“外国势力”是否威胁到巴拿马运河？以下是你需要了解的信息

Does a ‘foreign power’ threaten the Panama Canal? Here’s what you need to know

“外国势力”是否威胁到巴拿马运河？以下是你需要了解的信息
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Analysis by Patrick Oppmann, CNN
Published 12:01 AM EST, Fri January 31, 2025

In an aerial view, the container ship Tampa Triumph passes through the Miraflores Locks as it transits the Panama Canal on September 20, 2023 in Panama City, Panama. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

鸟瞰图，2023年9月20日，巴拿马巴拿马城，集装箱船坦帕凯旋号在穿越巴拿马运河时通过米拉弗洛雷斯船闸。
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CNN — Secretary of State Marco Rubio embarks soon on his inaugural trip as the United States’ top diplomat. His first stop, Panama could prove to be the most contentious on the itinerary following President Donald Trump’s repeated demands for control of the Panama Canal.

美国国务卿马尔科·卢比奥（Marco Rubio）即将踏上他作为美国最高外交官的首次访问。他的第一站，巴拿马，可能是在唐纳德·特朗普总统一再要求控制巴拿马运河之后的行程中最具争议的目的地。

“Panamanian sovereignty over the canal is clear. There is no discussion on this issue. The soul of a country is not up for discussion,” Panama President José Raúl Mulino emphasized on Thursday, just days ahead of his scheduled meeting with Rubio.

巴拿马总统何塞·劳尔·穆利诺（José Raúl Mulino）周四强调说，“巴拿马对运河的主权是明确的。没有关于这个问题的讨论。一个国家的灵魂不容讨论，“就在他与卢比奥预定会晤的几天前。

Yet the Trump administration doesn’t seem to be letting this go. In his inauguration speech, Trump mentioned Panama six times, more than any other foreign country. He and Republican allies are increasingly painting a dark scenario where the Panama Canal has secretly fallen under Chinese military control – arguing that’s why the US needs to seize the canal back from Beijing’s clutches.

然而，特朗普政府似乎并没有放手。特朗普在就职演说中提到巴拿马六次，比其他任何的外国都多。他和共和党盟友越来越多地描绘着巴拿马运河被秘密的落入中国的军事控制的黑暗情节——他们认为这就是为什么美国需要从北京的魔掌中夺回运河的原因。

“A foreign power today possesses, through their companies, which we know are not independent, the ability to turn the canal into a choke point in a moment of conflict,” Rubio himself insisted during his Senate confirmation hearings this month.

“今天，一个外国势力通过他们的公司（我们知道这些公司并不独立），有能力在冲突时刻将运河变成咽喉要道，”卢比奥本人在本月的参议院确认听证会上坚称。
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“That is a direct threat to the national interest and security of the United States,” he added.

“这是对美国国家利益和安全的直接威胁，”他补充说。
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As ominous as it all sounds, the reality is not so straight forward. Here is a fact check about claims Trump’s administration has made about the Panama Canal.

尽管这一切听起来如此的不祥/不吉利，但现实并不那么简单。以下是关于特朗普政府对巴拿马运河的说法的事实核查。

Is the Panama Canal under Chinese control?

巴拿马运河是否在中国控制之下？

Trump has long complained about the “bad deal” Jimmy Carter made when he returned the canal to Panama in 1977. But he’s been ratcheting up the rhetoric and falsehoods from the very start of his second term.

特朗普长期以来一直抱怨吉米·卡特（JimmyCarter）在1977年将运河归还给巴拿马时所做的“糟糕交易”。但从其第二个任期一开始，他就一直在加强该言论和谎言。

“Panama’s promise to us has been broken,” Trump said during his inaugural speech. “Above all China is operating the Panama Canal and we didn’t give it to China, we gave it to Panama and we are taking it back!”

“巴拿马对我们的承诺被打破了，”特朗普在就职演说中说。“最重要的是，中国正在运营巴拿马运河，我们没有把它交给中国，我们把它给了巴拿马，我们正在把它收回来！”

On his Truth Social network, Trump has also claimed – without proof – that Chinese soldiers have been deployed to the canal and that “Panama is, with great speed attempting to take down the 64% of signs which are written in Chinese. They are all over the Zone.”

在他的Truth Social网络上，特朗普还在没有证据的情况下声称，中国士兵已被部署到运河上，并且声称“巴拿马，正在以极快的速度试图拆除中文标识，这些标识有64%是中文，遍布整个区域。

But the “Zone” – a former American enclave bordering the canal – hasn’t existed since 1979.

但该“区域”——一块与运河接壤的前美国飞地——自1979年就不存在了。

And if the scenario Trump describes sounds like the plot of a movie, well, it was. In the 2001 movie “The Tailor of Panama,” which starred Pierce Brosnan and Geoffrey Rush, the US invades Panama after receiving bogus intelligence that China is trying to secretly buy the canal.

如果特朗普描述的场景听起来像电影的情节，那么，确实如此。在2001年由皮尔斯·布鲁斯南（Pierce Brosnan）和杰弗里·拉什（Geoffrey Rush）主演的电影《巴拿马裁缝》（The Tailor of Panama）中，美国在收到中国试图秘密购买运河的虚假情报后入侵巴拿马。

In reality, since 2000 the canal has been operated by the Panama Canal Authority, whose administrator, deputy administrator and 11-member board are sexted by Panama’s government but operate independently.

实际上，自2000年以来，运河一直由巴拿马运河管理局运营，其管理人、副管理人和11名成员的董事会都由巴拿马政府选出，但独立运作。

The majority of the canal’s employees are Panamanians and Panama designates which companies are awarded the contracts to run the ports near the canal. Ships transiting the 50-mile-long canal are required to be piloted by local captains that work for the Canal Authority.

运河的大多数员工是巴拿马人，巴拿马指定哪些公司获得经营运河附近港口的合同。穿越这条50英里长的运河的船只必须由为运河管理局工作的当地船长驾驶。

While there is real concern about increased Chinese investment in Latin America, Panama included, to date there is no evidence of Chinese military activity in Panama. At his press conference on Thursday, Mulino said the US government has yet to provide his administration with any proof they had gathered of Chinese control of the canal.

虽然人们对中国在拉丁美洲（包括巴拿马）的投资增加确实感到担忧，但迄今为止，没有证据表明中国在巴拿马有军事活动。在周四的新闻发布会上，穆利诺表示，美国政府尚未向他的政府提供收集到的有关中国控制运河的任何证据。

Aerial view of the Panama Canal in the area of Pedro Miguel locks, in Panama City on December 13, 2022. Luis Acosta/AFP/Getty Images

鸟瞰图，2022年12月13日，巴拿马城佩德罗·米格尔船闸区的巴拿马运河。

So what does Rubio mean by ‘a foreign power’ in the Panama Canal?

那么，卢比奥所说的巴拿马运河中的“外国势力”是什么意思呢？

The Trump administration seems to be pointing to the fact that Panama Ports – part of a subsidiary of the Hong Kong-based conglomerate CK Hutchison Holdings – operates terminals on the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the canal. So do several other companies.

特朗普政府似乎在指向这样一个事实，即巴拿马港口公司（隶属于香港（特区）企业集团长江和记实业的子公司）在运河的大西洋和太平洋两侧运营终端码头。其他几家公司也是如此。

Hutchinson was first granted the concession over the two ports in 1997 when Panama and the US jointly administered the canal. That same year, control of Hong Kong – where Hutchinson is based – was transferred from the United Kingdom to China.

哈金森/和记黄埔于 1997 年首次获得这两个港口/码头的特许权，当时巴拿马和美国共同管理运河。同年，香港（特区）的控制权（和记黄埔总部所在地）从英国转移到中国。

While falling under Beijing’s sphere of influence, Hutchison is hardly some murky Chinese military front company. It’s publicly traded, not known to be on any US blacklists and their subsidiary Hutchinson Ports is one of the world’s largest port operators, overseeing 53 ports in 24 countries, including for other US allies such as the UK, Australia and Canada.

虽然属于北京的势力范围，但和记黄埔绝不是什么不可告人的中国军事前线公司。其是公开交易的，未被列入任何美国黑名单，其子公司和记黄埔港口是世界上最大的港口运营商之一，负责监管 24 个国家/地区的 53 个港口，包括英国、澳大利亚和加拿大等其他的美国盟友。

Crucially, Hutchison does not control access to the Panama Canal. Workers at their two ports only load and unload containers onto ships and supply them with fuel. And they’re not the only ones – three other ports in the vicinity of the canal are operated by competing companies providing similar services.

至关重要的是，和记黄埔无法控制巴拿马运河的通行。这两个港口的工人只将集装箱装卸到船上，并提供燃料。而且，他们并不是唯一的港口——运河附近的其他三个由竞争公司运营港口都提供类似的服务。

Since Trump’s comments, Panama’s government has announced an audit of the Hutchison-owned Panama Ports. The company says it is complying fully and has even invited Rubio to visit its ports.

自从特朗普发表评论，巴拿马政府已公布了和记黄埔经营的巴拿马港口的审计报告。该公司表示，其完全符合（规定），甚至邀请了卢比奥参观其港口。

“An invitation has been extended to the Secretary of State to visit our terminal facilities in Panama during his scheduled trip to the country,” Hutchison Ports spokesperson Anthony Tam said in an email to CNN.

“已向国务卿发出了一份邀请，在他预定的巴拿马之行期间参观我们在巴拿马的码头设施，”和记黄埔港口发言人安东尼·谭（Anthony Tam）在给CNN的一封电子邮件中说。
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The State Department would not comment if Rubio planned to accept the invitation to visit what the Trump administration has described – incorrectly — as a de facto Chinese military outpost in Panama.

卢比奥是否打算接受邀请，访问这个特朗普政府-不正确的-描述为事实上的中国在巴拿马的军事前哨，美国国务院没有对此评论。

Does the US have any legal standing to seize the Panama Canal?

美国是否有任何法律地位来夺取巴拿马运河？

Under the 1977 treaty with Panama, the US returned the canal with the understanding that the waterway remain neutral.

根据1977年与巴拿马的条约，美国归还运河，但前提是该水道/航道保持中立。

According to the agreement, the US could intervene militarily if the canal’s operations were disrupted by internal conflict or a foreign power. This seems to be what Trump is referencing when he threatens to “take the canal back.”

根据协议，如果运河的运营因内部冲突或外国势力而中断，美国可以进行军事干预。这似乎是特朗普威胁要“夺回运河”时所引用的（依据）。

But it would be hard to argue that the waterway’s operations are disrupted or endangered. Following the expansion of the canal, which began in 2007 and Panama financed at a cost of more than $5 billion, more cargo than ever runs through the canal than it did during the years of US administration.

但很难说这条航道的运营受到了干扰或受到威胁。随着2007年开始的运河扩建，巴拿马筹集了超过50亿美元的资金，通过运河的货物比以往任何时候都多，超过美国政府管理时期。
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A US occupation of the canal would fly in the face of international law and the treaty the US agreed to.

美国占领该运河将与国际法和美国同意的条约背道而驰。

Ok, but theoretically what would happen if the US tried to take the Panama Canal?

好吧，但从理论上讲，如果美国试图夺取巴拿马运河会发生什么？

Since the 1989 US invasion that deposed dictator Manuel Noriega, Panama does not have an army but Panamanians are fiercely protective of the canal which is central to their national identity. And despite the saber rattling coming from the Trump administration, attempting to force the issue would pose major complications for two other top US priorities: migration and the economy.

自 1989 年美国入侵推翻独裁者曼努埃尔·诺列加（Manuel Noriega）以来，巴拿马没有军队，但巴拿马人极力保护运河，这是他们国家身份的核心。尽管特朗普政府对此剑拔弩张/磨刀霍霍，但试图武力解决这一问题将使美国的另外两个首要任务——移民和经济——引发复杂后果。

The canal isn’t the only critical passageway that Panama controls. Threatening Panama militarily could throw open the Darien Gap, the jungle crossing where hundreds of thousands of migrants make their way north from South America to the US.

运河并不是巴拿马控制的唯一重要通道。在军事上威胁巴拿马可能会开放达连隘口（Darien Gap），这是数十万（非法）移民从南美洲向北前往美国的丛林通道。

Mulino had promised to close the gap to northbound migrants with Trump’s help – but don’t count on him honoring old commitments if US boots touch Panamanian soil.

穆利诺曾承诺在特朗普的帮助下减少北上移民的数量——但如果美国的靴子碰到巴拿马的土地，就不要指望他会兑现旧/之前的承诺了。

Americans would also feel the heat. At least 25,000 US citizens live in Panama who would likely be placed in harm’s way by any US military action to seize the canal. Disruption of the canal’s operations would likely send prices of US goods from automobiles to sneakers soaring – about 40% of US container traffic passes through the waterway.

美国人也会感受到这股愤怒。至少有25,000名美国公民生活在巴拿马，他们可能会因美国任何夺取运河的军事行动而处于危险之中。运河运营中断可能会导致美国商品的价格飙升，从汽车到运动鞋——大约40%的美国集装箱运输通过该水道。

And of course, backing out of a decades-old deal and trying to wrest the canal back by force from an ally would be a propaganda goldmine for Russia and China which have both called for maintaining neutrality in the canal.

而且当然的，退出一项长达数十年的协议并试图从盟友那里用武力抢夺回运河，将会是俄罗斯和中国的宣传大金矿，这两个国家都呼吁该运河保持中立。
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Any US military action would also further inflame tensions in Latin America where mass deportations have already tested Washington’s partnerships in the region.

美国的任何军事行动都将进一步激化拉丁美洲的紧张局势，大规模驱逐已经在考验华盛顿在该地区的伙伴关系。

Trump’s dream of flying a US flag over the Panama Canal would come at a much higher cost than he appears to have calculated.

特朗普在巴拿马运河上悬挂美国国旗的梦想，将付出的代价比他表面得出的要高得多。