网帖翻译

Sekiguchi Masanori, lives in Japan
The premise of your question is totally incorrect.
Japan is not the only country with aging demographics, with China suffering even more so.
The economic growth seen in Japan is fairly good for a developed country.
Our military forces are anything but meek.
That said, I agree with Stephen Lemelin’s reply.
China has a fast-declining population. In addition, if one were to scratch the surface they would see that their economic situation is not all that great either. China is increasingly seen as an enemy by more and more countries than a friend.

你的问题的前提是完全错误的。
日本不是唯一一个人口老龄化的国家，中国未来的情况将更严重。
日本的经济增长率对一个发达国家来说是相当不错的。
我们的军队一点也不温顺。
也就是说，我同意Stephen Lemelin的回答。

中国的人口正在迅速下降。此外，如果能透过表面，你会看到中国的经济状况也没有那么好。而且有越来越多的国家将中国视为敌人而不是朋友。

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Jay Snead, professional researcher, amateur philosopher
What a load of nonsense.
Japan has the third largest GDP in the world. It has the third largest total wealth. It is a G7 member with no economic problems.
Japan is #6 in total military power. Its armed forces are far from “meek”.
Japan conquered China in the 20th century, did you forget that?
China is increasingly rich, but its military power is entirely unproven.
Japan will deal with China effectively because it is also rich and powerful and it has powerful allies, including The Superpower.

简直是一派胡言。
日本的国内生产总值位居世界第三，它拥有世界第三大的总财富额，它是G7的成员国，不存在任何经济问题。
日本的军事力量排名世界第6，它的武装力量远非“温顺”。
日本在20世纪征服了中国，你忘了吗？
虽然中国越来越富有，但其军事实力却完全未经证实。
日本将有效地与中国打交道，因为它也很富强，而且它有包括超级大国在内的强大的盟友。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

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Bob MacKenzie, former Business Owner, Manager.and general curmudgen. at Private Business Self Employed Thinker (1993-2020)
Japan is already signed on to the biggest trade deal every made called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership that includes China, the Philippines, Australia, New Zealand and 14 other Asia countries. That is about 30% of the world’s population and economy.
China has the largest consumer market in the world. It is spreading its manufacturing ability out to its neighbours and various African countries and they are all interconnected by the Belt and Road Initiative.
Japan will take advantage of the ability to move its goods and services around within the partnership in a very free flowing manner. It will take some time to make the necessary adjustments but at some point they will all operate out of a common exchange centre with a common currency. Probably digital.

日本已经签署了包括中国、菲律宾、澳大利亚、新西兰和其他14个亚洲国家在内的被称为区域全面经济伙伴关系（RECP）的世界上最大的贸易协议，这项协议大约包含了世界30%的人口和经济总量。
中国是世界上最大的消费市场，它将其制造能力扩展到了邻国和非洲各个国家，并通过“一带一路”倡议相互联系。
日本将利用这一便利在RECP内以非常自由流动的方式运送其货物和服务。为符合协议要求，进行必要的调整需要一段时间，但在某个时候，它们都将在一个拥有共同货币的共同兑换中心之外运作。

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Stephen Lemelin, former Various at U.S. Army (1998-2020)，Lives in St. Croix, Virgin Islands1978–present
Japan and China are actually similar in one regard they both have horrible demographics. The difference being Japan is about 2 decades or so ahead of China in the demographic problems. Second Japan's per capita income is multiple times China’s.
So what this means is that Japan has grown old but got rich before getting old. The problem for China is they must get that per capita earnings up quickly given the demographic problems happening so fast due to the one-child policy and now low birth rate due to normal changes as a country moves up in development.
I really don’t see much for China to want out of Japan in terms of invading or frankly bothering them except for some small island disputes. Given the distances involved invasion doesn’t make much sense, nor does Japan have much in the way of natural resources, population or key land to take.

日本和中国实际上在这个方面是非常相似的，他们都有可怕的人口结构。不同的是，在人口老化问题上，日本比中国领先了20年左右。其次，日本的人均收入是中国的数倍。
所以这意味着虽然日本已经变老了，但它在变老之前就很富有了。而中国面临的问题是，他们必须迅速提高人均收入，因为独生子女政策导致的人口问题发生得如此之快，而随着国家发展水平的提高，人口出生率又因经济发展而降低。
除了一些小岛争端，我真的不认为中国有什么想从日本掠夺的。考虑到距离，入侵没有多大意义，日本也没有太多的自然资源、人口或关键土地可供利用。

So overall if I was Japan I would just stick close to the US for military support while my population declined rapidly over the next 100 years. I mean if you look at the trends in the next 30 years Japan is scheduled to reduce its population by 1/6th with the average age rising to 54.7 years old. What does China want with an island of old people, with no resources? China’s best strategy for Japan is to wait and then sell them depends!
You can also see Chinas population starts to decline around 2030 with the average age shooting up from 30 in 2000 to 47.8 in 2050. Not as bad as Japan but catching up fast, Population declines are less due to the difference in starting points. By 2050 China is shrinking by over 5 million per year, but the real drops will come in the back half of the century. 5 million vs a population of over 1.4 billion is really not that much, what you can see is the trend speeding up from a trickle in 2035 with a reduction of 650,000 per year to 5 million a year 15 years later, if we extrapolate this out by 2060 this will be in excess of 10 million per year in reduction with a much older population.

所以总的来说，如果我是日本的话，我会在在接下来的100年里我的人口迅速减少的时候，与美国保持密切的军事联系。我的意思是，如果你看看未来30年的趋势，日本预计人口将减少1/6，平均年龄将上升到54.7岁。一个没有资源，只有老年人的孤岛，对中国有什么用？
中国的人口将在2030年左右开始下降，平均年龄从2000年的30岁上升到2050年的47.8岁，虽然没有日本那么糟糕，但是追赶起来很快。由于起点的不同，中国人口下降的幅度相对日本会小一些。到2050年，中国人口将以每年超过500万的速度萎缩，但真正的下降将出现在本世纪后半叶。500万人口与14亿人口相比其实并不算多，你能看到的是，人口下降的趋势将从2035年减少65万人的涓涓细流开始加速，15年后变成每年减少500万人，如果我们推算到2060年，则中国每年将减少1000万人口。

Also note that growth numbers for the past 20–30 years have been on the aggressive side not accounting for accelerating declines, so if history is correct these numbers may drop much faster than currently predicted. To put this in perspective the original projections just ten years ago was a world population topping out at 12 billion, now we may not even hit 10 billion. That is a big revision of 17%, or 2 billion people. This leads me to believe there may be even more revision coming with an even lower projected population worldwide.

还要注意的是，中国过去20-30年的人口增长数据一直在积极扩张，因此，如果数据是正确的，那么这些数字的下降速度可能比目前预测的要快得多。从这个角度来看，十年前关于世界人口最初的预测是峰值将达到120亿，而现在我们预测甚至世界人口最终可能无法达到100亿。这是一个17%，即20亿人的大修订。这让我相信，随着预计的全球人口的萎缩，未来可能还会有更多的修订。