美知乎讨论：过去 10 年间，印度与中国之间的 GDP 差距，无论是总体 GDP 还是人均 GDP，是在缩小还是在扩大？
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Karthik Bala Follow
Gross Domestic Product is just a term for public consumption and newspaper headlines
Economists call it ‘Resource Output', the cumulative value of goods and services created in an economy within its periphery, by all the participants standardized to the US Dollar
Participants only include the workforce - the present workers, the potential workers in training or ready to seek employment and excludes the older persons, younger kids who are not part of the workforce yet
国内生产总值不过是面向公众消费和新闻头条的一个术语。
经济学家称之为"资源产出"，即在一个经济体边界内，所有参与者创造的货物与服务累计价值，并以美元为标准进行换算。
参与者仅包括劳动力——即现有工作者、正在接受培训或准备求职的潜在工作者，而不包括尚未成为劳动力组成部分的老年人和年幼儿童。
The assumption is the resource output is completely disbursed into the economy, consumed and ultimately is distrubuted across the entire population, which is what 'Per Capita GDP' denotes
The assumption is Resource output = Gross Domestic Product
In 2015, China had a Resource output of around 11 Trillion Dollars and roughly 940 Million participants
The average participant generated approximately 11,700 Dollars of value to the Chinese economy
其假设是资源产出完全流入经济体系，被消费并最终分配至全体人口，这正是"人均国内生产总值"所代表的含义。
假设资源产出等于国内生产总值：
2015 年，中国的资源产出约为 11 万亿美元，参与者约 9.4 亿人。
平均每位参与者为中国经济创造了约 11700 美元的价值。
In 2015, a High Value economy with population the size of China, required a minimum of 20,400 Dollars of value per participant and a Medium Value economy with the same population required a minimum of 9,100 Dollars of value per participant
So China firmly came in as a Medium Value Economy
Mathematically it was 55 per cent of a High Value Economy
2015 年，一个与中国人口规模相当的高价值经济体，要求每位参与者至少创造 20400 美元的价值；而同等人口规模的中等价值经济体，则要求每位参与者至少创造 9100 美元的价值
因此，中国坚定地迈入了中等价值经济体的行列。
从数学角度看，其价值相当于高等价值经济体的 55%。
In 2015, India had a resource output of 2.38 Trillion Dollars and roughly around 700 million participants
The average participant generated approximately 3,400 Dollars of value to the Indian economy
In 2015, a High Value economy with population the size of India, required a minimum of 20,400 Dollars of value per participant and a Medium Value economy with the same population required a minimum of 9,100 Dollars of value per participant
2015 年，印度的资源产出为 2.38 万亿美元，参与者数量约为 7 亿。
平均每位参与者为印度经济创造了约 3400 美元的价值。
2015 年，一个人口规模与印度相当的高价值经济体，要求每位参与者至少创造 20400 美元的价值；而同等人口规模的中等价值经济体，则要求每位参与者至少创造 9100 美元的价值。
So India firmly came in as a Low Value Economy
Mathematically it was 16 per cent of a High Value Economy and 36 per cent of a Medium Value Economy
If you see the latest numbers
China has a resource output of around 20 Trillion Dollars and 1 Billion participants
因此，印度被明确归为低价值经济体。
从数学上看，其价值仅相当于高价值经济体的 16%，中等价值经济体的 36%。
若查看最新数据
中国的资源产出约为 20 万亿美元，参与者达 10 亿人。
With 20,000 Dollars of resource generation per participant
Today a High Value economy with Chinas population requires 27,000 Dollars of resource creation and a Medium value economy around 12,000 Dollars
So China is transitioning to a High Value Economy and can be classified as a Medium - High Economy
Mathematically it is 74 per cent of a High Value economy
人均资源创造量为 2 万美元。
如今，一个拥有中国人口规模的高价值经济体需要人均创造 2.7 万美元资源，中等价值经济体则需要约 1.2 万美元。
因此中国正在向高价值经济体转型，可归类为中高收入经济体。
从数学角度看，这相当于一个高价值经济体的 74%。
So the Chinese economy has risen 34 per cent in value over the past 10 years (55 per cent to 74 per cent of a High Value economy)
With 60 million new participants, the economy has seen a 71 Per cent increase in the average resource output per participant (11,700 Dollars to 20,000 Dollars)
By the latest numbers
India has a 4 Trillion Dollar resource output today
因此，中国经济在过去十年中价值增长了 34%（从一个高价值经济体的 55%增长到 74%）
随着 6000 万新参与者的加入，经济中每位参与者的平均资源产出增长了 71%（从 11700 美元增加到 20000 美元）。
根据最新数据。
印度目前的资源产出为 4 万亿美元。
India has 800 Million participants
With 5,000 Dollars of resource generation per participant
Today a High Value economy with Chinas population requires 27,000 Dollars of resource creation and a Medium value economy around 12,000 Dollars
So India still remains firmly as a Low Value Economy
印度拥有 8 亿参与者。
每位参与者的资源创造额为 5000 美元。
如今，一个拥有中国人口规模的高价值经济体需要人均创造 2.7 万美元资源，中等价值经济体则需要约 1.2 万美元。
因此，印度依然稳固地保持着低价值经济体的地位。
Mathematically it is 42 per cent of a Medium Value economy
So the Indian economy has risen only 17 per cent in value over the past 10 years (36 per cent to 42 per cent of a Medium Value Economy)
With 100 million new participants, the economy has seen a 51.5 Per cent increase in the average resource output per participant (3,400 Dollars to 5,000 Dollars)
So if you look strictly like a true economist, the gap between the Chinese and Indian economies have been widening
从数学角度看，其价值仅相当于中等价值经济体的 42%。
这意味着过去十年间，印度经济的价值仅提升了 17%（从相当于中等价值经济体的 36%增至 42%）。
尽管新增了一亿参与者，但每位参与者的平均资源产出仅增长了 51.5%（从 3400 美元增至 5000 美元）。
因此，若严格以经济学家的视角审视，中国经济与印度经济之间的差距正在持续扩大。
China despite having 60 per cent of the new participants in its economy compared to India, has generated twice the value to it's economy that India has managed (34 per cent versus 17 per cent)
India, despite having 40 million additional participants to its economy , has managed only 72 per cent of the average resource output per participant when compared to China (51.5 per cent versus 71 per cent)
This is clearly depicted by the fact that the Chinese make many more high value products now with their own blueprint processes , supply chain control and their own proprietary control
India in the last 10 years, has remained low value, with marginal improvement (36 per cent to 42 per cent) with reliance on external blueprint processes, supply chains and proprietary control in most areas of manufacturing and engagement in low to middle value services
尽管中国新增经济参与者数量仅为印度的 60%，但其为经济创造的价值却是印度的两倍（34%对比 17%）。
尽管印度新增了 4000 万经济参与者，但每位参与者的平均资源产出仅为中国的 72%（51.5%对比 71%）。
这一差距的直观体现是：中国当前已能自主掌控技术方案、供应链及专有体系，生产出数量远超印度的高附加值产品。
过去十年，印度经济始终处于低附加值状态，仅实现边际改善（从 36%提升至 42%），其制造业多数领域依赖外部技术方案、供应链及专有控制体系，主要从事中低端服务业。
Optimists could say the Indian Government has spent this time investing heavily into the Indian economy and the returns would be reflected in the next ten or twenty years.
Pessimists would say this was the ‘Lost Decade' for India, where India had a series of directionless haphazard economic policies such as demonetization, Make in India, PLI and a bunch of other schemes, coupled with the pandemic & geopolitical military conflicts (The Ukraine war, The middle eastern conflict, The Indo Pak conflict)
乐观者可能会说，印度政府在此期间大力投资印度经济，回报将在未来十年或二十年内显现。
悲观者可能会说，这是印度的"失落的十年"，印度实施了一系列无方向、杂乱的经济政策，如废钞令、"印度制造"、生产挂钩激励计划以及一系列其他计划，再加上疫情和地缘政治军事冲突（俄乌战争、中东冲突、印巴冲突）。
It is therefore key to look more deeply into economic numbers
Merely looking at resource output and Gross Domestic Product might lead one to claim that China was 5.2 times the size of India in 2015 and is around 4.8 times the size of India in 2025 - so the gap has narrowed
However this is erroneous
Reality shows China has rapidly been rising it's value and heading fast towards becoming a high value economy while India is moving far more slowly (Half the speed) to becoming a Medium value economy
因此，更深入地审视经济数据至关重要。
仅看资源产出和国内生产总值，可能会让人声称中国在 2015 年是印度的 5.2 倍，到 2025 年大约是印度的 4.8 倍——因此差距已经缩小。
然而，这种看法是错误的。
现实表明，中国正迅速提升其价值，并快速迈向高价值经济体，而印度向中等价值经济体转型的速度则慢得多（仅为中国速度的一半）。
Even if these numbers are a bit here and there depending on source and accuracy , the general trends are undeniable
India despite 40 million more participants has generated 30 per cent lesser value to their economy than China. This bodes badly for a rising youth population.
Indias resource creation is racing against a rising population which adds more participants every day to the Indian economy. China is also adding participants but in lesser numbers due to their demographic trends.
即使这些数字因来源和准确性而略有出入，但总体趋势是不可否认的。
尽管参与者多出 4000 万，印度为其经济创造的价值却比中国少了 30%。这对日益增长的青年人口来说是个不祥之兆。
印度的资源创造正与不断增长的人口赛跑，每天都有更多参与者加入印度经济。中国也在增加参与者，但由于人口趋势，数量较少。
The next ten years (2025–2035) would be crucial
All the investments by the Indian Government presently being included as Government spending in the Gross Domestic Product, should start to show dividends
New Freeways should start generating intangible benefits
New Airports should start creating new opportunities
未来十年（2025 年至 2035 年）将至关重要。
目前印度政府所有投资均被计入国内生产总值中的政府支出，这些投资应开始产生回报。
新高速公路应开始产生无形效益。
新机场应开始创造新机遇。
New Ports should start raising trade potential
New Schools should start raising the average skills of the participants and the work force (Universities I mean)
This should be able to meet the value enhancement requirements of the Indian economy on its quest to upward mobility , inspite of 130–140 million participants expected to be added to the Indian economy in the next ten years cumulatively
新港口应开始提升贸易潜力。
新设立的院校（我指的是大学）应开始提升参与者和劳动力的平均技能水平。
这应能满足印度经济在追求向上流动过程中的价值提升需求，尽管未来十年印度经济预计将累计新增 1.3 亿至 1.4 亿参与者。
It is safe to say India has significantly more challenges than China does for the next 20–25 years.
Chinas problems will begin only after that.
Please feel free to engage with me on the economics
However please avoid the “Always speaking against India” diatribe.
可以稳妥地说，未来 20-25 年，印度面临的挑战将远大于中国。
中国的问题将在此之后才开始显现。
欢迎随时与我探讨经济学问题。
但请避免那种“总是贬低印度”的论调。
Deepak· Nov 18
Without Structural reforms, India is not going anywhere
we need …
-Police and Judicial reforms -Land reforms -labour reforms -Educational reforms
All the reforms are impossible in the current environment.
Till now, India has only grabbed the low-hanging fruit of global trade
没有结构性改革，印度将停滞不前。
我们需要…警务与司法改革、土地改革、劳动改革、教育改革。
在当前环境下，所有改革都是不可能实现的。
迄今为止，印度在全球贸易中只摘取了那些唾手可得的果实。
Aoi Yamamoto· Nov 18
You don’t need any of those. You just need democracy.
你们不需要任何那些东西。你们只需要民主。
凛冬将至 · Nov 22
The question is, who would believe that India's GDP reaches 4 trillion US dollars?
问题是，谁会相信印度的 GDP 能达到 4 万亿美元？
Zheng Duoduo· Nov 24
The cheapest things in India are religion and democracy, which hinder India's development from a human society to a modern society.
印度最廉价的东西是宗教和民主，它们阻碍了印度从人类社会向现代社会的发展。
Veena Sehgal· Nov 18
Suggest how we can catch up.
请建议我们如何追赶。
凛冬将至· Nov 22
Keep bragging! Or revise the GDP calculation method! Both approaches can instantly boost India's GDP—they can get as much GDP as they want!
继续吹嘘吧！或者修改 GDP 的计算方法！这两种方式都能瞬间提升印度的 GDP——他们想要多少 GDP 就能得到多少！
Thomas Jose Joseph Follow
Present government effort may not bear fruit. Self sufficientcy is a good idea. Many technologies reached this point taking centuries. Self sufficientcy may take that long. Allow FDIs without any restrictions is only way to catch up. Oligargs im India may not allow competition. Only China can challenge them. Unequal treatment may be challenged in our borders by their government. Like in China local brands may challenge foreign brands led by new entrepanuer class not the traditional indians trader turned industrialists families.
现任政府的努力可能无法立即见效。自给自足是个好理念，但许多技术历经数百年才发展到今天的地步，实现自给自足或许也需要同样漫长的时间。唯有放开对外资的限制，才可能迎头赶上。印度的寡头们未必会容许竞争，而真正能挑战他们的只有中国。若遭遇不公待遇，外国政府也可能在我国境内提出异议。就像在中国那样，挑战国际品牌的或许并非传统商贾出身的工业世家，而是新兴创业者群体主导的本土品牌。
Yousuf Khan Follow
The GDP per capita is known as the GDP-PPP (purchasing power parity). In terms of GDP-PPP, the highest country is China, followed by the US, followed by India. India is growing a bit faster, while China is growing a little slower (after decades of fast growth), and the USA is almost flat-lined. The top-3 are miles above everyone below it, including Russia, Japan, and Germany. And within the top-3, number 2 is miles above number 3, and number 1 is miles above number 2.
人均国内生产总值被称为 GDP-PPP（购买力平价）。就 GDP-PPP 而言，最高的国家是中国，其次是美国，然后是印度。印度的增长速度稍快一些，而中国的增长速度稍慢一些（经过几十年的快速增长后），美国则几乎停滞不前。前三名遥遥领先于包括俄罗斯、日本和德国在内的其他国家。而在前三名中，第二名遥遥领先于第三名，第一名又遥遥领先于第二名。
So India is growing faster than China, so the gap is narrowing, but it’s a huge gap to fill. India won’t catch upto China (#1) any time this century. But it’s still close enough to overtake the US within the century.
List of countries by GDP (PPP) - Wikipedia
因此，印度的增长速度超过中国，差距正在缩小，但仍有巨大的差距需要填补。印度在本世纪内不太可能赶上中国（排名第一）。但它仍然足够接近，有望在本世纪内超越美国。
各国国内生产总值（购买力平价）列表 - 维基百科（链接）
On Demand Reporter Follow
Over the past 10 years, the GDP gap between India and China has actually widened—both in total GDP and per capita GDP. Yep, not what you'd hope for if you're rooting for India to catch up fast.
Okay, so brace yourself. China's total GDP in 2025 is around $19.2 trillion, while India’s is about $4.2 trillion. That’s like China saying, “Hey, I’m gonna be 4.6 times bigger than you,” and India just blxing in disbelief. I mean, ouch. And it’s not just the total—per capita GDP is also a whole other story. China’s per capita GDP is roughly $13,000, while India’s is hovering around $2,900. That’s more than four times the difference. Like, imagine two people walking side by side, and one suddenly hops on a motorbike and zooms ahead. That’s China.
过去十年间，印度与中国之间的 GDP 差距实际上在扩大——无论是总量还是人均 GDP。是的，如果你期待印度快速追赶，这恐怕不是你想看到的结果。
好吧，准备好接受现实吧。2025 年中国的 GDP 总量约为 19.2 万亿美元，而印度大约是 4.2 万亿美元。这就像中国在说："嘿，我的体量将是你的 4.6 倍"，而印度只能难以置信地眨眼。我的意思是，真扎心啊。而且不仅是总量——人均 GDP 更是天差地别。中国的人均 GDP 约 1.3 万美元，印度则在 2900 美元左右徘徊。这差距超过四倍。想象一下两个人并肩行走，其中一个突然跳上摩托车疾驰而去——那就是中国。
Now, here’s the kicker: back in the late '80s, their GDPs were almost neck and neck. I know, right? It’s wild. In 1987, they were basically equals. But then China hit the gas with its manufacturing boom, infrastructure blitz, and export game, while India was still figuring out how to untangle its red tape and get things moving. It’s like watching one kid sprint ahead in a race while the other keeps stopping to tie their shoelaces.
And don’t get me wrong—India’s been growing fast too. It’s now the 4th largest economy in nominal terms and 3rd in PPP terms, which is impressive. But China? It’s still the big boss, sitting at #2 in nominal and #1 in PPP. So yeah, the gap hasn’t narrowed—it’s actually stretched out like a rubber band that just snapped.
现在最惊人的是：回溯到上世纪80 年代末，两国的 GDP 几乎并驾齐驱。没想到吧？简直不可思议。1987 年时它们基本持平。但随后中国踩下油门，凭借制造业繁荣、基建狂潮和出口战略一路飞驰，而印度还在纠结如何解开官僚主义的束缚让经济运转起来。这就像看着一个孩子在赛跑中全力冲刺，另一个却不停停下来系鞋带。
别误会——印度也一直在快速增长。按名义 GDP 计算，它现在是世界第四大经济体，按购买力平价计算则是第三，这确实令人印象深刻。但中国呢？它依然是老大，名义 GDP 排名第二，购买力平价排名第一。所以，是的，差距并没有缩小——实际上，它就像一根刚被拉断的橡皮筋一样被拉大了。
I kinda wish it were a closer race, you know? It’d be more exciting. But hey, India’s got youth, tech, and a booming startup scene. If it plays its cards right, maybe in the next decade we’ll see a plot twist. Fingers crossed.
Honestly, India could take a page from that playbook. Focus on core strengths, repurpose across sectors, and build community trust. Maybe then we’ll see that GDP gap start to shrink.
我有点希望这是一场更势均力敌的竞赛，你知道吗？那样会更刺激。不过，印度有年轻的人口、科技和蓬勃发展的初创企业。如果它策略得当，也许在未来十年我们会看到剧情反转。拭目以待吧。
老实说，印度可以借鉴一下这个策略。专注于核心优势，跨行业重新利用资源，并建立社区信任。也许到那时，我们会看到 GDP 差距开始缩小。
Kate Alwyn Follow
Modi has been working on making India great since he took office. We can also see that he has made adjustments to India's trade, land, population, etc., but with little success. Similarly, China has also developed rapidly in the past eight years. From many aspects, India may still have a long way to go if it wants to catch up with China.
The clearest and most persuasive measure of a country's strength is, of course, its economic situation. In terms of economic strength, the gap between India and China cannot be measured. Here are the data:
莫迪自上任以来一直在努力使印度变得强大。我们也可以看到，他对印度的贸易、土地、人口等方面都进行了调整，但收效甚微。同样，中国在过去 8 年也发展迅速。从很多方面来看，印度要想赶上中国，可能还有很长的路要走。
衡量一个国家实力最清晰、最具说服力的指标，无疑是其经济状况。就经济实力而言，印度与中国之间的差距难以估量。以下数据可见一斑：
In the past eight years, China's economy has grown steadily, but India has experienced repeated episodes. Although there was a period of high growth rate, there were also many cases of decline. For example, India’s GDP growth soared to 8.26% in 2016, when Modi took office, and dropped to 6.8% in 2017.
In the era of the COVID-19, the Modi government was obviously troubled by the COVID-19. Many epidemic policies could not alleviate the domestic epidemic very well. The seriousness of the epidemic has hit Indian society, and the following is naturally a heavy blow to economic development.
过去八年，中国经济稳步增长，而印度则经历了几番起伏。虽然有过高速增长期，但也多次出现下滑。例如，莫迪上任的 2016 年，印度 GDP 增长率飙升至 8.26%，到 2017 年则降至 6.8%。
在新冠疫情时代，莫迪政府显然被疫情所困扰。许多疫情政策并不能很好地缓解国内疫情。疫情的严重性打击了印度社会，随之而来的自然是对经济发展的沉重打击。
From 2021 to 2022, India's GDP decline by 7.25%, while China's GDP grow by 2.3%. 2023, China's GDP has been 14.72 trillion US dollars, while India's 2.66 trillion US dollars, China is 5.5 times that of India. China released economic data for 2022. The GDP increased by 8.1%, which is equivalent to an increase of 3 trillion US dollars.China's annual GDP growth is twice that of India.
It can be seen that the economies of India and China are not comparable at all. Behind the data, the gap between the Indian and Chinese economies is mainly due to two vital reasons:
2021 年到 2022 年，印度 GDP 下降 7.25%，而中国 GDP 增长 2.3%。2023年，中国 GDP 为 14.72 万亿美元，而印度为 2.66 万亿美元，中国是印度的 5.5 倍。中国公布 2022 年经济数据后显示，GDP 增长 8.1%，相当于增加了 3 万亿美元。中国一年的 GDP 增长是印度的两倍。
可见，印度和中国的经济完全不可比。数据背后，印度经济和中国经济的差距，主要在于两个重要原因：
First, the dependence on Chinese products.
Modi has always hoped to turn India's demographic dividend into an economic dividend, replacing China as a new world factory. Therefore, after Modi took office, he has always hoped to eliminate Chinese companies and products from the country and let India's local industries develop, but the problem is that many domestic industries in India are heavily dependent on China.
首先，对中国产品的依赖。
莫迪一直希望将印度的人口红利转化为经济红利，取代中国成为新的世界工厂。因此，莫迪上任后，始终希望将中国企业和产品从国内清除出去，让印度的本土产业发展起来，但问题在于，印度的许多国内产业严重依赖中国。
In these eight years, India's demand for Chinese products has shown a growing trend, and India's manufacturing industry has heavily relied on imports from China, from key components to various raw materials. According to the relevant information of the Indian House of Representatives, more than 70% of India's electronic components and APIs, and more than 50% of durable consumer goods (especially leather goods, etc.) come from China.
The dependence on Chinese products obviously puts India in a very disadvantageous position, and the huge import dependence has also caused the Indian people, especially the merchants, to suffer a lot from this boycott. China originally set up an operation model for India as the world's factory, but this model does not work in India. It can be seen that the gap between the two sides is still huge.
在过去8 年时间里，印度对中国产品的需求呈现出增长趋势，印度制造业从关键零部件到各种原材料都严重依赖从中国进口。根据印度众议院的相关资料，印度超过 70%的电子元件和原料药，超过 50%的耐用消费品(特别是皮革制品等)都来自中国。
对中国产品的依赖显然让印度处于非常不利的地位，巨大的进口依赖也让印度人民，特别是商人，在这次抵制中吃了不少苦头。中国原本为印度设定了世界工厂的运营模式，但这种模式在印度行不通。由此可见，双方的差距仍然很大。
Second, India did not take advantage of the demographic dividend.
India's population has continued to surge and to overtake China by 2023. Both China and India have the problem of uneven development overall, but China has been exploring the path of common prosperity and is actively helping some impoverished areas. Although Modi took office, he was actively calling for family planning, but the lack of reasonable planning for the social population was not implemented in the end.
其次，印度没有利用好人口红利。
印度人口持续激增，并在 2023 年超过中国。中国和印度都存在整体发展不均衡的问题，但中国一直在探索共同富裕的道路，并积极帮助一些贫困地区。尽管莫迪上台后积极呼吁计划生育，但最终因缺乏对社会人口的合理规划而未能落实。
Under the circumstance of low economic development, surplus labor has undoubtedly exacerbated the rather severe employment situation in India. A huge population, but there are not enough jobs to feed them, the direct consequence is starvation, which has a very large economic impact on India.
The importance of economic development to a country cannot be overemphasized. Whether it is military construction to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, or the implementation of a series of policies to improve people's living standards, economic development is inseparable. Since the Modi government came to power, it has continued to suppress Chinese companies and products, trying to use large populations as a strategy, but this has had little impact on economic growth.
在经济发展水平较低的情况下，剩余劳动力无疑加剧了印度本就相当严峻的就业形势。人口众多，却没有足够的就业岗位来养活他们，直接后果就是饥饿，这对印度经济产生了非常大的影响。
经济发展对一个国家的重要性再怎么强调都不为过。无论是维护国家主权和领土完整的军事建设，还是提高人民生活水平的一系列政策实施，都离不开经济发展。莫迪政府上台以来，持续打压中国企业和产品，试图以人口大国为战略，但这对于经济增长的影响微乎其微。
Although the gap between India and China has narrowed in some areas, from the perspective of the overall economic situation, China has been advancing at a high speed, the gap between India and China will not narrow in the years that Modi took office.
尽管印度和中国的差距在某些领域有所缩小，但从整体经济形势来看，中国一直在高速前进，莫迪执政的这些年，印度和中国的差距不会缩小。
Vivek Sharma Follow
I think economically India has caught up a lot. India has built a lot of infrastructure and Modi has provided basic amenities to people at a very fast pace. India’s other main problem has been a weak military considering it's very serious geopolitical needs.
我认为印度在经济上已经迎头赶上。印度建设了大量基础设施，莫迪以极快的速度为民众提供了基本生活设施。考虑到其严峻的地缘政治需求，印度的另一个主要问题是军事实力薄弱。
As far as military strength is considered, Modi has worked hard to bring India at par and to make it self reliant in technology, the latter with only limited success, but more seriously he may have failed to adopt a winning strategy vs China because of his lack of understanding of how Chinese government would play. Every day that Modi chose to wait for a better day when China would be easy to deal with and Indian military strength would be more of a threat to China, the latter encroached onto more and more territory of India and built more infrastructure on the ground including on what was Indian controlled territory when Modi came to power, and built better alliances with other important countries, and it is widely believed that now India may be overall worse off to fight a war with China.
就军事实力而言，莫迪努力使印度达到同等水平，并在技术上实现自给自足，后者仅取得有限成功，但更严重的是，他可能因未能理解中国政府的行事方式而未能采取对华制胜战略。莫迪选择等待中国更易应对、印度军力对中国更具威胁的更好时机，而中国则日复一日地CANSI印度越来越多的领土，并在实地建设更多基础设施，包括莫迪上台时印度控制的领土上，同时与其他重要国家建立更牢固的联盟。人们普遍认为，如今印度与中国开战的整体处境可能更糟。
Some people and actually a lot of Indian optimists have regarded Modi as a god and by the way I was personally an optimist, and rightly so because of how treacherous the previous governments had been, but when you add up the losses and gains, it is at best hard to tell if Modi is in an overall better military strength position now.
Don't get me wrong. Modi is a smart man who Indians still trust for good reason. The mistakes Modi made and his losses of key people are:
一些人，实际上许多印度乐观主义者将莫迪奉若神明，顺便说一句，我个人也曾是乐观主义者，这理所当然，因为之前的政府有多么奸诈。但当你权衡得失时，充其量很难判断莫迪现在的整体军事实力是否处于更有利的地位。
别误会。莫迪是个聪明人，印度人至今仍信任他是有充分理由的。莫迪犯下的错误以及他失去的关键人物包括：
Modi lost a key thinker in Arun Jaitley, who died of cancer. Mr Jaitley was a very clear headed man and was also instrumental in getting Modi chosen the party leader. Modi also lost Gen Bipin Rawat, a genius commander to freak accident whether or not a conspiracy being a different matter. These were big losses for Modi, and even Modi does not fully appreciate the significance of the loss of Jaitley.
Modi displayed a strange attraction to the theory that the professionals in any field should be trusted. He empowered the experienced bureaucracy more though after an attempt to cleanse it of corruption. But corruption was not the only problem with the senior Indian bureaucrats. They were actually not thorough experts to the level that Modi thought. This is why Modi seemed to do and redo things.
莫迪因癌症失去了关键智囊阿伦·贾特里。贾特里先生思路极为清晰，且在推选莫迪担任党魁过程中发挥了重要作用。莫迪还因离奇事故失去了天才指挥官比平·拉瓦特将军，是否存在阴谋则另当别论。这些对莫迪而言是重大损失，甚至连莫迪本人也未能完全认识到失去贾特里的重要性。
莫迪对"应信任各领域专业人士"的理论展现出异乎寻常的执着。在尝试肃清腐败后，他反而赋予经验丰富的官僚体系更大权力。但腐败并非印度高级官僚的唯一问题——他们实际的专业水平远未达到莫迪设想的高度。这正是莫迪政策反复推倒重来的根源所在。
Modi seemed to gather sufficient points to qualify for a good strategist and a calm politician. But the strong point of Modi was the hope that he would have an accurate understanding of issues and their solution. While he is good through taking his time to wait for problems to take recognizable shape before action, that is not what a top class leader would do. His taking time points to a lack of the ability to predict. This is serious for someone in the position of India's prime minister in the current times, though with these attributes he would have been excellent prime minister of any other country.
莫迪似乎积累了足够的资本，足以称得上是一位优秀的战略家和冷静的政治家。但莫迪的强项在于人们期望他能准确理解问题并提出解决方案。虽然他善于花时间等待问题显形后再采取行动，但这并非顶级领导人的行事风格。他的这种行事方式暴露出缺乏预见能力。对于当今身处印度总理之位的人来说，这是个严重问题——尽管具备这些特质的他若在其他任何国家都会是杰出的总理。
Modi has a problem that he looks for international applaud. Modi also has a problem that he hates erstwhile “bad" people like Indira Gandhi. But you need to appreciate even your adversary and learn from them. Modi is not ready to learn things that would shake up his previous beliefs.
On the other hand, China has been able to pull strings internationally both in US and Russia. Modi when he exhibited friendship towards all, he came across as a softy, and the international community thinks of the soft as weak and thus not trustworthy.
莫迪存在一个问题：他过于追求国际赞誉。莫迪还存在另一个问题：他憎恶英迪拉·甘地等昔日的"负面"人物。但即使是对手也值得欣赏并学习其长处。莫迪不愿接受那些可能动摇其固有认知的新事物。
反观中国，无论在美国还是俄罗斯都能游刃有余地施展国际影响力。当莫迪展现对各国友好的姿态时，却给人以软弱之感，而国际社会常将软弱等同于不可靠。
Gross Domestic Product is just a term for public consumption and newspaper headlines
Economists call it ‘Resource Output', the cumulative value of goods and services created in an economy within its periphery, by all the participants standardized to the US Dollar
Participants only include the workforce - the present workers, the potential workers in training or ready to seek employment and excludes the older persons, younger kids who are not part of the workforce yet
国内生产总值不过是面向公众消费和新闻头条的一个术语。
经济学家称之为"资源产出"，即在一个经济体边界内，所有参与者创造的货物与服务累计价值，并以美元为标准进行换算。
参与者仅包括劳动力——即现有工作者、正在接受培训或准备求职的潜在工作者，而不包括尚未成为劳动力组成部分的老年人和年幼儿童。
The assumption is the resource output is completely disbursed into the economy, consumed and ultimately is distrubuted across the entire population, which is what 'Per Capita GDP' denotes
The assumption is Resource output = Gross Domestic Product
In 2015, China had a Resource output of around 11 Trillion Dollars and roughly 940 Million participants
The average participant generated approximately 11,700 Dollars of value to the Chinese economy
其假设是资源产出完全流入经济体系，被消费并最终分配至全体人口，这正是"人均国内生产总值"所代表的含义。
假设资源产出等于国内生产总值：
2015 年，中国的资源产出约为 11 万亿美元，参与者约 9.4 亿人。
平均每位参与者为中国经济创造了约 11700 美元的价值。
In 2015, a High Value economy with population the size of China, required a minimum of 20,400 Dollars of value per participant and a Medium Value economy with the same population required a minimum of 9,100 Dollars of value per participant
So China firmly came in as a Medium Value Economy
Mathematically it was 55 per cent of a High Value Economy
2015 年，一个与中国人口规模相当的高价值经济体，要求每位参与者至少创造 20400 美元的价值；而同等人口规模的中等价值经济体，则要求每位参与者至少创造 9100 美元的价值
因此，中国坚定地迈入了中等价值经济体的行列。
从数学角度看，其价值相当于高等价值经济体的 55%。
In 2015, India had a resource output of 2.38 Trillion Dollars and roughly around 700 million participants
The average participant generated approximately 3,400 Dollars of value to the Indian economy
In 2015, a High Value economy with population the size of India, required a minimum of 20,400 Dollars of value per participant and a Medium Value economy with the same population required a minimum of 9,100 Dollars of value per participant
2015 年，印度的资源产出为 2.38 万亿美元，参与者数量约为 7 亿。
平均每位参与者为印度经济创造了约 3400 美元的价值。
2015 年，一个人口规模与印度相当的高价值经济体，要求每位参与者至少创造 20400 美元的价值；而同等人口规模的中等价值经济体，则要求每位参与者至少创造 9100 美元的价值。
So India firmly came in as a Low Value Economy
Mathematically it was 16 per cent of a High Value Economy and 36 per cent of a Medium Value Economy
If you see the latest numbers
China has a resource output of around 20 Trillion Dollars and 1 Billion participants
因此，印度被明确归为低价值经济体。
从数学上看，其价值仅相当于高价值经济体的 16%，中等价值经济体的 36%。
若查看最新数据
中国的资源产出约为 20 万亿美元，参与者达 10 亿人。
With 20,000 Dollars of resource generation per participant
Today a High Value economy with Chinas population requires 27,000 Dollars of resource creation and a Medium value economy around 12,000 Dollars
So China is transitioning to a High Value Economy and can be classified as a Medium - High Economy
Mathematically it is 74 per cent of a High Value economy
人均资源创造量为 2 万美元。
如今，一个拥有中国人口规模的高价值经济体需要人均创造 2.7 万美元资源，中等价值经济体则需要约 1.2 万美元。
因此中国正在向高价值经济体转型，可归类为中高收入经济体。
从数学角度看，这相当于一个高价值经济体的 74%。
So the Chinese economy has risen 34 per cent in value over the past 10 years (55 per cent to 74 per cent of a High Value economy)
With 60 million new participants, the economy has seen a 71 Per cent increase in the average resource output per participant (11,700 Dollars to 20,000 Dollars)
By the latest numbers
India has a 4 Trillion Dollar resource output today
因此，中国经济在过去十年中价值增长了 34%（从一个高价值经济体的 55%增长到 74%）
随着 6000 万新参与者的加入，经济中每位参与者的平均资源产出增长了 71%（从 11700 美元增加到 20000 美元）。
根据最新数据。
印度目前的资源产出为 4 万亿美元。
India has 800 Million participants
With 5,000 Dollars of resource generation per participant
Today a High Value economy with Chinas population requires 27,000 Dollars of resource creation and a Medium value economy around 12,000 Dollars
So India still remains firmly as a Low Value Economy
印度拥有 8 亿参与者。
每位参与者的资源创造额为 5000 美元。
如今，一个拥有中国人口规模的高价值经济体需要人均创造 2.7 万美元资源，中等价值经济体则需要约 1.2 万美元。
因此，印度依然稳固地保持着低价值经济体的地位。
Mathematically it is 42 per cent of a Medium Value economy
So the Indian economy has risen only 17 per cent in value over the past 10 years (36 per cent to 42 per cent of a Medium Value Economy)
With 100 million new participants, the economy has seen a 51.5 Per cent increase in the average resource output per participant (3,400 Dollars to 5,000 Dollars)
So if you look strictly like a true economist, the gap between the Chinese and Indian economies have been widening
从数学角度看，其价值仅相当于中等价值经济体的 42%。
这意味着过去十年间，印度经济的价值仅提升了 17%（从相当于中等价值经济体的 36%增至 42%）。
尽管新增了一亿参与者，但每位参与者的平均资源产出仅增长了 51.5%（从 3400 美元增至 5000 美元）。
因此，若严格以经济学家的视角审视，中国经济与印度经济之间的差距正在持续扩大。
China despite having 60 per cent of the new participants in its economy compared to India, has generated twice the value to it's economy that India has managed (34 per cent versus 17 per cent)
India, despite having 40 million additional participants to its economy , has managed only 72 per cent of the average resource output per participant when compared to China (51.5 per cent versus 71 per cent)
This is clearly depicted by the fact that the Chinese make many more high value products now with their own blueprint processes , supply chain control and their own proprietary control
India in the last 10 years, has remained low value, with marginal improvement (36 per cent to 42 per cent) with reliance on external blueprint processes, supply chains and proprietary control in most areas of manufacturing and engagement in low to middle value services
尽管中国新增经济参与者数量仅为印度的 60%，但其为经济创造的价值却是印度的两倍（34%对比 17%）。
尽管印度新增了 4000 万经济参与者，但每位参与者的平均资源产出仅为中国的 72%（51.5%对比 71%）。
这一差距的直观体现是：中国当前已能自主掌控技术方案、供应链及专有体系，生产出数量远超印度的高附加值产品。
过去十年，印度经济始终处于低附加值状态，仅实现边际改善（从 36%提升至 42%），其制造业多数领域依赖外部技术方案、供应链及专有控制体系，主要从事中低端服务业。
Optimists could say the Indian Government has spent this time investing heavily into the Indian economy and the returns would be reflected in the next ten or twenty years.
Pessimists would say this was the ‘Lost Decade' for India, where India had a series of directionless haphazard economic policies such as demonetization, Make in India, PLI and a bunch of other schemes, coupled with the pandemic & geopolitical military conflicts (The Ukraine war, The middle eastern conflict, The Indo Pak conflict)
乐观者可能会说，印度政府在此期间大力投资印度经济，回报将在未来十年或二十年内显现。
悲观者可能会说，这是印度的"失落的十年"，印度实施了一系列无方向、杂乱的经济政策，如废钞令、"印度制造"、生产挂钩激励计划以及一系列其他计划，再加上疫情和地缘政治军事冲突（俄乌战争、中东冲突、印巴冲突）。
It is therefore key to look more deeply into economic numbers
Merely looking at resource output and Gross Domestic Product might lead one to claim that China was 5.2 times the size of India in 2015 and is around 4.8 times the size of India in 2025 - so the gap has narrowed
However this is erroneous
Reality shows China has rapidly been rising it's value and heading fast towards becoming a high value economy while India is moving far more slowly (Half the speed) to becoming a Medium value economy
因此，更深入地审视经济数据至关重要。
仅看资源产出和国内生产总值，可能会让人声称中国在 2015 年是印度的 5.2 倍，到 2025 年大约是印度的 4.8 倍——因此差距已经缩小。
然而，这种看法是错误的。
现实表明，中国正迅速提升其价值，并快速迈向高价值经济体，而印度向中等价值经济体转型的速度则慢得多（仅为中国速度的一半）。
Even if these numbers are a bit here and there depending on source and accuracy , the general trends are undeniable
India despite 40 million more participants has generated 30 per cent lesser value to their economy than China. This bodes badly for a rising youth population.
Indias resource creation is racing against a rising population which adds more participants every day to the Indian economy. China is also adding participants but in lesser numbers due to their demographic trends.
即使这些数字因来源和准确性而略有出入，但总体趋势是不可否认的。
尽管参与者多出 4000 万，印度为其经济创造的价值却比中国少了 30%。这对日益增长的青年人口来说是个不祥之兆。
印度的资源创造正与不断增长的人口赛跑，每天都有更多参与者加入印度经济。中国也在增加参与者，但由于人口趋势，数量较少。
The next ten years (2025–2035) would be crucial
All the investments by the Indian Government presently being included as Government spending in the Gross Domestic Product, should start to show dividends
New Freeways should start generating intangible benefits
New Airports should start creating new opportunities
未来十年（2025 年至 2035 年）将至关重要。
目前印度政府所有投资均被计入国内生产总值中的政府支出，这些投资应开始产生回报。
新高速公路应开始产生无形效益。
新机场应开始创造新机遇。
New Ports should start raising trade potential
New Schools should start raising the average skills of the participants and the work force (Universities I mean)
This should be able to meet the value enhancement requirements of the Indian economy on its quest to upward mobility , inspite of 130–140 million participants expected to be added to the Indian economy in the next ten years cumulatively
新港口应开始提升贸易潜力。
新设立的院校（我指的是大学）应开始提升参与者和劳动力的平均技能水平。
这应能满足印度经济在追求向上流动过程中的价值提升需求，尽管未来十年印度经济预计将累计新增 1.3 亿至 1.4 亿参与者。
It is safe to say India has significantly more challenges than China does for the next 20–25 years.
Chinas problems will begin only after that.
Please feel free to engage with me on the economics
However please avoid the “Always speaking against India” diatribe.
可以稳妥地说，未来 20-25 年，印度面临的挑战将远大于中国。
中国的问题将在此之后才开始显现。
欢迎随时与我探讨经济学问题。
但请避免那种“总是贬低印度”的论调。
Deepak· Nov 18
Without Structural reforms, India is not going anywhere
we need …
-Police and Judicial reforms -Land reforms -labour reforms -Educational reforms
All the reforms are impossible in the current environment.
Till now, India has only grabbed the low-hanging fruit of global trade
没有结构性改革，印度将停滞不前。
我们需要…警务与司法改革、土地改革、劳动改革、教育改革。
在当前环境下，所有改革都是不可能实现的。
迄今为止，印度在全球贸易中只摘取了那些唾手可得的果实。
Aoi Yamamoto· Nov 18
You don’t need any of those. You just need democracy.
你们不需要任何那些东西。你们只需要民主。
凛冬将至 · Nov 22
The question is, who would believe that India's GDP reaches 4 trillion US dollars?
问题是，谁会相信印度的 GDP 能达到 4 万亿美元？
Zheng Duoduo· Nov 24
The cheapest things in India are religion and democracy, which hinder India's development from a human society to a modern society.
印度最廉价的东西是宗教和民主，它们阻碍了印度从人类社会向现代社会的发展。
Veena Sehgal· Nov 18
Suggest how we can catch up.
请建议我们如何追赶。
凛冬将至· Nov 22
Keep bragging! Or revise the GDP calculation method! Both approaches can instantly boost India's GDP—they can get as much GDP as they want!
继续吹嘘吧！或者修改 GDP 的计算方法！这两种方式都能瞬间提升印度的 GDP——他们想要多少 GDP 就能得到多少！
Thomas Jose Joseph Follow
Present government effort may not bear fruit. Self sufficientcy is a good idea. Many technologies reached this point taking centuries. Self sufficientcy may take that long. Allow FDIs without any restrictions is only way to catch up. Oligargs im India may not allow competition. Only China can challenge them. Unequal treatment may be challenged in our borders by their government. Like in China local brands may challenge foreign brands led by new entrepanuer class not the traditional indians trader turned industrialists families.
现任政府的努力可能无法立即见效。自给自足是个好理念，但许多技术历经数百年才发展到今天的地步，实现自给自足或许也需要同样漫长的时间。唯有放开对外资的限制，才可能迎头赶上。印度的寡头们未必会容许竞争，而真正能挑战他们的只有中国。若遭遇不公待遇，外国政府也可能在我国境内提出异议。就像在中国那样，挑战国际品牌的或许并非传统商贾出身的工业世家，而是新兴创业者群体主导的本土品牌。
Yousuf Khan Follow
The GDP per capita is known as the GDP-PPP (purchasing power parity). In terms of GDP-PPP, the highest country is China, followed by the US, followed by India. India is growing a bit faster, while China is growing a little slower (after decades of fast growth), and the USA is almost flat-lined. The top-3 are miles above everyone below it, including Russia, Japan, and Germany. And within the top-3, number 2 is miles above number 3, and number 1 is miles above number 2.
人均国内生产总值被称为 GDP-PPP（购买力平价）。就 GDP-PPP 而言，最高的国家是中国，其次是美国，然后是印度。印度的增长速度稍快一些，而中国的增长速度稍慢一些（经过几十年的快速增长后），美国则几乎停滞不前。前三名遥遥领先于包括俄罗斯、日本和德国在内的其他国家。而在前三名中，第二名遥遥领先于第三名，第一名又遥遥领先于第二名。
So India is growing faster than China, so the gap is narrowing, but it’s a huge gap to fill. India won’t catch upto China (#1) any time this century. But it’s still close enough to overtake the US within the century.
List of countries by GDP (PPP) - Wikipedia
因此，印度的增长速度超过中国，差距正在缩小，但仍有巨大的差距需要填补。印度在本世纪内不太可能赶上中国（排名第一）。但它仍然足够接近，有望在本世纪内超越美国。
各国国内生产总值（购买力平价）列表 - 维基百科（链接）
On Demand Reporter Follow
Over the past 10 years, the GDP gap between India and China has actually widened—both in total GDP and per capita GDP. Yep, not what you'd hope for if you're rooting for India to catch up fast.
Okay, so brace yourself. China's total GDP in 2025 is around $19.2 trillion, while India’s is about $4.2 trillion. That’s like China saying, “Hey, I’m gonna be 4.6 times bigger than you,” and India just blxing in disbelief. I mean, ouch. And it’s not just the total—per capita GDP is also a whole other story. China’s per capita GDP is roughly $13,000, while India’s is hovering around $2,900. That’s more than four times the difference. Like, imagine two people walking side by side, and one suddenly hops on a motorbike and zooms ahead. That’s China.
过去十年间，印度与中国之间的 GDP 差距实际上在扩大——无论是总量还是人均 GDP。是的，如果你期待印度快速追赶，这恐怕不是你想看到的结果。
好吧，准备好接受现实吧。2025 年中国的 GDP 总量约为 19.2 万亿美元，而印度大约是 4.2 万亿美元。这就像中国在说："嘿，我的体量将是你的 4.6 倍"，而印度只能难以置信地眨眼。我的意思是，真扎心啊。而且不仅是总量——人均 GDP 更是天差地别。中国的人均 GDP 约 1.3 万美元，印度则在 2900 美元左右徘徊。这差距超过四倍。想象一下两个人并肩行走，其中一个突然跳上摩托车疾驰而去——那就是中国。
Now, here’s the kicker: back in the late '80s, their GDPs were almost neck and neck. I know, right? It’s wild. In 1987, they were basically equals. But then China hit the gas with its manufacturing boom, infrastructure blitz, and export game, while India was still figuring out how to untangle its red tape and get things moving. It’s like watching one kid sprint ahead in a race while the other keeps stopping to tie their shoelaces.
And don’t get me wrong—India’s been growing fast too. It’s now the 4th largest economy in nominal terms and 3rd in PPP terms, which is impressive. But China? It’s still the big boss, sitting at #2 in nominal and #1 in PPP. So yeah, the gap hasn’t narrowed—it’s actually stretched out like a rubber band that just snapped.
现在最惊人的是：回溯到上世纪80 年代末，两国的 GDP 几乎并驾齐驱。没想到吧？简直不可思议。1987 年时它们基本持平。但随后中国踩下油门，凭借制造业繁荣、基建狂潮和出口战略一路飞驰，而印度还在纠结如何解开官僚主义的束缚让经济运转起来。这就像看着一个孩子在赛跑中全力冲刺，另一个却不停停下来系鞋带。
别误会——印度也一直在快速增长。按名义 GDP 计算，它现在是世界第四大经济体，按购买力平价计算则是第三，这确实令人印象深刻。但中国呢？它依然是老大，名义 GDP 排名第二，购买力平价排名第一。所以，是的，差距并没有缩小——实际上，它就像一根刚被拉断的橡皮筋一样被拉大了。
I kinda wish it were a closer race, you know? It’d be more exciting. But hey, India’s got youth, tech, and a booming startup scene. If it plays its cards right, maybe in the next decade we’ll see a plot twist. Fingers crossed.
Honestly, India could take a page from that playbook. Focus on core strengths, repurpose across sectors, and build community trust. Maybe then we’ll see that GDP gap start to shrink.
我有点希望这是一场更势均力敌的竞赛，你知道吗？那样会更刺激。不过，印度有年轻的人口、科技和蓬勃发展的初创企业。如果它策略得当，也许在未来十年我们会看到剧情反转。拭目以待吧。
老实说，印度可以借鉴一下这个策略。专注于核心优势，跨行业重新利用资源，并建立社区信任。也许到那时，我们会看到 GDP 差距开始缩小。
Kate Alwyn Follow
Modi has been working on making India great since he took office. We can also see that he has made adjustments to India's trade, land, population, etc., but with little success. Similarly, China has also developed rapidly in the past eight years. From many aspects, India may still have a long way to go if it wants to catch up with China.
The clearest and most persuasive measure of a country's strength is, of course, its economic situation. In terms of economic strength, the gap between India and China cannot be measured. Here are the data:
莫迪自上任以来一直在努力使印度变得强大。我们也可以看到，他对印度的贸易、土地、人口等方面都进行了调整，但收效甚微。同样，中国在过去 8 年也发展迅速。从很多方面来看，印度要想赶上中国，可能还有很长的路要走。
衡量一个国家实力最清晰、最具说服力的指标，无疑是其经济状况。就经济实力而言，印度与中国之间的差距难以估量。以下数据可见一斑：
In the past eight years, China's economy has grown steadily, but India has experienced repeated episodes. Although there was a period of high growth rate, there were also many cases of decline. For example, India’s GDP growth soared to 8.26% in 2016, when Modi took office, and dropped to 6.8% in 2017.
In the era of the COVID-19, the Modi government was obviously troubled by the COVID-19. Many epidemic policies could not alleviate the domestic epidemic very well. The seriousness of the epidemic has hit Indian society, and the following is naturally a heavy blow to economic development.
过去八年，中国经济稳步增长，而印度则经历了几番起伏。虽然有过高速增长期，但也多次出现下滑。例如，莫迪上任的 2016 年，印度 GDP 增长率飙升至 8.26%，到 2017 年则降至 6.8%。
在新冠疫情时代，莫迪政府显然被疫情所困扰。许多疫情政策并不能很好地缓解国内疫情。疫情的严重性打击了印度社会，随之而来的自然是对经济发展的沉重打击。
From 2021 to 2022, India's GDP decline by 7.25%, while China's GDP grow by 2.3%. 2023, China's GDP has been 14.72 trillion US dollars, while India's 2.66 trillion US dollars, China is 5.5 times that of India. China released economic data for 2022. The GDP increased by 8.1%, which is equivalent to an increase of 3 trillion US dollars.China's annual GDP growth is twice that of India.
It can be seen that the economies of India and China are not comparable at all. Behind the data, the gap between the Indian and Chinese economies is mainly due to two vital reasons:
2021 年到 2022 年，印度 GDP 下降 7.25%，而中国 GDP 增长 2.3%。2023年，中国 GDP 为 14.72 万亿美元，而印度为 2.66 万亿美元，中国是印度的 5.5 倍。中国公布 2022 年经济数据后显示，GDP 增长 8.1%，相当于增加了 3 万亿美元。中国一年的 GDP 增长是印度的两倍。
可见，印度和中国的经济完全不可比。数据背后，印度经济和中国经济的差距，主要在于两个重要原因：
First, the dependence on Chinese products.
Modi has always hoped to turn India's demographic dividend into an economic dividend, replacing China as a new world factory. Therefore, after Modi took office, he has always hoped to eliminate Chinese companies and products from the country and let India's local industries develop, but the problem is that many domestic industries in India are heavily dependent on China.
首先，对中国产品的依赖。
莫迪一直希望将印度的人口红利转化为经济红利，取代中国成为新的世界工厂。因此，莫迪上任后，始终希望将中国企业和产品从国内清除出去，让印度的本土产业发展起来，但问题在于，印度的许多国内产业严重依赖中国。
In these eight years, India's demand for Chinese products has shown a growing trend, and India's manufacturing industry has heavily relied on imports from China, from key components to various raw materials. According to the relevant information of the Indian House of Representatives, more than 70% of India's electronic components and APIs, and more than 50% of durable consumer goods (especially leather goods, etc.) come from China.
The dependence on Chinese products obviously puts India in a very disadvantageous position, and the huge import dependence has also caused the Indian people, especially the merchants, to suffer a lot from this boycott. China originally set up an operation model for India as the world's factory, but this model does not work in India. It can be seen that the gap between the two sides is still huge.
在过去8 年时间里，印度对中国产品的需求呈现出增长趋势，印度制造业从关键零部件到各种原材料都严重依赖从中国进口。根据印度众议院的相关资料，印度超过 70%的电子元件和原料药，超过 50%的耐用消费品(特别是皮革制品等)都来自中国。
对中国产品的依赖显然让印度处于非常不利的地位，巨大的进口依赖也让印度人民，特别是商人，在这次抵制中吃了不少苦头。中国原本为印度设定了世界工厂的运营模式，但这种模式在印度行不通。由此可见，双方的差距仍然很大。
Second, India did not take advantage of the demographic dividend.
India's population has continued to surge and to overtake China by 2023. Both China and India have the problem of uneven development overall, but China has been exploring the path of common prosperity and is actively helping some impoverished areas. Although Modi took office, he was actively calling for family planning, but the lack of reasonable planning for the social population was not implemented in the end.
其次，印度没有利用好人口红利。
印度人口持续激增，并在 2023 年超过中国。中国和印度都存在整体发展不均衡的问题，但中国一直在探索共同富裕的道路，并积极帮助一些贫困地区。尽管莫迪上台后积极呼吁计划生育，但最终因缺乏对社会人口的合理规划而未能落实。
Under the circumstance of low economic development, surplus labor has undoubtedly exacerbated the rather severe employment situation in India. A huge population, but there are not enough jobs to feed them, the direct consequence is starvation, which has a very large economic impact on India.
The importance of economic development to a country cannot be overemphasized. Whether it is military construction to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, or the implementation of a series of policies to improve people's living standards, economic development is inseparable. Since the Modi government came to power, it has continued to suppress Chinese companies and products, trying to use large populations as a strategy, but this has had little impact on economic growth.
在经济发展水平较低的情况下，剩余劳动力无疑加剧了印度本就相当严峻的就业形势。人口众多，却没有足够的就业岗位来养活他们，直接后果就是饥饿，这对印度经济产生了非常大的影响。
经济发展对一个国家的重要性再怎么强调都不为过。无论是维护国家主权和领土完整的军事建设，还是提高人民生活水平的一系列政策实施，都离不开经济发展。莫迪政府上台以来，持续打压中国企业和产品，试图以人口大国为战略，但这对于经济增长的影响微乎其微。
Although the gap between India and China has narrowed in some areas, from the perspective of the overall economic situation, China has been advancing at a high speed, the gap between India and China will not narrow in the years that Modi took office.
尽管印度和中国的差距在某些领域有所缩小，但从整体经济形势来看，中国一直在高速前进，莫迪执政的这些年，印度和中国的差距不会缩小。
Vivek Sharma Follow
I think economically India has caught up a lot. India has built a lot of infrastructure and Modi has provided basic amenities to people at a very fast pace. India’s other main problem has been a weak military considering it's very serious geopolitical needs.
我认为印度在经济上已经迎头赶上。印度建设了大量基础设施，莫迪以极快的速度为民众提供了基本生活设施。考虑到其严峻的地缘政治需求，印度的另一个主要问题是军事实力薄弱。
As far as military strength is considered, Modi has worked hard to bring India at par and to make it self reliant in technology, the latter with only limited success, but more seriously he may have failed to adopt a winning strategy vs China because of his lack of understanding of how Chinese government would play. Every day that Modi chose to wait for a better day when China would be easy to deal with and Indian military strength would be more of a threat to China, the latter encroached onto more and more territory of India and built more infrastructure on the ground including on what was Indian controlled territory when Modi came to power, and built better alliances with other important countries, and it is widely believed that now India may be overall worse off to fight a war with China.
就军事实力而言，莫迪努力使印度达到同等水平，并在技术上实现自给自足，后者仅取得有限成功，但更严重的是，他可能因未能理解中国政府的行事方式而未能采取对华制胜战略。莫迪选择等待中国更易应对、印度军力对中国更具威胁的更好时机，而中国则日复一日地CANSI印度越来越多的领土，并在实地建设更多基础设施，包括莫迪上台时印度控制的领土上，同时与其他重要国家建立更牢固的联盟。人们普遍认为，如今印度与中国开战的整体处境可能更糟。
Some people and actually a lot of Indian optimists have regarded Modi as a god and by the way I was personally an optimist, and rightly so because of how treacherous the previous governments had been, but when you add up the losses and gains, it is at best hard to tell if Modi is in an overall better military strength position now.
Don't get me wrong. Modi is a smart man who Indians still trust for good reason. The mistakes Modi made and his losses of key people are:
一些人，实际上许多印度乐观主义者将莫迪奉若神明，顺便说一句，我个人也曾是乐观主义者，这理所当然，因为之前的政府有多么奸诈。但当你权衡得失时，充其量很难判断莫迪现在的整体军事实力是否处于更有利的地位。
别误会。莫迪是个聪明人，印度人至今仍信任他是有充分理由的。莫迪犯下的错误以及他失去的关键人物包括：
Modi lost a key thinker in Arun Jaitley, who died of cancer. Mr Jaitley was a very clear headed man and was also instrumental in getting Modi chosen the party leader. Modi also lost Gen Bipin Rawat, a genius commander to freak accident whether or not a conspiracy being a different matter. These were big losses for Modi, and even Modi does not fully appreciate the significance of the loss of Jaitley.
Modi displayed a strange attraction to the theory that the professionals in any field should be trusted. He empowered the experienced bureaucracy more though after an attempt to cleanse it of corruption. But corruption was not the only problem with the senior Indian bureaucrats. They were actually not thorough experts to the level that Modi thought. This is why Modi seemed to do and redo things.
莫迪因癌症失去了关键智囊阿伦·贾特里。贾特里先生思路极为清晰，且在推选莫迪担任党魁过程中发挥了重要作用。莫迪还因离奇事故失去了天才指挥官比平·拉瓦特将军，是否存在阴谋则另当别论。这些对莫迪而言是重大损失，甚至连莫迪本人也未能完全认识到失去贾特里的重要性。
莫迪对"应信任各领域专业人士"的理论展现出异乎寻常的执着。在尝试肃清腐败后，他反而赋予经验丰富的官僚体系更大权力。但腐败并非印度高级官僚的唯一问题——他们实际的专业水平远未达到莫迪设想的高度。这正是莫迪政策反复推倒重来的根源所在。
Modi seemed to gather sufficient points to qualify for a good strategist and a calm politician. But the strong point of Modi was the hope that he would have an accurate understanding of issues and their solution. While he is good through taking his time to wait for problems to take recognizable shape before action, that is not what a top class leader would do. His taking time points to a lack of the ability to predict. This is serious for someone in the position of India's prime minister in the current times, though with these attributes he would have been excellent prime minister of any other country.
莫迪似乎积累了足够的资本，足以称得上是一位优秀的战略家和冷静的政治家。但莫迪的强项在于人们期望他能准确理解问题并提出解决方案。虽然他善于花时间等待问题显形后再采取行动，但这并非顶级领导人的行事风格。他的这种行事方式暴露出缺乏预见能力。对于当今身处印度总理之位的人来说，这是个严重问题——尽管具备这些特质的他若在其他任何国家都会是杰出的总理。
Modi has a problem that he looks for international applaud. Modi also has a problem that he hates erstwhile “bad" people like Indira Gandhi. But you need to appreciate even your adversary and learn from them. Modi is not ready to learn things that would shake up his previous beliefs.
On the other hand, China has been able to pull strings internationally both in US and Russia. Modi when he exhibited friendship towards all, he came across as a softy, and the international community thinks of the soft as weak and thus not trustworthy.
莫迪存在一个问题：他过于追求国际赞誉。莫迪还存在另一个问题：他憎恶英迪拉·甘地等昔日的"负面"人物。但即使是对手也值得欣赏并学习其长处。莫迪不愿接受那些可能动摇其固有认知的新事物。
反观中国，无论在美国还是俄罗斯都能游刃有余地施展国际影响力。当莫迪展现对各国友好的姿态时，却给人以软弱之感，而国际社会常将软弱等同于不可靠。
