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我们之前对特朗普关税政策的判断错了吗?

程奇奇 2859
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评论翻译
@hughw2377
Just because iphone is not affected, doesn't mean the grocery prices will be going down. I think people focusing on phones too much and not about everyday goods that you spend more yearly than silly phones.
 
别以为iPhone没受影响就意味着食品价格会下降。人们太关注手机了,却忽略了每年在日用品上的花费远高于那些愚蠢的手机。
 
@maartenaalsmeer
"The entire world is calling the US because they need our markets" Sure, miss Leavitt. From '50 countries are calling us!' to More than 70 countries are on the phone right now!" to "the entire world is calling!" While in the real world no-one is calling the US for a deal that will be ripped up at whim. The US lost in a few weeks that it took 80 years to build: credibility. From world-leading to Billy-no-mates.
 
"全世界都在给美国打电话,因为他们需要我们的市场" - 当然啦,Leavitt女士。从"50个国家在联系我们!"到"现在有70多个国家在通话中!"再到"全世界都在打电话!"而现实是根本没人会给一个随时可能撕毁协议的国家打电话。美国用几周时间就毁掉了80年建立的信用,从世界领袖变成了孤家寡人。
 
@CameronFussner
U.S. policy on China, like tariffs or trade restrictions, can disrupt supply chains, raise costs, and hurt stocks in tech and manufacturing. Tighter policies may weigh on multinational companies, while improved relations could boost market confidence, causing volatility.
 
美国对华政策如关税或贸易限制会扰乱供应链、推高成本,损害科技和制造业股票。收紧政策可能拖累跨国公司,而改善关系则可能提振市场信心并导致市场波动。
 
@Franklin-gq4si
I think the whole thing about holding stocks for long term will always apply. So I think you should get a quality broker who is able to analyze and pick stocks that will do well in the long term, else you will be in a long bear ride.
 
我认为长期持有股票的策略永远适用,所以你应该找一个能分析并挑选长期表现良好股票的优质经纪人,否则你将经历漫长的熊市。
 
@benlogan430
Trump is good at bankruptcy! He's got a perfect bankruptcy record! Why anyone thinks he's good at business is crazy to me.
 
特朗普最擅长破产!他保持着完美的破产记录!居然有人认为他擅长经商,这让我觉得不可思议。
 
@rtalbot87
"playing Chicken with China is a losing battle". It is about time people realise this ! Thank you for being so public with you view.
 
"与中国玩胆小鬼游戏必输无疑"。人们早该意识到这一点了!感谢你公开表达这个观点。
 
@kevinc.4758
How can cabinet members overlook the reality that significant inflation becomes inevitable when the cost of imported goods rises so dramatically and swiftly? It's hard to believe they could be this naive or ignorant. The 90-day pause applies solely to the reciprocal tariffs, while tariffs on automobiles, auto parts, steel, and aluminum remain in place. This situation directly and indirectly impacts every American.
 
内阁成员怎能忽视进口商品成本急剧快速上升必然导致严重通胀的现实?很难相信他们会如此天真或无知。90天的暂停仅适用于互惠关税,而对汽车、汽车零部件、钢铁和铝的关税仍然有效。这种情况直接和间接地影响着每个美国人。
 
@science_and_facts_please
During Donald Trump's first term, he presided over the worst economy since 1946. The unemployment rate reached its highest level since the Great Depression. The U.S. bankruptcy rate increased by 8%, farm bankruptcies rose by 20%, and the national debt grew by 40.43%. Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit outlook from stable to negative.
 
在特朗普的第一个任期内,他领导了自1946年以来最糟糕的经济。失业率达到大萧条以来的最高水平,美国的破产率上升了8%,农场破产增加了20%,国债增长了40.43%。穆迪将美国的信用展望从稳定下调至负面。
 
@elenalatici9568
1946 was horrible? I was born that year. I've always suspected my father dropped out of college because I was born. I asked him once and he said no, but what was he going to say? Yeah, you ruined my life? College was paid for too, by the GI bill. My father was an incredibly smart man, most likely a genius.
 
1946年很糟糕吗?我就是那年出生的。我一直怀疑我的父亲是因为我出生才辍学的。我问过他一次,他说不是,但他能怎么说?"是啊,你毁了我的人生"?而且他的大学学费是通过《退伍军人权利法案》支付的。我的父亲是个极其聪明的人,他很可能是个天才。
 
@bpz8175
@elenalatici9568 the US only fully recovered from the Great Depression via the WW2 war economy. When millions of rifles, bullets and shells were no longer necessary that means a large amount of jobs goes away too. WW2 ended in 1945, so 1946 is probably when most demobilization happens. Later in the 40s they fixed it by lending europe money to buy American surplus (the Marshall plan).
 
@elenalatici9568 美国是通过二战的战时经济才完全从大萧条中恢复的。当不再需要数百万支步枪、子弹和炮弹时,就意味着大量的工作岗位也随之消失。二战于1945年结束,所以1946年可能是复员最集中的时期。上世纪40年代后期,他们通过借钱给欧洲购买美国过剩的产品(马歇尔计划)解决了这个问题。
 
@geofflewis8599
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), or Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA), was a proposed trade agreement between 12 Pacific Rim economies: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, and the United States. In the United States, the proposal was signed on 4 February 2016 but not ratified as a result of significant domestic political opposition. Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump made opposition to the agreement part of their 2016 platform. After taking office, the newly elected President Donald Trump formally withdrew the United States from TPP in January 2017,[5] therefore ensuring the TPP could not be ratified as required and did not enter into force. The remaining countries negotiated a new trade agreement called Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, which incorporated most of the provisions of the TPP and which entered into force on 30 December 2018.
 
《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)是12个环太平洋经济体之间拟议的贸易协定,包括澳大利亚、文莱、加拿大、智利、日本、马来西亚、墨西哥、新西兰、秘鲁、新加坡、越南和美国。在美国,该提案于2016年2月4日签署,但因国内强烈的政治反对而未获批准,希拉里·克林顿和唐纳德·特朗普都将反对该协定作为2016年竞选纲领的一部分。新当选的特朗普总统上任后于2017年1月正式宣布美国退出TPP,从而确保TPP无法按要求获得批准并生效。其余国家谈判达成了新协定《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》,该协定纳入了TPP的大部分条款,并于2018年12月30日生效。
 
@OffWhiteDaz
Trump said he would run America like one of his businesses. The guy bankrupted a casino. What did Americans think was going to happen
 
特朗普说过他会像经营自己的企业一样管理美国,这个家伙可是连赌场都能搞破产的。美国人到底期待会发生什么?
 
@liefde1911
Amerika should watch how countries moving now. As European I see clear we talk at the moment a lot in Asia, South America, Canada. Japan is talking with China!!! America, you will stand alone.
 
美国应该看看各国现在的动向。作为欧洲人,我清楚地看到我们现在与亚洲、南美、加拿大频繁交流。日本正在与中国对话!!!美国,你将孤立无援。
 
@sooma-ai
The video discusses Trump's tariff policies, criticizing them as incoherent and harmful to the US economy. Analysts argue these policies expose Trump's lack of economic understanding and could lead to widespread negative impacts on businesses and consumers.
 
视频讨论了特朗普的关税政策,批评了其缺乏连贯性且对美国经济有害。分析人士认为这些政策暴露了特朗普缺乏经济理解力,可能给企业和消费者带来广泛的负面影响。
 
@mervynstephens2808
In order to buy a cheaper , laptop or iPhone or any of the latest tech products one needs to be working to earn the dollars to be able to spend the dollar. Tariffs close small businesses and by extension causes a rise in unemployment and yet your president insists that this is the greatest word.
 
要买更便宜的笔记本电脑、iPhone或任何最新科技产品,人们需要工作赚钱才行。关税将导致小企业倒闭,进而造成失业率上升,而你们的总统却坚称这是最伟大的举措。
 
@PandaRamble
I applaud the way you showed this which is rare in the overall media landscape: there is no strategy, no long plan, all it is a kneejerk reaction and there is no point of analysing "governing on a stream of consciousness". Excellent point BTW!
 
我赞赏你展示这一点的方式,这在整体媒体环境中很罕见:没有战略,没有长远计划,全是膝跳反应,分析"意识流式执政"毫无意义。顺便说一句,你的观点很棒!
 
@ronkirk5099
Now let the tariff carve outs and exemptions for sexted businesses begin and corruption in the U.S. reaches levels only seen in third world countries. The same thing happened during Trump's first term with his tariff nonsense.
 
现在让特定企业的关税减免和豁免开始吧,美国的腐败将达到只有第三世界国家才有的水平。特朗普第一个任期的关税闹剧期间就发生过同样的事。
 
@reggienaidoo6514
I am South African, and we are supposed to be third-world . Our country is developing fast , and there are areas that are more first world than the US .
 
我是南非人,我们被认为是第三世界。我们的国家正在快速发展,有些地方比美国更像第一世界。
 
@ulrikewei3748
As a Non-American I would REALLY appreciate it if all of you politic talkers would finally acknowledge and point it out that this, YOUR, government is not only hurting Americans, but ALSO people all around the world with these erratic economic lunacies.
If you don't, well I assume you do not care - and that would be nothing less than once more a sad statement of american arrogance. Great. Again.
 
作为非美国人,如果你们这些政治评论者最终能承认并指出你们的政府不仅伤害美国人,还用这些反复无常的经济疯狂行为伤害全世界人民,我将非常感激。
如果你们不这样做,那我只能认为你们不在乎——这不过是又一次可悲的美国傲慢宣言。太棒了,又一次。
 
@kontrygrll01amerika54
We 50% of Americans who are rational and intelligent know it is tanking the rest of the Wprld, too, but there is nothing we can do about it. Only Congress, in other words the House of Representatives and the Senate, can do something but the majority in both houses are Republicans who are insteadv helping donnie do this travesty.
Meanwhile, the stress and horror at trump's actions we experience daily is immense and impacting the health of us and our friends while we hope we do not lose everything we own. I have 4 more years until my mortgage is paid off and I am trying to figure out how to pay it off now, so the coming depression does not give the bank the opportunity to take my home from under me. Self-preservation is the name of the game today for us individual Americans.
 
我们50%的理性聪明的美国人也知道这正在拖累世界其他地区,但我们无能为力。只有国会,也就是众议院和参议院能做些什么,但两院多数都是共和党人,他们反而在帮助特朗普实施这场闹剧。
与此同时,我们每天经历的由特朗普行动带来的压力和恐惧是巨大的,它正在影响我们和朋友的健康,而我们希望不要失去所拥有的一切。我还有4年才能还清房贷,现在正想办法提前还清,这样即将到来的萧条就不会给银行夺走我房子的机会。对我们这些普通的美国人来说,自我保护是现在的首要任务。
 
@420eu4ia
American blue states can join canada if you want to be free from that nonsense. America is so devided . May as well be 2 separate countries
 
美国的蓝州如果想摆脱这种荒谬,可以加入加拿大。美国是如此分裂,不如干脆分成两个国家。
 
@OgarnijmytoRazem
I'm still trying to understand how could Americans make such a decission. Like nothing he did so far is surprising, he was talking about this for years. How could you not see that will happen?
On the other hand two years ago I was on a trip to USA. New Yrok, Boston, Philadelphia and Washington. And what struck me back then was how many people where talking instead of listening. I was in a bathroom on unx Station in Washington and one guy attacked other, threatining to destroy his smartphone. I just screamed: "Hey, what's going on?" And the guy left seeing how he is one against two. Although he stayed in a bathroom. Then I left a bathroom and saw some security people. I went to them and told them about it and that guy stayed there and he may be a threat to other people. I had to repeat it like three times before security guy stopped trying to be funny and understood that his uniform suggests that dealing with this is his job. And even in the end he still looked like: "Really? I thought my job is to hung out with my friend and make laughs." That was a moment when I asked myself: "How is this country even working at all? How is it not collapsing because of useless workers?" Well, I guess it is collapsing now. Incompetent people vote for themselves.
 
我仍在试图理解美国人怎么会做出这样的决定。他迄今为止所做的一切都不令人意外,这些东西他谈论多年了,你们怎么会看不到这会发生?
另一方面,两年前我去美国旅行,我去了纽约、波士顿、费城和华盛顿,当时让我震惊的是有那么多人在说话而不是倾听。我在华盛顿联合车站的洗手间里,一个家伙攻击另一个人,威胁要毁掉他的智能手机。我只是喊道:"嘿,怎么回事?"那家伙看到自己以一敌二就离开了。不过他仍留在洗手间里,然后我离开洗手间时看到了一些保安人员。我走过去告诉他们这件事,说那家伙还在里面,可能会对其他人构成威胁。我不得不重复了大约三次,保安才停止试图搞笑,明白他的制服意味着处理这种事是他的工作。即使到最后,他看起来还是像在说:"真的吗?我以为我的工作是和朋友闲逛逗乐子"。那一刻我问自己:"这个国家到底是怎么运转的?怎么会还没有因为这些无用的工作人员而崩溃?"好吧,我猜现在它正在崩溃,因为无能的人投票选出了同类。
 
@TimmahST
9:20 goto our elected official? That might work in some states, but not in Idaho. Some things have 60-70% favorability based on poles and they vote against it. Some things have 80% unfavorable opinion, and they vote yes. They are voting based on what the extremists tell then to vote, and they won't listen to their constituents. And I'm sure that is happening in many of the 60%+ red states. They don't care who they are sexting, as long as it's an R. And they don't care if it is ruining America, as long as it is owning the libs
 
9分20秒说去找我们选出的官员?这在某些州可能有用,但在爱达荷州不行。有些事根据民调有60-70%的支持率,但他们投票反对。有些事有80%的反对意见,他们却投赞成票。他们根据极端分子告诉他们的方式投票,不会听取选民的意见。我确信这在许多比例超过60%的红州都在发生。他们不在乎选谁,只要是共和党就行。他们不在乎这是否在摧毁美国,只要能"气死自由派"就好。
 
@BenBurley-o4o
Trump didn't write art of the deal. It was written for him by a ghost writer. Trump has probably not even read it. I'm not sure if he can read. Teump doesn't play 4d chess. He'd be lucky to know how to play checkers. He bankrupt at least 2 casinos.
 
《交易的艺术》不是特朗普写的,是由代笔作家为他写的。特朗普可能甚至没有读过它,因为我不确定他是否识字。特朗普不是在玩四维象棋,他能知道怎么玩跳棋就不错了。他至少搞破产了两家赌场。
 
@BlueberryPie1962
First; Show me proof that the entire world is calling the United States of America! Second; Come to Switzerland and see how many normal citizens are ordering from the huge cheaper product choice China has to offer, not from America. Most, if not all consumer products come from Europe. Same with furniture, and I don't know what else right now. I order nothing from the U.S. And now, I will not even travel to the U.S. anymore, which I have done many times before!
 
首先,拿出证据证明全世界都在给美国打电话!其次,来瑞士看看有多少普通市民从中国而不是美国提供的海量更便宜的产品中选择。这里的大多数(如果不是全部)消费品来自欧洲,家具也一样,我现在还想不出其他例子。我不从美国订购任何东西。而现在,我甚至再也不会去美国旅行了,尽管我以前去过很多次!
 
@petracastro6021
The archilles heel of America is the bond market, as we have seen. Other nations like Japan, China, Canada or the EU could sell some of their US treasury bonds. This would really hurt. Anyway there is a move towards gold or German treasury bonds.
 
美国的债券市场确实是其致命的弱点。日本、中国、加拿大或欧盟等国若抛售部分美债,将造成重创。目前全球正转向黄金和德国国债等避险资产。
 
@gunterschuba
I hope your president has been informed that trade worldwide with the dollar as a reserve currency has fallen from 59% to 43% in the last 3 weeks! This means for you, Mr. President, that you have degraded the US from a leader to a normal player. Trust in the US is used up and difficult to restore!
 
希望你们的总统知道,过去三周全球贸易中美元储备货币占比已从59%暴跌至43%!这意味着美国已从领导者降级为普通玩家。国际社会对美国的信任已消耗殆尽,难以修复。
 
@richardhudson1243
Most Americans find it hard to retire comfortably amid economy downtrend. Some have close to nothing going into retirement, my question is, will you pay off mortgage as a near-retiree, or spread money for cashflow, to afford lifestyle after retirement?
 
经济下行中多数美国人难以舒适退休,有些人退休时几乎身无分文。我的问题是:作为临近退休的人,你会先还清房贷,还是保留现金流以维持退休生活?
 
@benjamindavidson22
If Trump is advocating for economic chaos, it could be part of a strategy in which market crashes are perceived as chances for the ultra-rich to acquire assets at reduced prices. Annually, those with substantial capital tend to benefit disproportionately during periods of volatility
 
若特朗普蓄意制造经济混乱,这可能是让超级富豪借机低价收购资产的策略。每逢市场动荡,资本大鳄总能攫取超额收益。
 
@JimBanksy
You're absolutely right to call out the deeper strategy behind the chaos—because it's not just random. It's distraction and manipulation 101. Trump's return to the political spotlight isn't some heroic comeback—it's a calculated move to dodge accountability, consolidate power, and rewrite the rules to serve himself and his inner circle. The "Make America Great Again" slogan? That's just marketing. The real goal was always personal gain, immunity, and control.
 
你说破了混乱背后的深层策略——这绝非偶然,而是典型的转移注意力和操纵手段。特朗普重返政坛绝非英雄归来,而是逃避责任、巩固权力、改写规则的利益算计。"让美国再次伟大"只是营销口号,其真实的目的始终是谋取私利、豁免权和掌控力。
 
@BornToRaiseEyebrows2687
Australla currently does five times more trade with China than it does with the US and I can only imagine this increasing over the coming years.
 
目前澳大利亚对华贸易额是对美贸易的五倍,未来这一差距只会继续扩大。
 
@Mrbuckaroonie..
I know for a fact Australia is sending more to China as they don't want to pay the US tariffs. Winner winner chicken dinner. USA misses out. China gets more Australian beef and grain tariff free and Australia gets more money from exporting.
 
澳大利亚确实在加大对华出口以规避美国的关税,这是双赢的局面:中国获得更多免税的澳牛和谷物,澳大利亚赚取更多出口收入,而美国只能干瞪眼。
 
@rogerreynolds2119
"You can't govern through a stream of consciousness". What a brilliant sunmmation of Trunp's mental capability. My cat is more aware of what's going on than Trump.
 
"不能靠意识流治国"——这是对特朗普心智能力的绝妙总结。我家的猫都比他对局势更有判断力。
 
@JR-xj2vr
Tomorrow trump will eliminate tariffs on bubble gum, Tuesday will be popcorn, Wednesday will be lollipops, Thursday will be Snickers. Then Friday all will be tariffed again…the following Monday, all will once again be eliminated. This is exhausting……
 
明天取消泡泡糖关税,周二轮到爆米花,周三棒棒糖,周四士力架...周五全部重新加征,下周一又取消...这简直让人精疲力尽。
 
@ritafoster4958
Trump backed off his insane tariffs, when it was pointed out to him that the bond market was also crashing.Historically when the stock market starts to tank, the bond market rises. It is the place investors run to, in order to protect their assets during a market crash. To have it also crashing at the same time was inconceivable. The U.S. has trapped itself in a corner by having such enormous debt. Countries around the world, such as Japan, China, Britain, Canada, Switzerland, Luxembourg hold large amounts of U.S. treasury bonds. In other words, U.S. debt. If they were to begin selling off these bonds in large amounts, the U.S. would be bankrupted. When Canadian P.M. Mark Carney went to visit France and Britain as his first visit as P.M. during Trump's Tariff Terrors, he suggested that this was one sure way to bring Trump to heel. P.M. Carney has a PhD in economics, was the Governor of Canada's Central Bank, and the only foreigner to serve as Governor of Britain's Central Bank during the extreme upheaval of Bexit, which he advised strongly against. He steered them through it without them sinking completely and was admired for his calm steady approach to a bad situation. So Trump and his flying monkeys are way out of their league dealing with P.M. Carney. If Trump again tries to wreak havoc this way, the threat remains and the U.S. can be controlled by these countries.
 
当被告知债市也在崩盘时,特朗普才撤回那些疯狂的关税。历史经验表明,股市暴跌时债市通常会上涨——因为这是投资者在市场崩盘时保护资产的避风港。股债双杀的局面简直匪夷所思。美国已被巨额债务逼入绝境:日本、中国、英国、加拿大、瑞士和卢森堡等国持有大量的美债。若这些国家大规模抛售美债,美国将立即破产。加拿大总理马克·卡尼在"特朗普关税恐慌"期间首访法英时就暗示,这正是制衡特朗普的有效手段。这位经济学博士出身的加央行前行长还是英国脱欧动荡期间唯一担任过英国央行行长的外国人(他强烈反对脱欧),他以其稳健的作风带领英国渡过了危机。特朗普及其党羽根本不是卡尼的对手。若特朗普再次兴风作浪,这些债权国完全可以通过美债掌控美国的命脉。
 
 
关键词: 特朗普 关税 政策
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