当“贸易战”结束时，美国经济会变弱还是变强？

Archie Martin
It’s already becoming a huge disaster. Foreign countries despise Trump and Musk so much that they don’t even need to impose tariffs on our goods — stores are quickly removing American products from their shelves, and consumers are boycotting American brands. It started with Canada and is now spreading to Mexico, Europe, and China.

这已经演变成一场巨大的灾难。外国极其鄙视特朗普和马斯克，以至于他们甚至无需对我们的商品加征关税——商店正迅速将美国产品下架，消费者也在抵制美国品牌。这事始于加拿大，如今正蔓延至墨西哥、欧洲和中国。

Other countries are also imposing retaliatory tariffs on American bourbon, corn, wheat, soybeans, motorcycles, orange juice, and Teslas. Even after the tariff war ends, the rest of the world will continue avoiding these products from the US. These goods come from red states, and those states will face severe consequences from this trade war for years to come. Thousands of farmers will go bankrupt.

其他国家也在对美国的波旁威士忌、玉米、小麦、大豆、摩托车、橙汁和特斯拉汽车征收报复性关税。即使关税战结束后，世界其他国家仍会继续避开从美国进口这些产品。这些商品产自共和党控制的州，未来数年，这些州将因这场贸易战面临严重后果。成千上万的农民将会破产。

The US will recover, blue states will thrive, and red states will grow poorer. Once again, Republicans have voted against their own interests and are now getting exactly what they voted for.

美国会复苏，蓝色州（民主党占主导的州）会繁荣发展，而红色州（共和党占主导的州）会变得更穷。共和党人又一次投票反对自身利益，现在他们正收获自己投票所带来的后果。

Al Klein
A lot of countries are boycotting American cars, including Teslas regardless of where they’re made.

很多国家都在抵制美国汽车，包括特斯拉，无论其产地在哪里。

We’re already weaker. And getting still weaker. This won’t end well for the US. (Neither will Trump’s failure to back Ukraine. Neither will his backing Netanyahu.)

我们已经变得更弱了，而且还在变得更弱。这对美国来说不会有好结果。（特朗普不支持乌克兰不会有好结果，他支持内塔尼亚胡也不会有好结果。）

The world has moved on from the US. We’re no longer considered a leader of the free world. (‘A’ leader - it’s been a while since we were considered the leader of the free world.) And it’s going to take a long time after Trump dies before we’re accepted as part of the free world - most of Europe doesn’t consider us very ‘free’ right now. [Probably because we’re already living in a dictatorship.])

世界已经将美国抛在身后。我们不再被视为自由世界的领导者了。（只是‘一个’领导者——我们被视为自由世界领导者已经是很久以前的事了。）在特朗普去世后，我们要过很长时间才会被接纳为自由世界的一部分——目前大多数欧洲国家并不认为我们有多‘自由’。[可能是因为我们已经生活在独裁统治之下。]

Steph Angel Angelinas, Ph.D
As Napoleon Bonaparte once said…

正如拿破仑·波拿巴曾经说过……

"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake"

当你的敌人犯错时，千万别去打断他。

This is the wake-up call many nations needed, including Europe, Canada and the UK

这是包括欧洲、加拿大和英国在内的许多国家所需要的警钟。

It's not now, but in the future the chickens will come home to roost.

不是现在，而是将来会自食恶果。

The trust has gone, new trading partners are being sought, tastes will change and more home grown products will prevail.

信任已经不复存在，新的贸易伙伴正在被寻找，人们的口味会发生变化，更多本土产品将占据主导地位。

In four years, will Canada, Mexico, Europe, China and the UK etc. actually need America? Probably not!

四年后，加拿大、墨西哥、欧洲、中国和英国等国家和地区真的还需要美国吗？很可能不需要！

Once countries know they don't need America or, especially, they can't trust them, this will become a self fulfilling prophesy. If not very careful, the only loser here will be the USA.

一旦各国意识到它们不需要美国，尤其是不能信任美国，这将成为一个自我实现的预言。如果不小心，这里唯一的输家将是美国。

I know patriotism is very high in the States, but a deep breath and some clear thinking may be the way forward here. Still, it's their choice and I'm sure America will do okay on its own inward looking path (hopefully… Just look at Russia!).

我知道在美国爱国主义情绪高涨，但在这件事上，冷静下来、理智思考或许才是前进的方向。不过，这是他们的选择，我相信美国即便走只顾自身的道路也会安然无恙（希望如此……看看俄罗斯就知道了！）。

“Oh what tangled webs we weave when first we practice to decieve” (Walter Scott).

“最初蓄意欺骗时，我们织出的是多么错综复杂的网啊”（沃尔特·司各特）。

This trade war/these US tariffs is/are important as it will impact on everyone, rich or poor, old or young, big or small. Read your history for 1929 to 1939… sometimes known as the Great Depression!

这场贸易战/美国的这些关税至关重要，因为它将影响到每一个人，无论贫富、老少、强弱。回顾一下1929年至1939年的历史……那段时期有时被称为大萧条！

Sorry to frighten anyone, but presently, it is that serious.

很抱歉吓到大家，但目前情况就是这么严重。

Steph
Thanks for the question.

感谢提问。

Unless someone stops the tRumpf Train right now, America’s economy will be weakened. So will Canada’s and Mexico’s. The North American auto industry will never fully recover. There will be a recession, stock markets and 401ks will fall in value- all while the cost to live in a house or rent an apartment, buy groceries own and drive a car will all go UP.

除非有人现在就阻止特朗普这列‘火车’，否则美国经济将会受到削弱。加拿大和墨西哥的经济也会如此。北美汽车产业将永远无法完全复苏。将会出现经济衰退，股市和401(k)养老金计划的价值将会下跌——而与此同时，住房、租房、购买食品杂货以及拥有和使用汽车的成本都将上涨。

The next problem for America will be finding trade partners. No one trusts the U.S. anymore. No one trusts any treaty or document signed by the U.S. government. It has proven itself untrustworthy and not honourable in its actions.

美国接下来面临的问题将是寻找贸易伙伴。如今没人再信任美国了。没人相信美国政府签署的任何条约或文件。事实证明，美国的所作所为不可信且不光彩。

Nancy MacIntyre
IMO the US economy will be considerably weakened by the trade wars. What few in the US realize is there has been Anti US sentiment in Europe for decades and Trump is almost a caricature of all the qualities Europeans dislike about US citizens. Arrogant, rude, ignorant and proud of it and pretty much despised by Europeans and Canadians. He not only instituted this trade war by violating a trade agreement that HE negotiated and signed in his previous term, he threatened to invade Canada and Greenland,( part of the kingdom of Denmark). Both countries have been long time US allies.

在我看来，贸易战将极大地削弱美国经济。很少有美国人意识到，几十年来欧洲一直存在反美情绪，而特朗普几乎就是欧洲人所厌恶的美国公民所有特质的典型代表。傲慢、粗鲁、无知还以此为荣，深受欧洲人和加拿大人的鄙视。他不仅违反自己在上一任期谈判并签署的贸易协定挑起了这场贸易战，还威胁要入侵加拿大和格陵兰（丹麦王国的一部分）。这两个国家长期以来都是美国的盟友。

The US is now regarded as an unreliable and untrustworthy trading partner and a potentially hostile nation. The EU and Canadian citizens are boycotting the US. Portugal has cancelled a contract for F-35 fighters and Canada is expected to cancel hers. EU countries are seeking sources outside the US to equip their military. Even if Trump dropped all threats of tariffs tomorrow, the damage to international relations has been done.

美国如今被视为一个不可靠、不值得信任的贸易伙伴，以及一个潜在的敌对国家。欧盟和加拿大民众正在抵制美国。葡萄牙已经取消了一份F - 35战斗机合同，预计加拿大也会取消其相关合同。欧盟国家正在寻求美国以外的渠道来装备本国军队。即便特朗普明天撤销所有关税威胁，对国际关系造成的损害也已无法挽回。

If the proposed tariffs are instituted, the prices of virtually all US consumer goods will increase, fueling inflation. US manufacturers who are dependent on imported goods like steel, aluminum and components for cars are already stating that if the tariffs go into effect they may have to close US operations because the increased cost of goods will make operations unprofitable. Once defense industry sales are lost, it will be difficult to replace them. If auto makers close operations thousands of US workers will lose their jobs along with the thousands being laid off from government jobs. Disposable incomes will decrease resulting in less consumption and that will further impact jobs. The impact of the boycotts may linger as some who have found alternate products may not return to buying US goods.

如果拟议的关税得以实施，几乎所有美国消费品的价格都将上涨，从而加剧通货膨胀。依赖钢铁、铝和汽车零部件等进口商品的美国制造商已经表示，如果关税生效，他们可能不得不关闭在美国的业务，因为商品成本的增加将导致运营无利可图。一旦失去国防工业的订单，将很难找到替代业务。如果汽车制造商关闭工厂，成千上万的美国工人将失业，同时还有数千名政府雇员也会被裁。可支配收入将会减少，进而导致消费减少，这将进一步影响就业。抵制行动的影响可能会持续存在，因为一些已经找到了替代产品的人可能不会再购买美国商品。

So, the question for me is not will the US economy be weakened, it is will it survive?

所以，对我来说问题不在于美国经济是否会走弱，而在于它能否挺过去？
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Nick Thornhill
The US will undoubtedly lose in so many ways, but is too stupid to realise it yet.

美国无疑会在很多方面遭受失败，但它却愚蠢到尚未意识到这一点。

The rest of us will suffer some pain, but will emerge stronger. The civilised world has long recognised that Murica is not part of it, but has tolerated the situation because we’ve apparently been on the ‘same side’. No longer.

我们其他人会遭受一些痛苦，但会变得更强大。文明世界早就认识到‘穆里卡’（注：这里是对美国调侃的说法）不属于其中，但一直容忍这种情况，因为我们显然曾站在‘同一阵营’。但不会再这样了。

Canada will diversify its markets and be paid the going rate.

加拿大将使市场多元化，并获得现行价格的报酬。

Europe and Australasia will stop sharing ‘intelligence’ and won’t buy American - you’re compromised. Airbus is already larger than Boeing. China is ‘the future’.

欧洲和澳大拉西亚将停止分享“情报”，并且不会再购买美国产品——你们已不可信。空客的规模已经超过波音。中国才是“未来”。
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Murica is fucked. And you brought it on yourselves…

美国完蛋了。这都是你们自己造成的……

Raymond
If things go According to Hoyle there might be a temporary bump in US producers on a number of products. But it’s being approached bass-ackwards. IMO.

如果一切按常规发展，美国一些产品的生产商可能会出现暂时的增长。但在我看来，目前的处理方式完全错误。

It will take years to rescale the needed plants delivering a replacement product. At a certain point, however, a business is going to need to export to remain viable. The USA is not that populated. Other countries should be able to benefit from our products. If the USA has isolated itself to non-trustable status we are fairly relegated to an economy only enabled by its own citizens. Small. Maybe somewhat sustainable.Before incurring a tariff war … infrastructure determines its viability. If both parties are capable of producing and “other” country can deliver it less expensively — a tariff helps protect the homegrown product. If the capability isn’t there and the need is … we import at a higher premium or buy the homegrown more expensive replacement.

重新扩大生产替代产品所需的工厂规模需要数年时间。然而，在某个时候，企业为了维持生存将需要出口产品。美国的人口并没有那么多。其他国家应该能够从我们的产品中受益。如果美国将自己孤立到不可信任的地步，那么我们实际上就只能依赖本国公民来推动经济发展了。规模小，也许还算有点可持续性。在引发关税战之前……基础设施决定了其生存能力。如果双方都有生产能力，而“其他”国家能够以更低的成本供货，关税有助于保护本土产品。如果没有生产能力但又有需求……我们要么以更高的价格进口产品，要么购买更昂贵的本土替代产品。

We weren’t prepared for the war. We seem to be powered by rhetoric. The plan feels like the laser light used to keep my cat engaged. I feel pretty certain I will awake tomorrow and something will be completely changed — explained as being flexible. Feels more like a plan has no actual reasoned foundation that is finalized. Other countries are reacting to the chaotic message.

我们没有为战争做好准备。我们似乎是被花言巧语推动着。这个计划感觉就像用来逗我家猫咪玩的激光笔发出的光。我很确定明天醒来时，某些事情会彻底改变——而这种改变会被解释为灵活应变。感觉这个计划实际上并没有经过深思熟虑且确定下来的基础。其他国家正在对这种混乱的信号做出反应。

As I’ve stated on many a comment before — politicians are not our friends. They don’t walk in our shoes. They will feel no negative affect on their lifestyle no matter the outcome for the average worker in the USA.

正如我之前在很多评论中所说——政客们不是我们的朋友。他们不了解我们的处境。无论美国普通工人的结局如何，他们的生活方式都不会受到负面影响。

Jason Thomson
Oh it'll be weaker. Do you think the world us gonna forget about trump and pretend we are friends again? Trump has destroyed Americas global reputation, I'm 51 so might have 25-30 odd years left, I'll never buy another American product or visit there again. Your nation has shown us you can't be trusted and are only one one election away from another trump.

哦，它（美国）会变得更弱。你觉得世界会忘掉特朗普，然后假装我们又能友好相处吗？特朗普已经毁掉了美国的全球声誉。我51岁了，大概还能活25到30年左右，我再也不会买美国产品，也不会再去美国了。你们国家向我们表明了你们不可信，而且只要再经历一次选举，就可能又选出一个像特朗普那样的人。
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Heather Goddard
When the American people finally get rid of Trump, there will need to be a lot of bridges to be rebuilt and apologies to be made before ordinary folk will be happy to buy American products again.

当美国人民最终摆脱特朗普之后，需要重新修复许多关系并作出诸多道歉，普通民众才会再度乐意购买美国产品。

As an example from ordinary folk, there is an American clothing brand I love as it has a tall range that fits me perfectly. I am currently researching other clothing brands to find a perfect fit elsewhere. Every day I get emails from my preferred clothing brand with multiple offers on new season wear as well as clearance. Sometimes I have had two or three emails in a day. That smacks of desperation to me as previously it would be emails once a week or every two weeks. If I find a different brand why would I switch back in four years time?

举一个普通人的例子，我喜欢一个美国服装品牌，因为它有适合高个子的系列，非常适合我。目前我正在研究其他服装品牌，想在别的地方找到完全合身的衣服。我每天都会收到我喜欢的这个服装品牌的邮件，里面有新一季服装的多种优惠，还有清仓信息。有时候我一天能收到两三封邮件。在我看来，这有点急不可待了，因为以前一周或两周才会收到一封邮件。如果我找到了其他品牌，四年后我为什么还要换回这个品牌呢？

Kevin Carruthers
It will take some time but in the end, America is going to look like Russia. Run by a handful of oligarchs and the vast majority of the population are working poor. Unfortunately for the American people, Trump has decided to alienate every single trade partner the great USofA has. All at the same time. As the other countries find more stable trading partners, America loses out. Trump is already talking about trade with Russia and North Korea probably won't be far behind. If that's what the US is going to align with, America’s world viewed reputation will drop faster than the economy. I sincerely hope that King Trump is stopped before he really does do permanent damage. America is already decades away from being trusted again after this

这需要一些时间，但最终，美国会变得和俄罗斯一样。由少数寡头统治，绝大多数民众是工作贫困族。对美国民众来说不幸的是，特朗普决定同时疏远美国所有的贸易伙伴。随着其他国家找到更稳定的贸易伙伴，美国将遭受损失。特朗普已经在谈论与俄罗斯的贸易，与朝鲜的贸易可能也为期不远。如果这就是美国要结盟的对象，美国在世界上的声誉下降速度将比其经济下滑速度还快。我真心希望在“特朗普国王”造成永久性破坏之前，他能被制止。在这之后，美国要重新赢得信任恐怕得花几十年时间。
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Yvan Lindekens
Seriously… your orange babboon-in-chief is treathening Panama, Mexico, Canada, Greenland thus Denmark, the EU, China, … with (trade) wars. The US has left the Paris climate agreement (again!), USAID is no longer functioning, he’s treathening to leave NATO. His toyboy is demolishing organisations like CDC and NOAA, which have an important role to play, both in the US and internationally. A few days ago one of our leading virologists complained that they no longer receive information on the bird flu epidemic in the US. IT MIGHT HAVE ESCAPED YOUR ATTENTION, BUT VIRUSSES DON’T STOP AT COUNTRY BORDERS…

说真的……你们那位橙色的首席蠢货正以（贸易）战争威胁巴拿马、墨西哥、加拿大、格陵兰（进而威胁丹麦）、欧盟、中国…… 美国（又一次）退出了《巴黎气候协定》，美国国际开发署已不再运转，他还威胁要退出北约。他的手下正在瓦解像美国疾病控制与预防中心和美国国家海洋和大气管理局这样在美国乃至国际上都发挥重要作用的机构。几天前，我们一位顶尖病毒学家抱怨说，他们再也收不到有关美国禽流感疫情的信息了。你可能没注意到，但病毒可不会在国界处停下脚步……

To top it all off, drug addicted rocket boy does everything in his power to strenghten extreme right wing groups in Brittain, Germany, Italy, while the orange conn man is begging Norway and/or the EU to send eggs to the US…

最离谱的是，吸毒的火箭小子竭尽全力在英国、德国、意大利扶持极右翼团体，而那个橙色骗子却在求挪威和/或欧盟给美国送鸡蛋……

So what do you think? How strong can a country become economically, after it has destroyed it’s governemental fabric and it’s science and alienated all it’s friends and allies?

那么你怎么看呢？一个国家在破坏了自身的政府架构、科学体系，还疏远了所有的朋友和盟友之后，其经济能有多强大呢？

Nicky O'Flynn
Well unless there's some dramatic turn around it won't end anytime soon…but the damage has already been done. The USA is weaker in every way, the economy, it's standing in the world, the respect other countries had, those decades long ‘friendships’…already all on the way out.

嗯，除非出现重大转机，否则这种情况短期内不会结束……但损害已经造成。美国在各个方面都变弱了，经济、在世界上的地位、其他国家曾经给予的尊重，还有那些长达数十年的‘友谊’……都已在消逝。

Its nnot just trade wars, Trump thinks he can shit on everyone and do what the hell he pleases.. He thinks he can simply take over Canada and Greenland lol and I honestly believe he thinks the world will support him. And if they don't? Well he'll just try and flex his pathetic muscles and bully them into cowtowing. Except that's all he is, a bully and we all know how weak bullies actually are and how fast they run when their victims stand up to them.

这可不只是贸易战，特朗普觉得他可以对所有人颐指气使，随心所欲地为所欲为。他居然认为自己能轻易吞并加拿大和格陵兰，哈哈。说实话，我觉得他以为全世界都会支持他。要是别人不支持呢？那他就只会试图显摆他那可怜的“肌肉”，威逼别人屈服。但他本质就是个恶霸，而我们都清楚恶霸实际上有多软弱，当受害者奋起反抗时，他们跑得有多快。

With trump in power the US has lost everything they ever had and there's little to no chance of it changing. The only way the US will be anything but a laughing stock is when they get rid of Mr Marmalade and his side kick muskrat.

特朗普执政期间，美国失去了曾经拥有的一切，而且几乎没有改变的可能。美国要想不沦为笑柄，唯一的办法就是摆脱“果酱先生”（暗指特朗普）和他的跟班“麝鼠”。

Brenton
In all likelihood, the U.S. economy will be much weaker. There are strong indications that the U.S. economy will go into recession that could lead to a depression.

十有八九，美国经济将会疲软得多。有强烈迹象表明，美国经济将陷入衰退，甚至可能引发萧条。

First, Trump duties will contribute significantly to the current rate of inflation.

首先，特朗普时期的关税将对当前的通货膨胀率产生重大影响。

Second, lay offs in the public service will contribute thousands of unemployed to growing corporate lay offs.

其次，公共部门的裁员将使数千人失业，加剧企业裁员带来的失业问题。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Third, declining consumer confidence will lead to reduced spending. Sectors, such as automotives in particular, will see sharp declines because of high prices the result of Trump duties on parts and finished vehicles. The result will be industry lay offs and plant closings.

第三，消费者信心下降将导致支出减少。由于特朗普对零部件和成品汽车加征关税导致价格居高不下，尤其是汽车等行业将出现大幅下滑。其结果将是行业裁员和工厂关闭。

Ray Comeau
It is challenging to rationalize how the US could be stringer after the current trade wars end. We should note there is also a technology / chip war in place, and that one does impact trade, but in a different manner.

要解释美国在当前贸易战结束后如何能变得更强大是很困难的。我们应该注意到，目前还存在一场科技/芯片战争，这场战争确实会对贸易产生影响，但方式有所不同。

Trump’s first trade war (2018–2020) did not help US industry, That tariffs gave US industry higher production costs, boosted bankruptcy among US farmers, and created job loses in down stream industries. There were some revised trade agreements that occurred. NAFTA was replaced by USMCA. Now trump wants to scrap some USMCA terms.

特朗普发起的第一场贸易战（2018 - 2020年）并未给美国工业带来帮助。关税增加了美国工业的生产成本，加剧了美国农民的破产情况，还导致下游产业出现失业现象。期间有一些贸易协定得到了修订。《北美自由贸易协定》（NAFTA）被《美墨加协定》（USMCA）所取代。如今，特朗普想要废除《美墨加协定》的一些条款。

Trump is causing a lot of instability for global industries and foreign governments. There is no upside to Trumps demands for either industry or other governments. Meanwhile US industry fears making big plans due to the instability it is creating. This opens opportunities for competitors to move ahead.

特朗普正在给全球各行业和外国政府带来诸多不稳定因素。特朗普的要求对各行业和其他国家政府都没有任何好处。与此同时，由于特朗普制造的不稳定因素，美国企业不敢制定重大规划。这为竞争对手向前发展创造了机会。

America will come out of this war war weaker and that will have long term impact on the US economy.

美国将在这场战争结束后实力变弱，这将对美国经济产生长期影响。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Re-shoring manufacturing jobs to the US is flogging a dead horse. US isolation driven through aggressive tactics only makes others seek alternatives.

将制造业工作岗位回流到美国是在做无用功。美国通过激进策略推行的孤立主义只会促使其他国家寻求替代方案。