术都送给了其他国家。为了追求短期利润，现在只能面对成本更低的竞争者……
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@shanecook9653
This is far from inevitable. The remaing rich countries are the ones who kept their industrial base. Germany chose to decouple from cheap Russian gas. Gas prices spiked 4x during this time, and even today is at least 2x what it was before the conflict. Electricity is artificially high, one of the highest in the EU, so switching from gas to electricity, the ''green'' option, is also an artificially expensive transition. Yet the actual amount paid to large scale solar suppliers is 6.80c, so half the current domestic gas price. Germany abandoned these high energy usage companies to fair by themselves, so of course, they move elsewhere, where electricity is one third or one quarter the price. We then buy from abroad, mainly from companies which either pollute or source energy from Russia. What is needed in Germany is government intervention to transition such industries to electricity consumption. Build grid scale battery plants next to such consumers. We already start to see negative electricity costs this year as solar and wind produce too much power when demand is low. Finance these companies or others to co-locate solar/wind farms next to the consumers.
这绝非不可避免。那些仍然富裕的国家，正是保留了自身工业基础的国家。德国选择与廉价的俄罗斯天然气脱钩，结果气价在这期间暴涨了四倍，即便是现在，也仍然是冲突前的两倍以上。电价被人为推高，位居欧盟最高之列，因此从天然气转向电力这一“绿色”选项，同样变成了一项被人为抬高成本的转型。
然而，大规模太阳能供应商的实际上网电价只有 6.80 欧分，大约仅是当前民用天然气价格的一半。德国把这些高能耗企业完全撇在一边，让它们自生自灭，因此它们当然会迁往别处——那些电价只有德国三分之一甚至四分之一的国家。随后我们再从国外进口产品，而那些企业要么污染严重，要么使用俄国能源。
德国真正需要的，是政府介入，帮助这些行业完成向电力消费的转型。在这些企业附近建设电网级电池储能设施。今年我们已经看到过电价为负的情况——当太阳能与风电在需求低时产量过剩。应当为这些企业，或为愿意与其协同布局的其他企业提供融资，在其周边共同建设太阳能、风电场。
-------------译者：路过大街去逛逛--- 审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------
@lastsovietspy
Economics is an social science. Not just numbers. There are things money can’t buy, the fact of knowing that your country has a strong industry, in behavioral economics (there are papers about this), is actually so meaningful in someone’s life
经济学是社会科学，不只是数字。钱买不到一切——比如你知道自己的国家有强大的工业，这件事在行为经济学中（确实有论文研究）对人的生活意义重大。
@YogaBlissDance
Thank you this actually helped me understand more about US politics and shifts too!
谢谢你，这真的让我更了解美国的政治与变化！
@Alexandra-bc3ol
Industrial jobs have simply become rare (automatisation). One of the results is - industries do not have any voice in politics. The impression is - huge mobs of totally uneducated an untrained simply demand that they get some kind of sinecura either directly at industrial enterprises or in the public sector payed to of the tax of industries, otherwise jet another "weavers' uprising" threatens. German politicians have been organising the process, recruiting those "willing to work" abroad too. Germany has less and less to expect from industries.
工业岗位本来就越来越稀少了（自动化）。结果就是——工业根本没有什么政治话语权。感觉就像——大量完全没有受过教育、没有培训的人，只是一味要求工业企业或公共部门给他们安排某种“闲差”，靠工业部门的税收来养他们，否则就又要上演一场“织工暴动”。德国政客一直在推动这种过程，还从国外招募所谓“愿意工作的人”。德国从工业身上，能够指望的东西越来越少。
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@michaelhorl9417
Germany is very strong on public service, marxist universities and the control of public opinion and non-socialist parties.
德国在公共服务、马克思主义倾向的大学、舆论控制和非社会主义政党的压制方面倒是很强。
@Masterrunescapeer
Energy price one is interesting as since around 2024H2, wholesale prices are similar to end of 2021 levels, and trend is down. A lot of the issue is that these industries need to move away from directly burning gas, these are huge capital costs, and it means that the shareholder dividends will decrease for a few years, plus they''re relying on the German government to finish those energy interconnects.
能源价格的确是个有趣的问题，因为自 2024 年下半年开始，批发电价已经回到了 2021 年末的水平，而且趋势在继续下降。问题在于这些行业必须摆脱直接燃烧天然气的模式，这意味着巨额资本支出，也意味着几年内股东分红会减少，再加上他们还得依赖德国政府把那些能源互联项目建设完成。
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@stefanwerner1560
Depends a bit on what “industry” means for you. If its coal mines, steel mills, assembly lines and so on: yes Germany is in fact de-industrializing. Simply because there’s other places that can make those products cheaper for various reasons. Its not just lack of cheap energy, its also a lack of cheap labour. On the other hand, we’re still doing well in those specialized industries where you need highly skilled workers. The problem is that the level of skills that are required is constantly rising. Just think how everything turned digital… our national mindset to consider changes as threaths isn’t very helpful in that context. It’s not just our bureaucracy that failed to adapt, it’s large parts of our society: Many people who once were pretty good in their jobs have lost touch, and a lot are very frustrated because of all these changes, wishing those “good old times” would come back again. But that won’t happen, the world is different today, whether you like it or not.
这取决于你对“工业”的定义。如果指的是煤矿、钢厂、装配线等等，那么是的，德国确实在去工业化——因为其他地方能以更低成本生产这些产品。不仅是缺乏廉价能源，也缺乏廉价劳动力。
但另一方面，在那些需要高度专业技能的行业，我们仍然表现不错。问题在于，这些工作的技能要求不断提高。想想看，一切都变成数字化了
而我们的民族心态却把变化视为威胁，这在当下非常不利。不只是官僚体系没能适应，社会很大一部分也是如此：许多曾经在岗位上表现不错的人，如今已跟不上节奏，因此非常挫败，渴望“美好旧时代”重现。但那不会再回来，世界变了，无论你喜欢与否。
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@fl00fydragon
industry does not pop up like mushrooms. you need robust industrial policy to keep it competitive. Not only germany, but the entire EU, suffers from relying on aging industrial technology and a stubborn adherance to old and mature industrial technology and installations. This is a direct effect of neoliberal economics we adopted to coddle american investors. This obviously does not work, I believe this is evident by now. Germany, and the entire EU for that matter, NEED robust industrial policy. It needs policies that will facilitate the rapid adoption of new technologies as well as ambitious R&D megaprojects. We must master additive manufacturing, take the lead in robotics, and become the global pharmaseutical research hub. I cannot stress this enough: we need a medical "appollo progrram" that aims to make the EU the sole global exporter in anti-aging treatments, first generation bionics, regenerative medicine, epigenetic cures, mRNA technology and gene therapy within a decade.
工业可不是蘑菇，说长就长。你需要强有力的产业政策来保持竞争力。不仅是德国，整个欧盟都在依赖老旧的工业技术，并固守那些已经成熟、逐渐落伍的工业体系和设备。这是我们为了讨好美国投资者而采纳的新自由主义经济政策所带来的直接后果。显然，这条路走不通，我认为现在已经非常清楚了。
德国——以及整个欧盟——必须制定强势的工业政策。我们需要的是能推动迅速采用新技术的政策，以及雄心勃勃的科研和开发大型项目。
我们必须掌握增材制造技术，在机器人领域取得领先，并成为全球制药研究中心。
我无法更强调这一点：我们需要一个医学领域的“阿波罗计划”。目标是在十年内让欧盟成为唯一的全球出口方，出口内容包括：抗衰老疗法、第一代仿生技术、再生医学、表观遗传治疗、mRNA 技术以及基因治疗。
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@gepal7914
Industry needs energy. By abandoning nuclear, focusing on wind and solar, Germany has the highest energy cost in Europe. Germany has to find cheap natural gas (such as from Norway), rebuild its nuclear industry, and look for cheap and stable base load sources of energy. Otherwise, industry cannot survive. This means abandoning European socialist policies. But, with the SPD in the coalition, Merz has crippled himself.
工业需要能源。德国放弃核电、重押风能与太阳能，导致其能源成本成为全欧洲最高。德国必须找到廉价天然气（比如来自挪威的）、重建其核电产业，并寻找廉价稳定的基荷能源，否则工业无法生存。这意味着要放弃欧洲的社会主义政策。但由于社民党（SPD）在执政联盟里，默茨等于把自己束缚住了。
@siphoramashiya531
So in Simple terms... Sanctions are destroying Germany's industries.
简单来说……制裁正在摧毁德国工业。
@cvrbon6
Surely importing from the middle east and africa will solve this, or whatever
当然啦，从中东和非洲进口能源肯定能解决这一切，或者随便什么东西吧。
@JP-sw5ho
The industrialization now is like the agriculturalization 100 years ago in the USA. Automation liberated the vast majority of American workers to leave the farms and move onto a better life. I live in the United States and personally I don't know anyone who would rather work in factory than an office
如今的“去工业化”就像一百年前美国的“去农业化”。自动化让绝大多数美国工人从农场解放出来，过上更好的生活。我住在美国，个人来说我不认识任何一个愿意去工厂干活而不愿意坐办公室的人。
@urbanstrencan
Not just Germany the whole EU should start to invest more in startups and new technology development, maybe even loosen some regulations for faster development of new tech
不仅是德国，整个欧盟都应该加大对初创企业和新技术研发的投资，甚至应该放宽一些监管，以加快新技术的发展。
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@chadreshpatel2339
I invested in Lilium, the flying taxi company. It had promising business and they needed 100 millions in loan. Everything got negotiated and finalised. But at the last moment, the government backed out and the company got bankrupt. Do you know who bought this company for peanuts? Yes, someone from the US.
我曾投资过 Lilium，这家做飞行出租车的公司。它的业务很有前景，只需要一亿欧元的贷款，一切都已经谈妥敲定。但在最后关头，政府却临时撤回承诺，公司也因此破产。你知道最后是谁用白菜价把公司买走的吗？没错，就是美国人。
@LambdaWave84
Economy is transformed energy. Germany had no more cheap russian gas (that was also used for chemical industry, because most of the chemistry is based on hydrocarbons).
经济就是被转化的能源。德国失去了廉价的俄国天然气（化工行业也大量依赖碳氢化合物）。
@jamiearnott9669
Interesting video. However, I doubt Germany will end up like Great Britain, incidentally the world's fourth largest trading nation after Germany. That is to say, exports of services greater than goods merchandise, including a lower percentage of industry as a percentage of economy (20% industry, 80% services, and efficient by European standards of 0.6% agriculture). Nevertheless as a creative and innovative country, as in a knowledge economy Germany will remain one of the largest exporters of services and merchandise into the future.
视频很有意思。不过我怀疑德国最终会像英国那样——顺便说一句，英国如今仍然是全球第四大贸易国，仅次于德国。也就是说，它的服务出口大于商品出口，工业占比下降（工业占经济 20%，服务业 80%，农业效率高到只占 0.6%）。
尽管如此，作为一个富有创造力和创新力的国家，在知识型经济方面，德国未来仍会继续成为全球最大的服务与商品出口国之一。
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@LambdaWave84
Economy is transformed energy. Germany had no more cheap russian gas (that was also used for chemical industry, because most of the chemistry is based on hydrocarbons).
经济，其本质就是能量的转化。德国再也得不到廉价的俄罗斯天然气了（化工行业也依赖这种气源，因为化学工业很大程度上建立在烃类基础之上）。
@jamiearnott9669
Interesting video. However, I doubt Germany will end up like Great Britain, incidentally the world's fourth largest trading nation after Germany. That is to say, exports of services greater than goods merchandise, including a lower percentage of industry as a percentage of economy (20% industry, 80% services, and efficient by European standards of 0.6% agriculture). Nevertheless as a creative and innovative country, as in a knowledge economy Germany will remain one of the largest exporters of services and merchandise into the future.
有趣的视频。不过，我不认为德国会像英国那样——顺便提一句，英国目前是仅次于德国的全球第四大贸易国。英国的结构是服务出口远超商品出口，产业占比下降（约工业20%、服务业80%、农业仅0.6%，按欧洲标准算是高效）。尽管如此，作为一个富有创造力和创新能力、以知识经济为基础的国家，德国未来仍将是全球最大的服务与商品出口国之一。 （和上一条翻译重复）
@sweetyluke1272
The key to the cheap and reliable German manufacturing was the supply of Russian natural gas. But after the 2022 attacks on Ukraine German industries are on a constant decline coupled with fears competition from Chinese products.
德国制造业能够既便宜又可靠的关键在于俄罗斯天然气的供应。但自从2022年乌克兰遭到攻击后，德国工业持续下滑，同时还面临来自中国商品的竞争压力。
@ramonluque1850
No gas, no nuclear, no coal.
没有天然气、没有核能、没有煤炭。
@navajojohn9448
Years ago I read to open a cup cake store you needed 12 or 18 months of some specific schooling and then only allowed to make certain kinds of cupcakes. Same thing with a bread shop, schooling and or 18 month apprenticeship to make and sell bread. Some would say that is extreme protectionism to prevent competition.
多年前我读到，要开一家杯子蛋糕店，你需要12到18个月的特定培训，而且只能制作某些类型的蛋糕。面包店也是如此，需要培训或18个月学徒期才能制作和销售面包。有些人会说，这是极端保护主义，用来阻止竞争。
@xboxonexchannal3713
Germany has to change their whole system. They''re 20 years behind the everybody. Everything takes ages and the only thing that''s more than is in germany, is there cars?
德国必须改变整个体系。他们落后于其他国家20年。每件事都需要很长时间，德国唯一领先的好像只有他们的汽车？
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@kdegraa
Shutting down coal and nuclear fired power stations without a reliable alternative was irresponsible and resulted in tremendous loss of life and wealth.
在没有可靠替代能源的情况下关闭燃煤和核电站是不负责任的，这导致了巨大的生命和财富损失。
@artmaknev3738
I constantly see ads how Germany wants to be the leader in AI technology, but how?? AI requires insane amounts of energy, to waste so much energy on AI that produces a funny cat video?!
我经常看到广告说德国想成为 AI 技术的领导者，但怎么可能呢？AI 需要惊人的能源消耗，却用这些能源去制作搞笑猫咪视频？！
@onyxobinna9400
“We will do everything possible to wean ourselves off cheap Russian energy”.- Ursula. Here u have it. Enjoy
“我们将尽一切可能摆脱廉价的俄罗斯能源。”——乌尔苏拉。事实就在这里，自己体会吧。
@justasmackevicius2940
I''m in Lithuania and german cars are not in high deman anymore. Most new cars are Toyotas and I don''t see that changing anytime soon. Germany used to be a standard for quality and now it''s just to make profit and leave customers wishing they''ve bought something else.
我在立陶宛，德国车现在不再受欢迎了。大多数新车是丰田，而且短期内看不到变化。德国曾经是质量的标准，而现在只是为了利润，让顾客买了东西后心生遗憾。
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@Jeroen_Maes
Soundtrack is stressing.
配乐让人紧张。
@andrewcharlton2709
This is so self inflicted!
这完全是自找的！
@kayleekayt3306
I can see a lot of people whining and nobody attempting to work out the actual structural problems..
我看到很多人在抱怨，却没人试图解决真正的结构性问题……
@PMMagro
I am not German or in Germany but it does like travelling back in time to visit Germany. Slow internet, someone is using fax machines (???), paperwork and phone calls quiet often (not most digital), cash not payment by card or mobile...
我不是德国人，也不在德国，但感觉像是穿越回去访问德国。网速慢，有人还在用传真机（？？？），纸质工作和电话占比很高（不是大多数数字化），现金支付，而不是刷卡或手机支付……
@mel3256
As someone from a deindustrialized nation, do not do it!!!! Being dependent on other states for essential goods makes us very vulnerable, especially since all goods are made in dictatorships or "unfriendly" countries
作为来自一个去工业化国家的人，我要说：别这样！！！依赖其他国家供应必需品会让我们非常脆弱，尤其是这些商品几乎都产自独裁国家或“不友好”国家。
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@Benjamin-hg018
Europe's largest economy is in crisis. The incompetence of the leaders of the state is to blame for everything
欧洲最大的经济体正处于危机中。国家领导人的无能应对一切问题负责。
@d.sertsedesta4106
Don’t confuse yourself and others the most significant factor for the decline in German economy is the halting of cheap Russian energy.
不要自欺，也别误导他人，德国经济衰退的最主要因素是廉价俄罗斯能源的停止供应。
@draganpenchev
Fantastisch. Germany does not need industry. It needs only consumers.
太棒了。德国不需要工业，只需要消费者。
@althyk
Let's see how long until we start raising tariffs.
看看我们多久会开始提高关税。
@BK-uf6qr
Why do the “experts” with all the answers only come out AFTER there is a problem that has developed over years if not decades????
为什么那些自称懂一切的“专家”总是在问题已经存在多年甚至几十年后才出现？？
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@inrussian9944
Now DW has joined the league of content producers who have completely lost understanding of the BACKGROUND music concept. The louder it is, the harder it is to follow the narrative.
现在 DW 也加入了那些完全不懂“背景音乐”概念的内容制作队伍。音乐一大声，说话就根本听不清了。
@jaorlowski
That win95 CD (about 7:00) was so telling! XD
那个 Win95 光盘（大约 7:00）真的太耐人寻味了！XD
@navajojohn9448
German cars have become just as mechanically unreliable as cheaper cars. It just costs more to keep the German cars running. Expensive junk to be disposed of before the warranty expires.
德国车在机械可靠性方面已经和那些便宜车差不多了。只不过维护德国车的成本更高。昂贵的废物，保修期一结束就得扔。
@umbertosantini4155
by moving production abroad they have given away their technology to other nations, so to make short term profits they now have to challenge competitors with lower costs...
他们把生产搬到海外，相当于把技术都送给了其他国家。为了追求短期利润，现在只能面对成本更低的竞争者……
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@shanecook9653
This is far from inevitable. The remaing rich countries are the ones who kept their industrial base. Germany chose to decouple from cheap Russian gas. Gas prices spiked 4x during this time, and even today is at least 2x what it was before the conflict. Electricity is artificially high, one of the highest in the EU, so switching from gas to electricity, the ''green'' option, is also an artificially expensive transition. Yet the actual amount paid to large scale solar suppliers is 6.80c, so half the current domestic gas price. Germany abandoned these high energy usage companies to fair by themselves, so of course, they move elsewhere, where electricity is one third or one quarter the price. We then buy from abroad, mainly from companies which either pollute or source energy from Russia. What is needed in Germany is government intervention to transition such industries to electricity consumption. Build grid scale battery plants next to such consumers. We already start to see negative electricity costs this year as solar and wind produce too much power when demand is low. Finance these companies or others to co-locate solar/wind farms next to the consumers.
这绝非不可避免。那些仍然富裕的国家，正是保留了自身工业基础的国家。德国选择与廉价的俄罗斯天然气脱钩，结果气价在这期间暴涨了四倍，即便是现在，也仍然是冲突前的两倍以上。电价被人为推高，位居欧盟最高之列，因此从天然气转向电力这一“绿色”选项，同样变成了一项被人为抬高成本的转型。
然而，大规模太阳能供应商的实际上网电价只有 6.80 欧分，大约仅是当前民用天然气价格的一半。德国把这些高能耗企业完全撇在一边，让它们自生自灭，因此它们当然会迁往别处——那些电价只有德国三分之一甚至四分之一的国家。随后我们再从国外进口产品，而那些企业要么污染严重，要么使用俄国能源。
德国真正需要的，是政府介入，帮助这些行业完成向电力消费的转型。在这些企业附近建设电网级电池储能设施。今年我们已经看到过电价为负的情况——当太阳能与风电在需求低时产量过剩。应当为这些企业，或为愿意与其协同布局的其他企业提供融资，在其周边共同建设太阳能、风电场。
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@lastsovietspy
Economics is an social science. Not just numbers. There are things money can’t buy, the fact of knowing that your country has a strong industry, in behavioral economics (there are papers about this), is actually so meaningful in someone’s life
经济学是社会科学，不只是数字。钱买不到一切——比如你知道自己的国家有强大的工业，这件事在行为经济学中（确实有论文研究）对人的生活意义重大。
@YogaBlissDance
Thank you this actually helped me understand more about US politics and shifts too!
谢谢你，这真的让我更了解美国的政治与变化！
@Alexandra-bc3ol
Industrial jobs have simply become rare (automatisation). One of the results is - industries do not have any voice in politics. The impression is - huge mobs of totally uneducated an untrained simply demand that they get some kind of sinecura either directly at industrial enterprises or in the public sector payed to of the tax of industries, otherwise jet another "weavers' uprising" threatens. German politicians have been organising the process, recruiting those "willing to work" abroad too. Germany has less and less to expect from industries.
工业岗位本来就越来越稀少了（自动化）。结果就是——工业根本没有什么政治话语权。感觉就像——大量完全没有受过教育、没有培训的人，只是一味要求工业企业或公共部门给他们安排某种“闲差”，靠工业部门的税收来养他们，否则就又要上演一场“织工暴动”。德国政客一直在推动这种过程，还从国外招募所谓“愿意工作的人”。德国从工业身上，能够指望的东西越来越少。
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@michaelhorl9417
Germany is very strong on public service, marxist universities and the control of public opinion and non-socialist parties.
德国在公共服务、马克思主义倾向的大学、舆论控制和非社会主义政党的压制方面倒是很强。
@Masterrunescapeer
Energy price one is interesting as since around 2024H2, wholesale prices are similar to end of 2021 levels, and trend is down. A lot of the issue is that these industries need to move away from directly burning gas, these are huge capital costs, and it means that the shareholder dividends will decrease for a few years, plus they''re relying on the German government to finish those energy interconnects.
能源价格的确是个有趣的问题，因为自 2024 年下半年开始，批发电价已经回到了 2021 年末的水平，而且趋势在继续下降。问题在于这些行业必须摆脱直接燃烧天然气的模式，这意味着巨额资本支出，也意味着几年内股东分红会减少，再加上他们还得依赖德国政府把那些能源互联项目建设完成。
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@stefanwerner1560
Depends a bit on what “industry” means for you. If its coal mines, steel mills, assembly lines and so on: yes Germany is in fact de-industrializing. Simply because there’s other places that can make those products cheaper for various reasons. Its not just lack of cheap energy, its also a lack of cheap labour. On the other hand, we’re still doing well in those specialized industries where you need highly skilled workers. The problem is that the level of skills that are required is constantly rising. Just think how everything turned digital… our national mindset to consider changes as threaths isn’t very helpful in that context. It’s not just our bureaucracy that failed to adapt, it’s large parts of our society: Many people who once were pretty good in their jobs have lost touch, and a lot are very frustrated because of all these changes, wishing those “good old times” would come back again. But that won’t happen, the world is different today, whether you like it or not.
这取决于你对“工业”的定义。如果指的是煤矿、钢厂、装配线等等，那么是的，德国确实在去工业化——因为其他地方能以更低成本生产这些产品。不仅是缺乏廉价能源，也缺乏廉价劳动力。
但另一方面，在那些需要高度专业技能的行业，我们仍然表现不错。问题在于，这些工作的技能要求不断提高。想想看，一切都变成数字化了
而我们的民族心态却把变化视为威胁，这在当下非常不利。不只是官僚体系没能适应，社会很大一部分也是如此：许多曾经在岗位上表现不错的人，如今已跟不上节奏，因此非常挫败，渴望“美好旧时代”重现。但那不会再回来，世界变了，无论你喜欢与否。
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@fl00fydragon
industry does not pop up like mushrooms. you need robust industrial policy to keep it competitive. Not only germany, but the entire EU, suffers from relying on aging industrial technology and a stubborn adherance to old and mature industrial technology and installations. This is a direct effect of neoliberal economics we adopted to coddle american investors. This obviously does not work, I believe this is evident by now. Germany, and the entire EU for that matter, NEED robust industrial policy. It needs policies that will facilitate the rapid adoption of new technologies as well as ambitious R&D megaprojects. We must master additive manufacturing, take the lead in robotics, and become the global pharmaseutical research hub. I cannot stress this enough: we need a medical "appollo progrram" that aims to make the EU the sole global exporter in anti-aging treatments, first generation bionics, regenerative medicine, epigenetic cures, mRNA technology and gene therapy within a decade.
工业可不是蘑菇，说长就长。你需要强有力的产业政策来保持竞争力。不仅是德国，整个欧盟都在依赖老旧的工业技术，并固守那些已经成熟、逐渐落伍的工业体系和设备。这是我们为了讨好美国投资者而采纳的新自由主义经济政策所带来的直接后果。显然，这条路走不通，我认为现在已经非常清楚了。
德国——以及整个欧盟——必须制定强势的工业政策。我们需要的是能推动迅速采用新技术的政策，以及雄心勃勃的科研和开发大型项目。
我们必须掌握增材制造技术，在机器人领域取得领先，并成为全球制药研究中心。
我无法更强调这一点：我们需要一个医学领域的“阿波罗计划”。目标是在十年内让欧盟成为唯一的全球出口方，出口内容包括：抗衰老疗法、第一代仿生技术、再生医学、表观遗传治疗、mRNA 技术以及基因治疗。
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@gepal7914
Industry needs energy. By abandoning nuclear, focusing on wind and solar, Germany has the highest energy cost in Europe. Germany has to find cheap natural gas (such as from Norway), rebuild its nuclear industry, and look for cheap and stable base load sources of energy. Otherwise, industry cannot survive. This means abandoning European socialist policies. But, with the SPD in the coalition, Merz has crippled himself.
工业需要能源。德国放弃核电、重押风能与太阳能，导致其能源成本成为全欧洲最高。德国必须找到廉价天然气（比如来自挪威的）、重建其核电产业，并寻找廉价稳定的基荷能源，否则工业无法生存。这意味着要放弃欧洲的社会主义政策。但由于社民党（SPD）在执政联盟里，默茨等于把自己束缚住了。
@siphoramashiya531
So in Simple terms... Sanctions are destroying Germany's industries.
简单来说……制裁正在摧毁德国工业。
@cvrbon6
Surely importing from the middle east and africa will solve this, or whatever
当然啦，从中东和非洲进口能源肯定能解决这一切，或者随便什么东西吧。
@JP-sw5ho
The industrialization now is like the agriculturalization 100 years ago in the USA. Automation liberated the vast majority of American workers to leave the farms and move onto a better life. I live in the United States and personally I don't know anyone who would rather work in factory than an office
如今的“去工业化”就像一百年前美国的“去农业化”。自动化让绝大多数美国工人从农场解放出来，过上更好的生活。我住在美国，个人来说我不认识任何一个愿意去工厂干活而不愿意坐办公室的人。
@urbanstrencan
Not just Germany the whole EU should start to invest more in startups and new technology development, maybe even loosen some regulations for faster development of new tech
不仅是德国，整个欧盟都应该加大对初创企业和新技术研发的投资，甚至应该放宽一些监管，以加快新技术的发展。
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@chadreshpatel2339
I invested in Lilium, the flying taxi company. It had promising business and they needed 100 millions in loan. Everything got negotiated and finalised. But at the last moment, the government backed out and the company got bankrupt. Do you know who bought this company for peanuts? Yes, someone from the US.
我曾投资过 Lilium，这家做飞行出租车的公司。它的业务很有前景，只需要一亿欧元的贷款，一切都已经谈妥敲定。但在最后关头，政府却临时撤回承诺，公司也因此破产。你知道最后是谁用白菜价把公司买走的吗？没错，就是美国人。
@LambdaWave84
Economy is transformed energy. Germany had no more cheap russian gas (that was also used for chemical industry, because most of the chemistry is based on hydrocarbons).
经济就是被转化的能源。德国失去了廉价的俄国天然气（化工行业也大量依赖碳氢化合物）。
@jamiearnott9669
Interesting video. However, I doubt Germany will end up like Great Britain, incidentally the world's fourth largest trading nation after Germany. That is to say, exports of services greater than goods merchandise, including a lower percentage of industry as a percentage of economy (20% industry, 80% services, and efficient by European standards of 0.6% agriculture). Nevertheless as a creative and innovative country, as in a knowledge economy Germany will remain one of the largest exporters of services and merchandise into the future.
视频很有意思。不过我怀疑德国最终会像英国那样——顺便说一句，英国如今仍然是全球第四大贸易国，仅次于德国。也就是说，它的服务出口大于商品出口，工业占比下降（工业占经济 20%，服务业 80%，农业效率高到只占 0.6%）。
尽管如此，作为一个富有创造力和创新力的国家，在知识型经济方面，德国未来仍会继续成为全球最大的服务与商品出口国之一。
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@LambdaWave84
Economy is transformed energy. Germany had no more cheap russian gas (that was also used for chemical industry, because most of the chemistry is based on hydrocarbons).
经济，其本质就是能量的转化。德国再也得不到廉价的俄罗斯天然气了（化工行业也依赖这种气源，因为化学工业很大程度上建立在烃类基础之上）。
@jamiearnott9669
Interesting video. However, I doubt Germany will end up like Great Britain, incidentally the world's fourth largest trading nation after Germany. That is to say, exports of services greater than goods merchandise, including a lower percentage of industry as a percentage of economy (20% industry, 80% services, and efficient by European standards of 0.6% agriculture). Nevertheless as a creative and innovative country, as in a knowledge economy Germany will remain one of the largest exporters of services and merchandise into the future.
有趣的视频。不过，我不认为德国会像英国那样——顺便提一句，英国目前是仅次于德国的全球第四大贸易国。英国的结构是服务出口远超商品出口，产业占比下降（约工业20%、服务业80%、农业仅0.6%，按欧洲标准算是高效）。尽管如此，作为一个富有创造力和创新能力、以知识经济为基础的国家，德国未来仍将是全球最大的服务与商品出口国之一。 （和上一条翻译重复）
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